Is It Time to be Cautious?

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This.

The smart investors right now are riding the wave of negative sentiment and in fact capitalising on it. Not in Sydney or Melbourne of course (no way are the savvy folk touching these right now), but other places.

See.... the nation's people largely read Sydney and Melbourne's news and are affected by those places' sentiment. Thet follow the leader on that.

So... if you've been spending the past 6-12 months (like I have) doing your macro and micro economic due diligence/research mapping on NON-Syd/Mel locations that kffer tremendous upside opportunity, my experience in 2017 thus far has led me to believe that one can profiteer greatly.

E.g. go into another city/state/town you are confident on (having done all your heavy research already), and ride that sad and dour sentiment wave in your negotations with vendors. Unbeknownst owners/vendors in Adelaide (for example, but could be Cairns, Launceston, parts of Brisbane, or any other area that actually DOES have upshot) might be thinking "crap i gotta sell for whatever i can grt because the WHOLE (AU) MARKET is struggle street right now". In reality, it really isnt, in their particular area, but they just think it is.

Thats when you strike

 

You are correct venerable Cobra....it would not touch Melbourne or Sydney with a barge pole at the moment...will leave that to the great unwashed.

However.....Geelong, Brisbane (non lower socio Logan), Hobart, Canberra, and Adelaide how upside.......

The follow the leader tribes are to busy buying at the top in Melbourne, Sydney and Lower Socio Logan.

Worse still seeing people building duplexes now...insane! Some stories I am hearing are just scary.....the numbers just don't work. Better still people buying top end property at $2.5-3m plus......in Sydney and Melbourne..some are in places with nutin going for them like Castle Hill, West Pennat Hills, etc.. The will drop 700k quick smart if the sentiment changes.

 

Castle Hill. What a nightmare! Yes... yes... do tell me, pray-tell... just how much demand ia there, again, for highrise studio apartments 35km (and a clunky metro-train-train connection commute to CBD, or a metro-train to Parramatta CBD...) from the city?

Sure there are good schools, but people already overpay for 3-1-1's in the hills district to access these schools for their kids. But studio, 1-bed (amd maybe 2-bed?) apartments? Fail to see what the market is for them. Only nearby uni is WSU and those campuses are still a commute. So... other than transient short term uni students, who else?

The retail staff at Castle Towers?? Hhhmm.. I guess they have the ramp-up Norwest business park mega plan and turning into not just business but resi (more studios... to accompany the 6-bed, 3-car, tennis court mansions of Santa Barbara I mean 'Bella Vista Waters' lol). But the Norwest park to compete for corporate tenancies, needs to lure them from major (and closer/better serviced) existing business nodes such as CBD, north sydney, North Ryde, and maybe Parramatta too. Good luck. It is just a touch too far away to be practicable. It is still far too far from Kingsford Smith (I spose in 10 years it might benefit from nearby Badgery's Creek Airport). But ten years is a bloody long time to buy and HOPE/WAIT on your expensive little Castle Hill studio that will have its yields eaten away by gyms pools lifts tennis courts et al (as thr building at the 10-year age also corrodes away and requires 10-yearly replacement works etc.). Sounds like a pretty unappealing stock to me..

Look the area is leafy and green and nice people live there, dont get me wrong or say I am trashing the hills as an area or the people in it - I am not - but yes, I AM trashing the resi property investment potential of it