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is 20 years the new 10 year cycle??

Discussion in 'General Property Chat' started by GLAM, 10th Jan, 2017.

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  1. Angel

    Angel Well-Known Member

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    I'll be happy if I get $100k growth for each of our houses. This going nowhere for six years wasn't in the brochure.

    My prediction is that Brisbane will finally BOOM straight after we sell up and move into a commune somewhere.
     
  2. MJS1034

    MJS1034 Well-Known Member

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    Where was this mate?
     
  3. aussieB

    aussieB Well-Known Member

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    I am with @MTR on this one. Just numbers.
    People tend to forget, previous cycles were with previous conditions.

    There are thousands of new job seekers released by universities into the market. Many get jobs and most of these young people's parents have been saving money for years so they can help their kids. All of this saved money and the banks finding eligibility for all new employees etc will need to be pumped into some market. There is so much migration happening now. The last border protection show I saw on TV caught an ex-cop from China migrating to Australia with about AUD $50k in person. I think, there are may be a lot of corrupt money flowing into Australia too. Italian mafia, Indian/Chinese tax dodgers etc.

    Just today, I read the wages are catching up : http://www.ntnews.com.au/business/a...e/news-story/7e3ff26796351e020c15145110d1ed25
    A job that used to pay $110k can now be paying upto $160k ! I personally don't think Sydney will come off its rails for at least another 2 - 3 years. The government is invested in it (so they can avoid paying the pensioners and space out all other welfare that is asset tested), the investors are invested in it and the immigrants are invested in it.
     
  4. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    This is so true. While people saying this Sydney boom was obvious, it wasn't for me. I actually put a property on Auction in 2011 after coming off a Sydney fall and stagnation 2005-2011... I wanted 540k for it while bidders stopped bidding at 520k. With hindsight I took it off the market and I still have this property and is now worth mid 800k
     
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  5. aussieB

    aussieB Well-Known Member

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    So if its hard to see in advance when its happening unless the boom is happening, how did you get your timing right ? Or was it just luck ?
     
  6. House

    House Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Disappointed I've missed all these booms and easier lending policies but one member pointed out that I have at least the next 10 years of accumulating which should put me in a very good position when the next boom comes along :)

    Whether that's 10 or 15 years it seems it will inevitably happen again and happy to wait. Just need to avoid another depression!
     
  7. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    LOL
     
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  8. Sonamic

    Sonamic Well-Known Member

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    Between Maroochydore and Caloundra mate.
     
  9. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    There is an underlying cycle . Sydney , then Melbourne then Brisbane / Adelaide / Tassie .

    I look at which places are underperforming , so in 2009 it was around six years since the last Sydney boom and everyone was talking about how bad Sydney was and why would you buy there .

    GFC comes , market crashes ( bargains for a few months though not enough to shift the average much ) so we went and bought .

    In the next 2-3 years the market improves marginally and we buy more IP's . Looking for PPOR in mid 2013 . Going to open houses most weekends and we saw a dramatic change in the market . Large queues at open houses . Properties selling in first week , some with multiple bids . When our perfect PPOR came up we moved quickly making an offer at the end of first open , after everyone else had left . Accepted before next open . Sydney now close to peak .

    Brisbanes last peak was in 2009 , now 8 years ago . Central areas moving well , outer areas starting to pick up . Outer Prices around the level they were 8 years ago .

    So , where do you buy . Some where that has come close to doubling in the last 3-4 years or somewhere that is around same price it was 9 years ago ?

    You need to pay attention to vacancies etc .

    Cliff
     
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  10. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    That's what people are saying about Perth now... terrible market, will never recover etc, etc. Why would you buy there? ;)
     
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  11. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    If they were saying that and you had 1 -2 % vacancy rates , you could make a case for that , but meth , oops , I mean Mandurah as an example has a vacancy rate of over 4 % ..

    Watch and wave from the side line . Perth will have is day in the sun ( around about 300 / year ) but Brisbane will move first IMHO

    Cliff
     
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  12. MJS1034

    MJS1034 Well-Known Member

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    Wow! Wouldn't that be nice again soon. Chances? 1%?
     
  13. Sonamic

    Sonamic Well-Known Member

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    Depends. If you can luck out and get an old 4575 home beachside of Nicklin Way for 500k (rare, but it still happens occasionally if you're onto it) and do a nice Renovation you'd be getting to a mill inside 10 years easily. My old next door neighbor has his on the market @ 890k. He's dreaming right now, but in a year or 2. . . .
     
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  14. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo midas touch Premium Member

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    Well said. But we have to wait 'til Sydney stops booming before we add that 13 or 14 onto the year. Maybe 2017 + 13? Maybe 2018? It's a slow-motion boom this time around.

    There are some areas that increase more often than others as well and it's important to keep them on the radar. For example, Harris Park was slowly increasing in value from almost the time I bought it in 2007. Then there was a fhb mini-boom in 2009 in the area and other similar areas. This lasted until 2010. Then things took off pretty quickly at the end of 2012.
    Considering the low buy-in, these places perform steadily for those who are unlikely to buy in more 'established' or more blue-chip areas.
    Timing still applies however. The idea is to get All the growth.
    Vacancy rates and recognising 'drivers'.
     
    Last edited: 11th Jan, 2017
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  15. MJS1034

    MJS1034 Well-Known Member

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    Tottally agree! My parents have a nice two story house on beachside oceanic in Warana. Aiming for $2mill inside 10 years, very achievable IMO.

    Do you know the beachside apartments in Buddina? They have an apartment in there. Bought it approx 6 years ago and hasn't done much in that time. Do you think that will go up in the coming years with more employees on decent incomes working at the hospital. It's a 2 Bed penthouse with rooftop and amazing views of the beach.
     
  16. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    I have bought in a place that was flat for a long time, vacancy at 4% or above, you could buy well and no rushing, less than 2 years later and opens are busy, days on market low and vacancy now at around 2%.

    If you have the cash to ride any vacancy, you could potentially buy in Perth and leave the place empty if you buy well, I do not know the market though, it did not look cheap where I looked.
     
  17. DiligentPM

    DiligentPM Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Low inflation/low wage growth context is definitely keeping a lid on strong CG.

    Our Brisbane and Qld IPs have definately not doubled in value over the past 7 years...colleagues with some Qld regional IPs experiencing neg equity over past three years...got to control holding costs and hang on for the long haul for decent CG (Qld)...property researchers such as Ryder and Matusik argue cycles are in the 10-14 year range now
     
  18. Sonamic

    Sonamic Well-Known Member

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    If it's the units in Lowanna I learnt to surf in their backyard as a kid.:D Penthouse with rooftop in there are smidgen over 600k. 2010 saw a price spike. I've seen investment properties bought then sell for the same money just last year. They should definitely see some growth this year. If it was a house in the same position on the dunes they'd see 2 mill by perhaps 2020. Great little pocket to be in. Looking to get a PPOR back in there before is gets too silly again!
     
  19. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    You mentioned property cycles and how do you know when to jump in, you wait for the rise, how do you know its a rising market? because the volumes changes, media coverage, shortage of stock, get leads from PC but make sure that its fact not fiction. For example been talking about a boom in Brissy for 3 years now but yet to boom. My guess is investors jumped in with the assumption it was going to boom.
    Melbourne was already booming, a couple of phone calls to re agents would have established the numbers and

    GFC 2008..guess what.......Melbourne was booming, how many investors cashed up?
    Amazing time to make money
     
    Last edited: 12th Jan, 2017
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  20. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Back to Perth, it boomed in 2013/14, do those promoting Perth buy during this timeframe? if they did you have My attention