QLD Inner Brisbane Market 'Overcooked'

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Sackie, 29th Mar, 2016.

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  1. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    Would you buy right now in Perth? Or wait until it falls further?
    Some people prefer to buy with the momentum.
     
  2. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    The Brisbane Bears were an unloved bunch of rejects replaced over time by triple Premiership winning Lions.:cool::p
     
  3. headsonbeds

    headsonbeds Well-Known Member

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    Jacob I think New Farm has maybe 10 new units being built so I don't think oversupply is an issue there

    Fortitude valley is a little different as it almost merges with inner city and there's some big blocks going up around there.

    I think the Newstead stuff is interesting though as if I where a renter it would be an area I'd want to live in. Breweries, food, exercise, close to town, woohoo.

    Personally I don't even look at the new unit market so take my opinion with a grain of salt.

    Interesting that you saying build costs are up 30%, what's driving that?
     
  4. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    Why don't you enlighten everyone here, what is in the pipeline?

    I have been in IT recruitment for the past 10 years, have hired across Australia and NZ and I can tell you that the employment market in Brisbane is bad enough for people from there calling to see if they can move to Melbourne and Sydney.

    We used to supply to QLD government, for a period of 2 years they didnt have a single job order going out (no budget) and in the end when it was time for contract renewal they asked us (the supplier of services) to donate money towards upgrading their procurement system. We laughed and wished them luck.

    You are just using a bunch of buzz words that you have heard from other people on this forum like education and retail and think that they will magically fix the problem. What in education or retail is going to happen to suddenly create enough jobs for all these people that are supposedly going to come and live in Brisbane and create demand for housing?

    Truth is that if mining does not pick up, Brisbane will be lucky to experience what Perth went through. If mining does pick up, its an entirely different story altogether as there will be plenty of demand.
     
  5. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    I dont think Perth will fall that much more given where the interest rates are.

    I would buy right now, you can take advantage of the current consumer confidence in that market and negotiate well. You have plenty of options so the price you pay is going to be future proof as well. But if the market does pick up (and it will eventually when the price of iron ore picks up) you will be laughing.

    Conversely in Brisbane right now everyone wants top dollar thinking they are sitting on gold. Much harder to negotiate and you are investing in a highly risky market and if the prices fall you will have bought an asset that is going to drop.
     
  6. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    Has Brisbane ever been a place to be for IT? That's the reason I left. If it's never been a hub for IT I don't see why maintaining the status quo (especially since it's only one industry out of many) could make things worse. It's like saying during the boom there were no mining jobs in Sydney.
     
  7. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Check out brisbanedevelopment.com to see a partial list of the pipeline.
    Cant see much mining related stuff- but can see retail etc. Dont know how you think this is buzzwords...
     
  8. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    Just because they're being more responsible with the public's money and not hiring overpriced contractors, doesn't mean there aren't regular jobs in government starting to become more available again.
     
  9. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    Thats not entirely true.

    Back when the mining was doing well, Brisbane was huge, especially miners. If you had a pulse and some basic ERP skills you were usually hired by Rio or BHP or one of the smaller players. They were begging to get people over and paid really well for them. It was considered a skill short market.

    Brisbane has not been a "hub" per say but IT is a part of almost all businesses these days. So whether you are in construction or retail or whatever else, chances are you will need an IT department. Even a cafe shop will be having some form of system as POS that would have been installed by a local consulting / system software company.

    IT and finance are the two main components of majority of businesses these days and when IT and finance grow it is a sign of other parts of the business expanding.
     
  10. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    Almost all states and territories have something similar to this, often to get votes for whatever the ruling party at the time. Most of it is never executed and the part that is executed is usually only enough to keep the locals employed rather than creating more jobs than there are people and even that takes years.

    Have you seen the federal government adverts on TV on how they are using buzzwords to "create jobs of future" where a kid says he wants to be a robot in future? Why do you think that advert is running? Election is coming and they need votes, otherwise we are a long, long way away to even remotely claim that we want to create jobs of future :)

    You will have to understand, even in the scenario where a place is trying to transform it's economy from raw products to manufacturing or service based economy, it will take decades for that transformation to happen and thats if everything is done properly.
     
  11. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    Sure, maybe you have more information than I do.
     
  12. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    It's not great - or I would be back there already - but friends telling me it's way different now to the doom and gloom where people felt like dead men walking a few years ago ago.
     
  13. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    There are already cranes in yhe sky and construction has commenced in brisbane. Thats some evidence that a lot of the pipe is realising.
     
