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is 20 years the new 10 year cycle??

Discussion in 'General Property Chat' started by GLAM, 10th Jan, 2017.

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  1. GLAM

    GLAM Member

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    Hi guys,

    From what I can see and read from people who are far more educated and experienced in property than me the " buy and hold " strategy is not really as viable and fruitful as it perhaps once was.

    Yes Sydney and Melb are flying but one would presume that would slow down at some stage. The rest of the cities are not growing as quickly based on the stats that I have followed on this forum and elsewhere.

    So, as the headlines suggest do people on here believe that buy and hold growth is not really an option pursuing anymore and perhaps the new cycle for property to double might be 20 years ( or a minimum of 15 anyway ) instead of the traditional 10?

    This is presuming no other strategy like value adding is introduced into the mix. Purely a question regarding buy and hold.

    Cheers

    GLAM
     
  2. sharon

    sharon Well-Known Member

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    I don't know.
    But - my PPOR is on track to double in 15 years. It certainly hasn't doubled in the last 10 years.
     
  3. gecko235

    gecko235 Member

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    Depends when you start at the cycle and the cycle is on average which means it can vary.
     
  4. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    In this low inflation/low wage growth environment I think that's the case for both the majority of property and shares. The old days of 10% year on year returns are over for now. With the current cycle in Adelaide I'm only expecting CG of 4-5% this year and I expect similar returns for Brisbane and even negative growth for Perth. I've given up speculating on Melb/Syd as I thought it would've ended in 2015...
     
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  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    7, 10, 20 year cycles... just ignore these timeframes, we just don't know?, another property myth.

    All you need to know is that property is all about cycles, demand vs supply, no one can predict whether future property cycles will change there are so many variables in play. I wish I had $1 for every time someone mentioned future cycles are going to be different, or we will never see a boom like this again. I have seen 6 boom cycles and they are very similar.... if you jump in you make pots of money...LOL

    However you can work out when markets are rising, by looking at volume, supply, days on the market and number of offers on the table, and the product that is moving, this requires networking with people on the ground.

    The idea is to buy in strong/rising markets because this is the easiest way to create wealth in a shorter time frame.

    If you want to buy and hold forever then generally speaking people who follow this strategy believe if they hold long enough they will make money, and I guess they are right. I just like to improve my odds.
    MTR:)
     
    Last edited: 10th Jan, 2017
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  6. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    It still think it's a 10 year cycle.

    There were booms in the 50s 60s 70s 80s but the 90s missed out due to the "recession we had to have " by Paul "Get a job you bludgers" Keating.

    Then there was a boom in 2003 and then 2013.

    So I think every 10 years is a fair bet.
     
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  7. Sonamic

    Sonamic Well-Known Member

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    2003 was the real banger.
     
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  8. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    2003, 2013, 2023? Do you think 2023 is a bit early for another boom? Maybe 2027, 10 years from now?
     
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  9. HomePage

    HomePage Well-Known Member

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    It's too early to tell.
     
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  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Let me 2050, nice round numbers:p
     
  11. Sonamic

    Sonamic Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps. Like Lotto, you've got to be in it to win it!

    In my area in 2003 I watched most properties double in price in well under 2 years. Some did it in 6 months! It was crazy times. I was a FHB at the time and was lucky enough to get into a new H&L for under 190k. Sold it to a Sydney investor 14 months later for 130k profit. Same house took a further 10 years to get to 400k. Warming up again now, but getting to 800k by 2024? I highly doubt it. Happy to be wrong though, as I went on to buy/build several more to B&H in the same area within the last few years.
     
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  12. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    @Sonamic 2024 is when it starts warming up again. Peak 3 to 5 years after that.

    I am just stirring really. Of course we don't know what will happen in 2024.

    All I really want to know us this: if I want to ride the next Sydney property boom, do I need to be ready to buy before or after 2024 ;)

    And which suburbs will double in 2 years please. I really need to double my money! :D
     
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  13. Pamela Palmqvist

    Pamela Palmqvist Active Member

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    It does seem that way but I think we just have to do more research and keep up-skilling to be on top of market trends, property cycle etc
     
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  14. Sonamic

    Sonamic Well-Known Member

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    Get in line Sunshine. :p
     
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  15. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    As I see more cycles, I get more sophisticated.

    I transition from Buy& Hold to Buy& Pray
     
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  16. Gockie

    Gockie Be the change you want to see in the world Premium Member

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    I think the forum makes people impatient for growth?
     
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  17. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    I don't have that many 20 in me....so better off picking up a religious hobby :D
     
  18. Gockie

    Gockie Be the change you want to see in the world Premium Member

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    Rather than relying on a god (who may or may not exist), I think its better to try to value add using some of your talents* in some way!

    *your talents can include engaging other people
     
  19. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Haha. We can start measuring how much time we have left in terms of how many property cycles we have left. Lol
     
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  20. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    In Sydney the previous boom ended in 2003 and it's still going in 2017 , . 88 to around 2001 is also around the same time frame so I'd already be looking at 13-14 years on that basis as a minimum so if we add 13 years to 2013 we get up to around 2026 . But I wouldn't put the date in my calendar to buy right now .

    We held our first PPOR for 7 years and it went sideways , apart from the work we put into it . We've held our latest one for around three years and it's gone up around 75 % .

    Difference ? . First one was bought in 88 at the peak of a boom . Last one was bought just as sydney was taking off at the end of 2013 . My personal solution ?

    Timing . Timing Timing .

    The easiest money comes from getting your timing right . We have bought on several occasions just as a market is taking off , but until you see it happening it's hard to predict in advance when that BOOM is going to happen . We bought more properties in the years leading up to a boom . We bought four in Sydney in the years leading up to the current boom and our PPOR just as it was starting to take off . In the last 18 months we've bought in Brisbane and Launceston and I think that timing is equivalent to our four early buys in sydney . A boom will happen in those places , but exactly when I'm not sure . By buying when we did we were able to take our time , have a good choice and buy what we felt were good properties .

    Cliff
     
    Last edited: 11th Jan, 2017
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