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Investor lending cools significantly.

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Steven Ryan, 4th Nov, 2015.

  1. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

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  2. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    Council housing please - now

    ta
    rolf
     
  3. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    Last time I saw figures quoted , there was a state by state breakdown with q'land increasing .

    Is there a regular source of that info ?

    Anecdotally are you guys seeing a slow down in Melbourne ?

    Cliff
     
  4. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    It was on a downward trajectory anyway as the booms in Sydney and Melbourne came to a natural end. They're going to be patting themselves on the back when I honestly believe we would have ended up here anyway without APRA intervention. Maybe delayed a few months, but nothing to cause the sort of bubble they're all paranoid about.
     
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  5. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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  6. petewargent

    petewargent Well-Known Member

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    Cooling across the board, pretty much - QLD investor loans were $2bn in March, $1.6bn in August. September figures not due 'til next week.
     
  7. petewargent

    petewargent Well-Known Member

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  8. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    Hi Pete

    will be interesting to see what happens .

    At the moment I'm thinking we'll get a replay of what happened in 2003

    Sydney is going to stop the way in did in 2003 . looking at Melbourne historical figures , it went sideways for a couple of years and then moved up till the GFC , while Brisbane had a more significant move.

    I haven't seen any anecdotal evidence of Brisbane stopping at the moment , though it's early days and it will be interesting to see what the next set of investor loans show . In our current area of interest ( outer brisbane ) , I think there has been around a 10 % increase in comparable properties in the last six months

    Cliff
     
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  9. petewargent

    petewargent Well-Known Member

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    Hi Cliff, definitely one to watch.

    The rolling trend for QLD investor finance is still up & there's also a lag to take account of.

    FWIW I'm expecting that a material chunk of NSW-originated approvals will end up being Brisbane purchases in 2016 as more investors realise how far the Sydney market has gotten away from them - have seen this happen plenty of times this year.

    You'll do much better in outer Bris than some of those OTP developments nearer town...sheesh!

    Pete
     
  10. Natedog

    Natedog Well-Known Member

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    Yep, and the intervention "could" cause a swing too far in the direction they wanted it....impacting availability of rental property for average joe tenants out there in the coming 12 months or so as less investors provide the supply side of the equation.
     
  11. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    another thing that I've only just realized is that something of the monthly figures going around ( eg from REA.com) are actually an average for the preceding year rolling forward . I've been seeing anecdotal evidence of movement where we're buying which hasn't showed up in the " monthly " figures . Now I realize why . I've always felt that the best information we've got is from conversations with local REA's . There will always be a couple who exaggerate or tell you what they t , but if you talk to a few , there will be a consensus opinion about what is actually happening

    Cliff
     
  12. Debz

    Debz Member

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    Agree, comparable properties to mine in SE Qld have moved up more than 10-15% from 12 months ago when i purchased, definitely looking like a rising market however auction clearance rates don't show that at 43%. Melbourne and Sydney are definitely cooling at 66% and 63%.
     
  13. Esel

    Esel Well-Known Member

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    This sounds interesting but confusing. Could you explain a bit more please?
     
  14. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Qld and parts of Melb only places with a bit more upside I think - although I've been a seller in Melb lately to be fair. Much more interesting opportunities in other things/countries right now I think.
     
  15. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    Rea.com.au has monthly figures for sales in any particular suburb . BUT they aren't the average for that month . They are the average for sales over a 12 month period ending at the end of that month.

    Eg the prices reported as average for sept 2015 aren't the average of prices sold in sept , but represent the average for a 12 month period ending at the end of September . If there are 10 sales of 200k / month in averageville for 11 months and then the price jumps up to 10 sales of 250 in the last month , the average price reported in the last month isn't 250 , but is ( 200 *10* 11 + 250*10 ) / 120 = 204,167 .

    So statistically the increase in the last month is diluted by the preceding 11 months so it is a trailing indicator of price movement .

    In share trading terms it's a 12 month moving average .

    Cliff
     
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  16. Esel

    Esel Well-Known Member

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    Wow, thats really interesting. Thanks for pointing it out. Is there a site that has the actual median sales for a month?
     
  17. aussieshorter

    aussieshorter Well-Known Member

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    In any context that's a 12 month moving (or rolling) average ;)