Is he finally right?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MTR, 5th Apr, 2020.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
Tags:
  1. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,035
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    It'll get deleted quicker than two shakes of a duck's tail. ( Grandpa's favorite saying) :D
     
    Marg4000 and Propertunity like this.
  2. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    28th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    2,854
    Location:
    Darwin
    Last time I checked Dent was communicating using videos rather than text.

    This gives him better analytics and allows him to communicate with body language as well as actual content.

    It also makes it harder for you or me or a journo to go back in time and revisit and fact check what was said previously.

    Think about it.
     
    MikeyBallarat likes this.
  3. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,035
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Not sure why anyone would waste their time fact checking him. He's totally bogus IMHO.
     
    MikeyBallarat likes this.
  4. Tyler Durden

    Tyler Durden Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jan, 2016
    Posts:
    350
    Location:
    Australia
    Exactly and it's also easier for Dent to profit from Youtube, Birch does the same at the opposite end of the spectrum. They'd both probably make more money if they made cooking videos instead.

    Shane Elliot (ANZ CEO) knows how to share an opinion without rousing a readers anxiety...

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...act-will-be-generational-20200403-p54gpb.html
     
  5. ndpjai

    ndpjai Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    15th May, 2016
    Posts:
    343
    Location:
    Sydney
    If one door closes, then several doors open. IMO, we may see 5-7% drop in prices over the next 6-9 months based on current trends, but could change once stabilisation phases kick off.

    If you are in a stable position, who likes to take opportunities inc calculated risks, its on the way. I'm one of them.
     
  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,786
    Location:
    My World
    Personally just ignore it

    Wait and watch, if you have money burning a hole in your pocket .... relax ...just sit tight, what investors need now is to not erode capital, too easy to lose money in bear markets
     
  7. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,035
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Agree. It's what too many in the stock market do. Panicked sellers are their own worst enemy. You see it alot less in RE due to reduced liquidity and selling costs.

    Now is not the time to panic ( panicking never yeilds good outcomes). But human psychology will never change. And so the cycles/flow of money in and out of hands will continue.
     
    MTR likes this.
  8. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Oct, 2015
    Posts:
    1,693
    Location:
    Victoria
    India is probably going under after this. They are so screwed at the moment.
     
    kierank likes this.
  9. Woodjda

    Woodjda Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jun, 2019
    Posts:
    212
    Location:
    Alphington
    Price drops depend a lot on the AUD value as well. Property prices will fall. Rents will fall. There's just no doubt about that in the short term with unemployment increasing. 20% maximum price fall with AUD at 45c or so before the economy picks up (due to mining and tourism flying in say 2 years) is entirely plausible. At the same time if mining does go well meaning we struggle to devalue the currency while the rest of the economy blows up 40%+ in Sydney and Melbourne is possible as well. Massive currency devaluation with AUD down at 20c isn't impossible either and in that situation nominal house prices probably go up after a 6 month decline.

    In any case the chance that the value of australian housing doesn't drop significantly in global purchasing power terms in the next 2-3 years is basically zero. Too much of our economy relies on it and the massive household debt we have.
     
    TheSackedWiggle, namrata and SOULFLY3 like this.
  10. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Jul, 2018
    Posts:
    600
    Location:
    Melbourne
    50% for property is very very very unlikely, but 50% for sharemarket doesn't seem too outrageous to me. ASX 200 hit a high in November 2007 of 6851.5 before tumbling 54.5% to a low of 3120.8 in March 2009.

    But yes, Dent is a wingnut.
     
    Last edited: 5th Apr, 2020
    kierank likes this.
  11. Terry_w

    Terry_w Lawyer, Tax Adviser and Mortgage broker in Sydney Business Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    41,672
    Location:
    Australia wide
    As soon as I read the title I thought it was about dent.

    Didn't he have a bet each way when he wrote:
    The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History
    and
    The Roaring 2000s: Building The Wealth And Lifestyle You Desire In The Greatest Boom In History
     
    MTR likes this.
  12. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jan, 2016
    Posts:
    8,414
    Location:
    Gold Coast
    But Dent said:
    I believe people will start to buy in when the sharemarket drops 40%.

    It might go lower in the short term, possibly even down to 50% over the medium term.

    But to drop another 20% in real terms (from 50% to 60%), one has to be smoking something IMHO.

