VIC IP#3

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by apk, 22nd Mar, 2016.

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  1. Jake Milne

    Jake Milne Well-Known Member

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    Yep, can't claim interest on money not borrowed. Highly unlikely to claim back tax on your own money if the funds are not solely for the purpose of investment (initially your paying down your home's interest rate, and the offset funds can also finance consumer items and bills).

    Split is better. Structure is key.
     
  2. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    Jake, what's your view on period homes in Geelong?
     
  3. Jake Milne

    Jake Milne Well-Known Member

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    I'm somewhat Bearish on Geelong right now regardless of asset class. Despite last year being great for houses with 17.6% growth, Geelong was flat from 2011 until 2015. My concern now is that Geelong, being virtually a one horse economy, is reliant on car manufacturing and it's supporting businesses which will be dead by 2017.

    Whilst the manufacturing outlook in Victoria looks better than it did 5-10 years ago I'm not confident that Geelong's manufacturing sector will transition in time to save jobs. I'd expect poor results in both rental and growth markets from 2017 - 2020. I'd be waiting for this market to go through its correction and then potentially looking to purchase if and when the economy improves. Could be some good buying opportunities in the near future; and as Victoria's largest regional city a long term play here seems viable.
     
    Last edited: 23rd Mar, 2016
    samiam likes this.
  4. JacM

    JacM VIC Buyer's Agent - Melbourne, Geelong, Ballarat Business Member

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    The Geelong employment topic was discussed quite a bit here;

    VIC - Geelong
     
  5. Jake Milne

    Jake Milne Well-Known Member

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    What's your opinion on Geelong on the short, mid and long term Jacqui?
    Seems like your bullish by contrast.

    Edit: Just read your post in the other thread. Interesting opinion. I can see your reasoning for some of it and agree in part (long term looks good) but disagree in others.

    In response:
    Ford and other related companies provide over 10,000 manufacturing jobs (30% from Ford directly).

    When combined with supportive satellite industries such as Wholesale Trade 2,300+ jobs and Warehousing/ Transport 2,700+ jobs the total accounts for approximately...
    20% of Geelong's workforce. Many of whom are facing uncertainty in the next few years.
    I wouldn't call it a "very small percentage of jobs in the region."
    Whilst I agree with this for certain companies, the only major brand H.O's I can think of off the top of my head are retail (Cotton On and Target) both of which have been laying off staff over the last two years. Over 2015, retail has had challenges with a borderline pessimistic consumer sentiment index. Furthermore retail contributes the 2nd highest amount of jobs in Geelong at 11,000+ and that's not great because most of these jobs are low income which in turn doesn't help the property market grow. (edit: WorkSafe - see link below)

    The only saving graces, in my opinion are healthcare with 12,000+ jobs and potentially education. Healthcare looks healthy but is it enough to counteract a failing manufacturing industry, construction industry and all satellite industries?

    So, in my opinion although in fact Geelong isn't a one horse economy, it is likely to be significantly affected by the failure of this sector that it basically is. Good for the long term, bad for the short term. Interested in your opinion on these comments in relation to your post :)

    Negative Press:
    Category: | Geelong Advertiser
    Plan to save Holden factory axed

    Positive Press:

    Category: | Geelong Advertiser

    Sources:
    Geelong is all about opportunity | Enterprise Geelong
    Wikipedia
    Residex
    ABS
     
    Last edited: 23rd Mar, 2016
  6. apk

    apk Well-Known Member

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    Gross at 6% at the moment. 3 year old unit, bit of depreciation there.
    Sell off few and hold few, live on rental. Also depends on various other factors like my dividends from share, legislation related to pension at the time of retirement. My long term plan is not set in stone, always subject to change any time.:p
    Units - with good ROI and reasonable CG.
    House - reasonable ROI, CG and potential sub-division.
    Similar to long term plan.

    Thanks for well thought out reply.
     
  7. apk

    apk Well-Known Member

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    As you said Maidstone and Braybrook are heavily developed, lately I am thinking I have missed the boat. My current strategy is to make sure my cash flow is healthy by purchasing neutral or positively geared, happy to purchase in above areas when/if the price is right.

    Agree Melton Werribee surrounded by land. Sunshine West like someone mentioned here interesting people interesting place.
     
  8. Jake Milne

    Jake Milne Well-Known Member

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    6% that's great and with the depreciation in there too. Even if Geelong doesn't perform in growth for now (here's to hoping it does though) you'll have a healthy return. Hope they hit averages of more than 10% total return for you :)

    I get it now, just going for a balanced portfolio and adding to it where you can. Upon retirement you can keep the best yielding properties whilst aiming to minimise your debt. Thanks for clarifying.
     
  9. apk

    apk Well-Known Member

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  10. Coota9

    Coota9 Well-Known Member

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    I also believe that the Target H.O in Geelong will eventually be combined into an already established sister companies H.O in Metro Melbourne...
     
  11. Otie

    Otie Well-Known Member

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    I'm currently in a similar position- have up to 500k to spend on first IP and can't figure out where. I also now am wanting sub dev down the track say 5yrs plus. Sort of want to get in before a suburb takes off too much but also don't want to buy in a dud.
    What are the experienced members thoughts on Glenroy and Fawkner? Glenroy seems to be 50-100k cheaper than Fawkner. Other one I'm interested in hearing thoughts on is Broadmeadows/Dallas- really cheap big sites but most of the houses are ex commission and won't Reno well enough for a retain/ add townhouse at the back type dev which I'm wanting to do for my first IP.