Crypto Investing in Bitcoin - 4 Year Journey Series

Discussion in 'Other Asset Classes' started by Michael.Knight, 15th Oct, 2019.

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  1. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    With bitcoin now at 40k, a gain of 300% since October, we could be seeing price action driven by institutional money reflecting 2013 rather than 2017...

    Here is Bob Loukas update for January 2021 in the 4 year cycle.

     
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  2. LIDM

    LIDM Well-Known Member

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    Great video series - really helps with mindset. Thanks for posting.
     
  3. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    Bob's latest video where we are very close to the mania phase and finale to the bull cycle.

    In a nutshell :

    - volatility will increase. 30-50% drops will be more frequent and scary. A 40% drop at 160k is a 60k+ decline!

    - if you think you will be worried and shaken out, better to take some profit.

    - Looking forward, Bob's biggest regret will be selling most of his stack too early, then seeing bitcoin reach a 200k+ price.

    - His priority is to have most of his stack intact, and if btc delivers on its potential price anticipation, to cashout near the cycle top.

     
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  4. Onyx_OCAU

    Onyx_OCAU Well-Known Member

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    I'm too impatient to sit through nearly an hour of dry talking for each video posted above; but it doesn't seem like the videos addresses the fact that these 4 year cycles happen because of the halving of mining rewards. It is by design from its creation that a bitcoin will mined every 10 minutes; and after every 210,000 blocks mined the rewards for mining is halved. This has predictably created a price chart that can be used as reference, as the halving has happened twice before, and we're at the third halving now - the latest being May 2020.

    The model predicts the bull run will be from 1 to 1.5 years from the point of halving. So peak price for BTC would be May to Nov this year. 2021 onwards bitcoin price will trend downwards losing upto 75% of its peak value if previous halvings are an indication; until mid 2023 it will be at the lowest price point almost exactly a year before the next halving takes place in 2024. And 2025 will again be a year of significant rise in bitcoin price as it is this current year.
     
  5. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    Worth watching as we look at an exciting end to the bull phase! How do we handle a $200,000 Bitcoin?

     
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  6. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    Updating the bitcoin monthly chart here, could be very interesting.

    The 1st cycle, 2010-2013, there were two peaks in the rsi indicator above 90 (overbought).

    The 2nd cycle, 2015-2017, another two peaks in the rsi indicator.

    This 3rd cycle, 2019- , we've had the first rsi peak in March 2021 and it's starting to look like a second rsi peak may be on the cards in the October-April timeframe!

    ScreenHunter 110.jpg
     
  7. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    Bob's latest video where he discusses bitcoin being at a crossroads and whether we'll see the bull market resume with a blowoff top in early 2022... The final hurdle!

     
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  8. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    Bitcoin is now at all time highs! We're in the final stages of the bull run. Keep the excitement in check as hopefully we see a run to $300,000+ aud

    The latest update from Bob Loukas here :

     
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  9. Baker

    Baker Well-Known Member

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    (This has surely been mentioned elsewhere, but I'm too tired to trawl old thread):

    What is the 'recommended' crypto exchange for the very average Aussie punter?
     
  10. samiam

    samiam Well-Known Member

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    Coin spot (higher fees) and Btc markets (less coins)
    May take a little while to verify
    Enjoy the ride!
     
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  11. LROB

    LROB Well-Known Member

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  12. abbyfresh

    abbyfresh Well-Known Member

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    That paving in the basement car park is better than the car parked in it.
     
  13. Shogun

    Shogun Well-Known Member

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  14. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    Fear is in the air as bitcoin has recently crashed upto 38% from it's peak in November. In addition, it has not lived upto the expectations of Plan B's model of a $135k usd price for December.

    Bob's latest video where he outlines an "exit" plan to the upside if the bull market is still on... and to the downside if we're in the beginning stages of a bear market...

     

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