    Maybe Dent is a regular client of @datto :D.
     
    datto likes this.
  13. Vine Street

    Vine Street Active Member

    Joined:
    8th Nov, 2018
    Posts:
    40
    Location:
    Melbourne
    There's some big questions out there

    How long does the lockdown last?

    When the lockdown does end, are the government prepared to stimulate the economy properly?

    Is there a deadlier second wave?

    When is the vaccine available? Is there ever a vaccine available?

    Depending on your answers to these questions would mean Dent could be right.

    But if the lockdown last only 6 months, and there's a vaccine available worldwide in March 2021 then no, property doesn't drop 50%

    We are well placed to buy if there are distressed sellers - but certainly in no rush and would only be looking for bargain. Likewise with shares
     
    Wattle and Foxdan like this.
  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,786
    Location:
    My World

    Haha.... how many years he been peddling this
     
  15. Terry_w

    Terry_w Lawyer, Tax Adviser and Mortgage broker in Sydney Business Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    41,672
    Location:
    Australia wide
    But to be fair, there may have been a boom/bust inbetween books.
     
    datto likes this.
  16. Foxdan

    Foxdan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    457
    Location:
    Hills district, sydney
    A lot of comments on here seem very naive about what’s happenning in the ground amongst the small businesses and amongst normal working families. A huge amount of employees are being laid off and most of the small businesses are going under or close to going under.

    These are not poorly run businesses - these are businesses that are collateral damage from the government enforced shut downs.

    For everyone here who is making comments saying it isn’t possible - go talk to people who’s jobs can’t be done at home (physios, dentists, sports centre workers, event management, cafes, restaurants). There is no end in sight for these businesses and most will go under.

    The flow on effects from all these people will be what causes a massive shift. People will need to sell, buyers won’t be there. The financial carnage has only just begun.

    Im a small business owner that’s been forced to close and I have no date i can reopen and multiple staff that will soon be at centrelink. I have a family with kids, multiple properties, shares and an smsf. I’m financially responsible and have plenty of buffers. But no buffer can withstand a complete loss of business revenue and a commercial landlord that still demands payment regardless of whether I can open. My wife can no longer work either because of the bans. My story is not uncommon or unique.

    I can tell you that most of the comments above are naive and you don’t understand what’s actually happenning.

    The pain has only just started. It’s going to get much much worse.
     
    MTR, Wattle, GoneFishing and 7 others like this.
  17. Vine Street

    Vine Street Active Member

    Joined:
    8th Nov, 2018
    Posts:
    40
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Agree it will get much worse - which is why I'd only be buying a bargain - and there are no bargains yet

    There will be a large drop in demand for rentals - residential and commercial

    From what I'm hearing expect some form of lockdown for 12-18 months

    I'm fully aware of where things are at as I've been following the virus closely since mid January - and it's had a major impact on my business
     
  18. Foxdan

    Foxdan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    457
    Location:
    Hills district, sydney
    I’m expecting 12-18 month lockdown for my industry. Unless the government puts in legislation or a package to help commercial
    Tenants - 99% will go bankrupt over that time span. Despite Scotty from
    Marketing suggesting we just “Chat to our landlord and make arrangements” - it doesn’t work when u have zero revenue.
     
  19. Vine Street

    Vine Street Active Member

    Joined:
    8th Nov, 2018
    Posts:
    40
    Location:
    Melbourne
    There'll be something for tenants.

    If there isn't then commercial property goes right through the floor as there will be no one left wanting to rent it when the virus is beaten
     
    Handyandy likes this.
  20. The_Billy

    The_Billy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Mar, 2018
    Posts:
    153
    Location:
    Sydney

    The only issue is that the market will have a resistance point that no analyst can quantify as there is too many variables to consider. A 50% drop on $1mil for Sydney is HUGE. On its way down to 500k so much can happen to stop it in its tracks. Everything from this point onwards is just speculation from everyone.

    How many more new buyers can now afford (demand)

    How many people will work multiple jobs to hold and avoid selling despite difficulties they face (supply)

    How many people will upsize or downsize PPOR or for better investment props (demand and supply)

    How many will remain employed I.e. 15% unemployment means 85% employment - obviously not that simple (demand)

    Australian dollar drops (demand)

    Interest rates drop (demand)

    Stimulus (demand and supply)

    Etc etc etc

    It will drop, 50%, I dunno

    Best of luck with your situation ! I hope it all works out, I and many others I know will be following suit.
     
    Foxdan and Vine Street like this.