Is 2016 the year you’ll make a killing in the property market?

Is 2016 the year you’ll make a killing in the property market? The experts give us their 2016 predictions.

Source: News.com.au December 18, 2015, 9:15am




John Symond from Aussie Home Loans believes the steam will come out of the Sydney and Melbourne markets next year.




THE property market had a roller coaster ride in 2015.

Values skyrocketed in some capital cities at the beginning of the year, particularly the southern capitals of Sydney and Melbourne, and started a downhill slide in the resource rich capitals of Perth and Darwin.


Source: CoreLogic RP Data.Source:The Courier-Mail


While at some point it may have seemed like prices were on a never ending upward trajectory, as the end of the year loomed closer, even the powerhouse markets experienced a slowdown.

It can be hard to predict what lies ahead, but we’ve asked the experts to have a go and give us their forecasts for the property market in 2016.

John Symond – Aussie Home Loans

“The eastern seaboard has had a big year in terms of housing values led by Sydney, Melbourne and to a lesser degree but southeast Queensland I believe still has a way to go,’’ he said.

“The other states have been very patchy, Western Australia, especially Perth, has been doing it tough, Adelaide has shown a little bit of positive movement, but the pendulum never swings far either way in South Australia.

“The good news is the market is cooling, I think that is terrific, because as far as Sydney and Melbourne is concerned we don’t want these high increases to just continue because that will lead to a correction.

“I don’t see that happening. The steam is coming out and the market in Sydney and Melbourne will revert to a more healthy real estate market and I think that is really important.



Place to watch in 2016: “The best places to buy in 2016 will be inner-city suburbs of capital cities, close to transport hubs, workplaces and amenities. These locations should generate strong income for investors and capital growth for them and owner-occupiers.’’


Ray White chairman Brian White tips Sydney’s eastern suburbs and the Gold Coast for investment next year.Source:News Corp Australia


Brian White - Chairman, Ray White

Mr White said Sydney’s eastern suburbs were the pick of investments for long term growth in 2016, along with the Gold Coast and Melbourne’s bayside suburbs.

“The appeal of the inner city areas over the last decade and more has transformed real estate markets. There is little evidence this trend is not set to continue into 2016 and beyond.

“The eastern suburbs are continuing to set remarkable prices. But the entire ‘ring’ around Sydney Harbour is predicted to retain strong popularity.”

Unlike a number of other commentators, Mr White believes Sydney will lead the way for growth again in 2016, though at a more subdued rate than previous years.

Predicting growth of 5 per cent for the harbour city, Mr White said that some of the more astonishing sales results of recent years may peter out, but values would regain momentum.

“As the year progresses, price increases will again be a feature,” he said. “Especially if the economy performs as anticipated. The recent rise in the Australian employment numbers is excellent news.”

He tips Sydney for 5 per cent growth, Melbourne, 4 per cent, Brisbane, 2 per cent, Adelaide 1 per cent and Perth to remain flat.

Place to watch in 2016:Sydney’s eastern suburbs along with the Gold Coast and Melbourne’s bayside suburbs.


LJ Hooker CEO, Grant Harrod. Picture: Stephen Archer.Source:News Corp Australia


Grant Harrod - LJ Hooker CEO

Affordability, a falling Aussie dollar and the upcoming Commonwealth Games will make the Gold Coast the place to be for property value in 2016.

Mr Harrod predicts 5 to 10 per cent growth, as it takes the lead while Sydney and Melbourne flatten out.

“There is great buying in the Gold Coast and in southeast Queensland, from the border up to Brisbane,” Mr Harrod said.

While the Gold Coast can expect big things, his outlook is not so bright for the rest of the country.

“Sydney and Melbourne are softening,” he said. “Melbourne will probably suffer from an oversupply in apartments, with a lot of completed developments coming to market.”

Adelaide, Hobart and Darwin are all likely to see a 2 per cent to 3 per cent fall in values, while Perth’s post-resource boom downward trend may soon find a floor.

He believes suburbs in Sydney’s southwest will do well in 2016.

“The state government’s commitment to infrastructure means there are good opportunities for families to invest in the southwest growth corridor,” he said. “The M5 widening, Westconnex and Badgerys Creek will all have a positive impact.”

He tips Gold Coast - five to ten per cent growth. Sydney/ Melbourne - flat (Melbourne inner city apartments to fall around 5 per cent), Brisbane - flat, Hobart/Adelaide/Darwin/Perth- two to three per cent fall.

Place to watch in 2016:The Gold Coast is the place to be for property value in 2016.


Charles Tarbey at the recent launch of the Century 21 branded Monopoly Game. He believes Brisbane could be a good place to invest in 2016.Source:Supplied


Charles Tarbey – Chairman Century 21 Australia

Mr Tarbey said the reduced interest rates at the beginning of 2015 stimulated the market in certain areas well beyond where it should have been.

“I think prices went a little higher than they should and I don’t think some areas of Sydney will have growth in the next few years.

“Other areas are still moving along okay but there are some areas I would be very surprised if there wasn’t negative growth in some parts of Sydney. I think Brisbane is poised for a nice steady growth. People in Sydney and Melbourne have gained a significant amount of equity in their properties, they are going to look to invest and they are not going to invest in Perth because it is still moving sideways, slightly downward and sideways.

“Adelaide has been stable for some time and there are certain parts of Adelaide where there was an oversupply. The only other place to buy because you are not going to buy an investment property too easily in a rising market like Sydney or Melbourne, is in Brisbane.

“I think it is going to be a very steady market and you will find that Brisbane will get nice good quality growth.”

Place to watch in 2016: “I believe that the area south of Melbourne from Brighton to Frankston displays potential for 2016. The combination of a high level of owner occupied properties, improved infrastructure and proximity to beaches are attributes that many people may find attractive.’’


