Interest Rate Cut February??

I agree.
I thibk the wait and see approach.

Thats what i would do

 

Told you that two weeks ago .

 

Jobs growth minimal only part time, retail struggling a lot even with 0% it won’t grow much
But feb rate cut slowed not 100% now but 70% probably wait and see or proactive cut from RBA

 

I'd be surprised if there is a cut in Feb - if I had to take a position it'd be hold!

 

Dont have the full data set, but it looks like they can afford to be patient with a lot of 'green shoots' coming out recently. The employment figures look decent and trending ok (but not sure what the lead data is suggesting). Opposite of last year IMO, a bit too slow to pull the trigger this time last year when the economy needed it. I think Sydney & Melbourne may end up posting double digit growth within 6 months this year IF they cut again. Dont think that pace of price acceleration is desirable.

Westpac dropped their fixed rates earlier this week by 0.20% and Evans is regularly correct on his rate predictions (I suspect he may push it out if he hasn't already, but still has it factored in as near certainty)

 

Have a look at the latest CBA flash PMI- sinks. Wouldn't be surprised with RBA cut next month. IMO rate to 0.25% and then QE will start by end of this year unless indicators show green.

CBA Flash PMI sinks - MacroBusiness

 

Interesting times, never seen property markets in Syd and Melb make such a quick comeback

but then again I dont think I have seen interest rates have been this low

 

Huuuuuge drop in rate cut expectations in Feb....



This was 50-50 for a Feb rate cut a few days ago.

Must have been some data released with some positive news around jobs or economy?

 

You Sir are fast becoming our resident Crystal ball reader

Source: ASX climbs; rate cut expectations pushed out

Traders pull forward full interest rate cut pricing to July
Traders pull forward full interest rate cut pricing to July

Rates traders have now priced in a full rate cut in July after pushing it out to August following yesterday's better than expected jobs data.

The odds of a February rate cut have tumbled to 17 per cent - after being at 56 per cent on Thursday morning - after the addition of 28,900 jobs in December pushed the unemployment rate to a nine month low of 5.1 per cent.


Expectations of a rate cut in February fell after following the jobs data released this week. Bloomberg

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans, who had forecast a cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia's February 4 meeting, pushed out his call for a 0.25 per cent rate cut to April.

He expects another cut to 0.25 per cent in August.

 

That makes sense.

What they're unlikely to say but likely thinking (they're employed to be right, while I'm just a nobody who has random opinions):

• Currently in a watch and wait mode for more data given the positive data readings that have come out of late. I.e. the RBA have a little bit of breathing room to see what's going on now and don't necessarily need to act now, hence a change in timing (RBA likely to be cautious in cutting from here and do it if needed rather than very pro-actively).
• If the trajectory of unemployment continues to tread downwards and upwards of 25-30k jobs created per month, than say goodbye to any further rate cuts this year. Everyones forecasts will adjust soon enough. They'd have their own unemployment figures baked into their models that forecast upward trends in unemployment, not downwards like we've seen in recent months.

 

@Redom interested to see the positive jobs data on Qld and Brisbane. Do you have a specific link?

 

Source data is the release:
6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Dec 2019

Bottom of page

 

No cut - Omni forecast

 

...unless the Wednesday CPI read comes in lower than expected. But I agree they hold in Feb.

 

Ok. ... i think it will be hold

Looking for growth, look at school zones

we have already seen how well this worked in 2013

Look what school zones do to the value of property