Interesting Property Charts Thread

Rental CPI, Q3 2016

-Sydney rents accelerated

-Perth rents also accelerated, but in a downwards trajectory

 

How long does it take Sydney to get back to 5-6% yields again?

We increase $10-20 between renewal now...when rates go up more we increase $20-50.. Property price comes down a little... Boom we' re back 5% yield.
The Sydney employment and population growth seem to support the rent increase..

 

Even if it is the same tenant extending lease by another year or month to month? Perhaps I am the "nice landlord" but I haven't increased rents in 3 years. Feeling rather foolish actually.

 

it doesn't matter on the tenancy contract... it's the demand and market driven, rather than what we want... In Brisbane we couldn't increase.. not sure what the rental market in Melbourne is though.

 

Are there charts to show how commercial properties are doing? I would assume it would be similar to resi charts.

 

Yes, & performance is not similar to resi.

 

@petewargent Do you have any charts to show how commercial property (perhaps different types) yield are doing in different states? You mentioned the performance is different to resi, is this in terms of CG?

 

I don't understand why so many people on the forum think Sydney is at the peak. IMO, I will give Sydney at least another 3 years to go. If I had the monies, I would still invest short term in Sydney.

With about a 150 odd thousand immigrant intake every year, most immigrants (just the 'highly skilled' ones) will choose either between Melbourne and Sydney. FWIK Perth and Darwin were probably booming because of natural resources. That's all gone now. As a metaphor, just for the IT immigrant population choosing between Sydney and Mel is like choosing between San Francisco and NY. The cost of living is unbelievable. People are happy to live in shoeboxes and spend a good part of their life in public transport. But businesses somehow flourish and the general population lives in an illusion of over all prosperity.

Australian ICT work places are known for their stupidity of asking for local experience (as if a computer will magically work differently because it was powered on in Australia !). So most migrants are coming with funds prepared to fund them for a year or so. So, if a property is close to public transport and ticks all the boxes for renters, then that property is bound to be CF+.

 

The majority of the population don't have the income to service a $1 million+ mortgage. I used to live in Sydney and took a pay cut to come to Adelaide because even entry level houses in Sydney in suburbs like Minto and Mac Fields are 500k+...yields are at record lows. The only thing sustaining the Sydney market is record low interest rates imo.

 

great charts! puts things in perspective

 

They are still there.

 

Only have data to November from Residex so far. Here's a few updated charts based on that:

 

A lot of these charts dont make sense.

 

Don't be mean! But it does show a unit bought in Oct 2010 in Adelaide is possibly worth the same amount now. On the other hand, Adelaide houses have increased in value. Not by a huge amount (10%), but there has been growth. Sydney was similar 2004-2009, little growth then we had a huge boom. I saw it in lower end properties. The end of the first home buyers scheme on existing properties brought forward intended purchases, pushing up the prices of lower end homes and the units. From 2012 I suggest that overseas investment and migration into Sydney (as it's seen as a safe and prosperous haven) made Sydney have boom conditions. Now there's been so much building of apartments it has to slow or stop the growth in Sydney apartment prices.

 

@Gockie, I am seeing unit prices around the same price level as 2010 as you point out. It's a long time for investors to go without capital growth. I suspect the large number of new apartments hitting Adelaide market is suppressing the price of old stock (although the construction boom is nowhere near the scale of eastern states).

You can get a reasonable 2 bedroom unit only a few kms out of the city for around $200-250k.

Feel free to elaborate on which charts you don't understand if any of those I posted

 

Geez... Or you could buy half a <40sqm studio in Sydney for the same money.

 

Thanks, BB. I suppose the 1.1m for Sydney house prices are a bit obscure as it would be helpful if they pointed out some median suburbs in Sydney to go with the median price. This would at least give a bit clearer view as to where the median actually is.

TV

 

Jobs jobs jobs

From @petewargent

Jobs growth was really crap everywhere except VIC in 2016. In fact, VIC added about 129pc of net new employed persons

 

And this is why charts often don't make sense, there is no indication of population growth or full time vs. part time employment growth or lack thereof.

They are often a representation of one dimensional dry monetary and fiscal data.

 

True, you need to then look at the full time/part time/hours worked/underemployment/underutilisation/wages growth etc. figures for that.

It's just at most people don't bother.

Overall, across most metrics Melbourne has been by some margin the strongest economy, and as a result is now drawing in new population from all over the place, including from overseas.

Wouldn't surprise me if Greater Melbourne grows by close to 100k persons in 2017. Huge.