John McGrath reckons major growth in 2016 will be in New South Wales regional areas and southeast Queensland.Source:News Corp Australia


John McGrath - CEO McGrath Real Estate

“I think the major growth in 2016 will come from both New South Wales regionals and southeast Queensland.

“Both have missed most of the price growth that Sydney and Melbourne enjoyed over the past few years and are therefore presenting very good value. I suspect both investors and sea changers will be eyeing off these markets.

“Specifically, I see opportunities in Wollongong as well as the Central Coast. Their proximity to Sydney combined with the significant value gap will be very attractive to metropolitan buyers.

“In terms of southeast Queensland, if you focused on suburbs closer to the Brisbane River, CBD and the Gold Coast markets you’ll enjoy significant capital gain over the next few years.

“I think Sydney has seen almost all its price growth for the immediate future. I’m predicting that prices will hold around these current levels for the next six to 12 months but there are still pockets of Sydney that provide good value buying. There is a lot of infrastructure activity at the moment which will benefit a number of areas, resulting in growth in those areas.’’

Place to watch in 2016: New South Wales regional areas and southeast Queensland.


Mike McCarthy, director, Barry Plant.Source:Supplied


Mike McCarthy, chief executive officer of the Barry Plant Group.

Mr McCarthy expects the best price growth to be in Melbourne’s middle and outer suburbs in 2016.

He predicts strong price growth for at least the first six months of 2016, before the market flattens to more modest increases.

Mr McCarthy said the average sale price for the Barry Plant Group, jumped nearly 21 per cent over 12 months in November, with similar volumes to 2014.

“They’ve had some big numbers in the inner suburbs for about 18 months now, whereas until May our average price increase was about 4 per cent.

“Since then we’ve seen the double digit increases across the group. I would expect to see it keep going at this sort of rate, (although) I think you will see it pulling back to more like 10 per cent for the first half of next year.”

“The other big one is the Asian market. While that has had some impact at the top end, I think for many of the suburbs in those middle and outer suburbs, they’re not as impacted by that factor at all.”

Place to watch in 2016: Mr McCarthy said top suburbs for buyers were Ringwood, Croydon, Wantirna and Boronia in the east, and Sunshine, Deer Park and St Albans in the west.

 

yep

 

For me too Dave . 2016 is gonna be my biggest year since I started in this crazy game.

 

I've doubled my footprint in less than 12 months, so if I have just over half the growth of the last 12 months, will be the biggest year ever.

 

I've learned so much over the last 8-10 years, so, so many mistakes. I feel this year is when the lessons and changes I've made will pay off. Glad I didn't quit when I got it wrong.

 

No.
I've had a few things happen in my life recently that has made put investing on the back burner for the time being. However, things are slowly starting to improve and I'm looking to buy again.
I feel that to "make a killing" you have to have growth, either market growth or generated growth. I don't think the markets that I'm invested in will grow significantly in 2016 and I'm basically too lazy to generate growth.
So I don't think or plan on making a killing, but I'm hoping that I'll increase my net worth by $100k or more by the end of the year.

 

For sure. Will be my best year to date. Expanding the portfolio and making great friends along the way!

 

Will I make a killing in the property market in 2016? Well, I've got a better chance this year compared to this time last year, my property portfolio last year was a big fat zero

 

To me, thats a killing

 

2016
and 2015
and 2014
and 2013
and 2012
and 2011....

 

Unfortunately stats are just that, Perth start of cycle 2012-2015 only 9%, it was more like 40%+ from 2012-2014 (mid), after this then the Perth market fell. See how stats can be misleading.

Melb - Croydon, Ringwood already seeing 40%+ gains, this article was written Dec 2015. Today, March 2016 - Melb is currently hottest market, certain pockets will outperform others, buy properties where you can add value, middle ring.

I have taken my profits from Perth, Syd and Melb markets during 2012-2015.

2016 for me is basically completing and offloading remaining developments in Melb, cashing up as I believe 2017 will be a very different ball game in the investment world just my opinion



mtr

 

Unless someone signs their property over to me I won't be making much this year

 

I guess it's all about where you're coming from. I see it that it's only an increase of 4% on the value of my portfolio. But I do agree with you that as a sum of money, it's a decent amount. Though I have made more than that in each of the previous three years.

As in buying a property?

 

Arh..no. As in someone gifting me a property.

Highly unlikely I know but it would sure be nice

 

For me 2016 is going to be debt reduction to start with then I'll see if i'm in any position to buy again later on in the year.

If i'm not in a position to buy, that's ok, i'm not going to sweat it.

 

Last year was our best year.....this year more consolidation. I don't see big things happening for us this year. Some more growth from markets outside of Sydney, sure.....but as we don't have as many as we did in Sydney, in other markets that are growing like Sydney did, the growth won't be as high in $ terms.

 

Slow and steady.
I was hoping to pick up a good deal on at a Unpaid Rates auction.... that didn't happen. Unit sold for almost double what I was hoping it would sell for

 

Last two years were pretty good, can't see this year being amazing but there are a few things I have in the pipeline. More gearing up for 2017- that's gonna be a big one I feel.

 

I'd love to grow and purchase more in 2016, but not sure if this will be possible. Even if I don't purchase again this year, I'd be happy with even 4-5% capital growth across the existing portfolio for this year.

Sure, I'd love more than that but best to manage my own expectations in light of 2016 being a turbulent year; economy, interest-rate, election/politics, and unemployment wise.

 

I suspect "nice steady growth" in Brisbane as per Charles Tarbey is closer to the mark. What is a killing? Doubling your money? Always suspicious of Real Estate agents talking up the market.