Investor lending cools significantly.

Source: http://www.brokernews.com.au/news/b...l-below-apra-limit-figures-reveal-207705.aspx

APRA will be pleased.

 

Last time I saw figures quoted , there was a state by state breakdown with q'land increasing .

Is there a regular source of that info ?

Anecdotally are you guys seeing a slow down in Melbourne ?

Cliff

 

It was on a downward trajectory anyway as the booms in Sydney and Melbourne came to a natural end. They're going to be patting themselves on the back when I honestly believe we would have ended up here anyway without APRA intervention. Maybe delayed a few months, but nothing to cause the sort of bubble they're all paranoid about.

 

https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/ResearchNews/CommSecStateofStates_Oct15_NSW.pdf


https://www.commsec.com.au/stateofstates?icid=124600:commsec:m:public:Public_Home:B4:text:Media:SOS

 

Cooling across the board, pretty much - QLD investor loans were $2bn in March, $1.6bn in August. September figures not due 'til next week.

 

will update next week - but last month's data showed investor loans have been curbed sharply across all states & territories

Pete Wargent blog: Around the states: What's happening with property investor loans?

 

Hi Pete

will be interesting to see what happens .

At the moment I'm thinking we'll get a replay of what happened in 2003

Sydney is going to stop the way in did in 2003 . looking at Melbourne historical figures , it went sideways for a couple of years and then moved up till the GFC , while Brisbane had a more significant move.

I haven't seen any anecdotal evidence of Brisbane stopping at the moment , though it's early days and it will be interesting to see what the next set of investor loans show . In our current area of interest ( outer brisbane ) , I think there has been around a 10 % increase in comparable properties in the last six months

Cliff

 

Hi Cliff, definitely one to watch.

The rolling trend for QLD investor finance is still up & there's also a lag to take account of.

FWIW I'm expecting that a material chunk of NSW-originated approvals will end up being Brisbane purchases in 2016 as more investors realise how far the Sydney market has gotten away from them - have seen this happen plenty of times this year.

You'll do much better in outer Bris than some of those OTP developments nearer town...sheesh!

Pete

 

Yep, and the intervention "could" cause a swing too far in the direction they wanted it....impacting availability of rental property for average joe tenants out there in the coming 12 months or so as less investors provide the supply side of the equation.

 

another thing that I've only just realized is that something of the monthly figures going around ( eg from REA.com) are actually an average for the preceding year rolling forward . I've been seeing anecdotal evidence of movement where we're buying which hasn't showed up in the " monthly " figures . Now I realize why . I've always felt that the best information we've got is from conversations with local REA's . There will always be a couple who exaggerate or tell you what they t , but if you talk to a few , there will be a consensus opinion about what is actually happening

Cliff

 

Agree, comparable properties to mine in SE Qld have moved up more than 10-15% from 12 months ago when i purchased, definitely looking like a rising market however auction clearance rates don't show that at 43%. Melbourne and Sydney are definitely cooling at 66% and 63%.

 

This sounds interesting but confusing. Could you explain a bit more please?

 

Qld and parts of Melb only places with a bit more upside I think - although I've been a seller in Melb lately to be fair. Much more interesting opportunities in other things/countries right now I think.

 

Rea.com.au has monthly figures for sales in any particular suburb . BUT they aren't the average for that month . They are the average for sales over a 12 month period ending at the end of that month.

Eg the prices reported as average for sept 2015 aren't the average of prices sold in sept , but represent the average for a 12 month period ending at the end of September . If there are 10 sales of 200k / month in averageville for 11 months and then the price jumps up to 10 sales of 250 in the last month , the average price reported in the last month isn't 250 , but is ( 200 *10* 11 + 250*10 ) / 120 = 204,167 .

So statistically the increase in the last month is diluted by the preceding 11 months so it is a trailing indicator of price movement .

In share trading terms it's a 12 month moving average .

Cliff

 

Wow, thats really interesting. Thanks for pointing it out. Is there a site that has the actual median sales for a month?

 

In any context that's a 12 month moving (or rolling) average