  14. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think anyone needs to provide reasons for optimism, they have been discussed ad nauseam.
    The period after the 2011 floods and Campbell Newman's massive public sector job cuts was the peak of maximum pessimism.
    I don't think it reflects what's actually happening now.
    The unemployment statistics for Brisbane show areas ranging from 3.3% to just under 6%:
    LMIP | Labour Market Information Portal

    Melbourne: Very similar to Brisbane in all areas with inner city Brisbane slightly lower.
    LMIP | Labour Market Information Portal

    Perth: Higher
    LMIP | Labour Market Information Portal

    Sydney: Lowest except the Southwest
    LMIP | Labour Market Information Portal
     
  15. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    Thats great but remember government's data is usually inaccurate and lags behind by months and at times years.

    For example one way government looks at calculating employment figures is the number of seek adverts that go up in a given week or month or year.

    Also their figure doesn't take into account the number of full time / part time / casual / temp jobs. Its one size fits all kind of approach. The reason behind this is government will always attempt to fudge the numbers and publish a general number to try and show they have done well.

    Australia in general has always been dependent on raw products and even it's manufacturing statistics are false as most of our manufacturing is the initial processing of our raw products and not manufacturing anything in a sense of importing material and manufacturing it and then selling it to other countries.

    Ultimately the 20 to 25 % of our service based economy is mostly divided between Melbourne and Sydney (finance and insurance) and hence these two are a bit more diversified and can weather the storm better. Apart from that Melbourne and Sydney have the main universities that attract foreign students and also benefit from better weather which again is good for tourism.

    What you also have to take into account is that, in order to create more demand for housing is you need to have an economy that is not just maintaining itself but rather is buoyant enough to actually create many more jobs and hence bring in more people. I don't think Brisbane is anywhere near that.
     
  16. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    You lost me with the better weather part...

    In 2003 the unemployment rate was similar to what it is now.
    No doubt governments fudge statistics where they can but the source is the same for each capital. Are you suggesting that somehow the Brisbane LGA figures are wrong? Those figures are current. Recent commentary suggests unemployment is tightening further.

    No disagreement about the size of the financial services sector with none of the biggest companies having a HQ there, Suncorp would be the nearest. I would suggest that this is more than compensated by the substantial price differential.
    Despite most ASX 100 companies having their head offices in Sydney and Melbourne the median wage is only about 10-15% lower.
    The average person with a mortgage there has considerably less disposable income

    Are you suggesting the price differential between Sydney and Brisbane will stay as it currently is? That's not how things have played out over the last 45 years at least.
    Interstate migration will determine the out come.
     
  17. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah thats right. and interstate migration is going to be bolstered in bn as more non mining developments get through . Wages in syd are only 10-15% higher than brisbane yet RE prices are much lower than that.
    Here is is list if top bn based companies.
    No one doubts sydney can pi$$ all over brisbane anyday...but the buy in price differential is adjusted accorfingly. Also, the salary growth % between sydney amd bn is immaterial.
    BRISBANE BUSINESS NEWS UNCOVERS THE TOP 50 LISTED COMPANIES 2015: 1-10
     
  18. Tyler Durden

    Tyler Durden Well-Known Member

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    A few links from the state treasury:

    State final demand:

    http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products...ls/national-accounts-state-details-201512.pdf

    Pop growth Sept Quarter 15

    http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/pop-growth-qld/pop-growth-qld-201509.pdf

    Employment by Industry

    http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/employment-by-industry/employment-by-industry-201603.pdf

    Employment by Profession

    http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products...ccupation/employment-by-occupation-201603.pdf

    For those willing to do their own research I also suggest Corelogics monthly indices and SQM's "by region" quarter on quarter asking prices. I don't personally believe that every cycle has to end in a spectacular boom.

    I've gained some exceptional equity since early 2012 in the inner north and bayside Moreton but I don't see the markets I'm in putting on much more this cycle. Flailing LNG prices brought CSG investment to a screaming halt and more recently APRA have killed the fun, whether we want to accept it or not the game has changed. Longterm QLD will definitely diversify and build a robust economy but it's going to take a lot longer than some are suggesting. Tourism, Education, Agriculture and interstate migration would have to have an unprecedented boom to get us back to pre GFC fundamentals in the short-term.

    It'll happen, just not in the next couple of years.

    Happy to be wrong!
     
    Last edited: 3rd Apr, 2016
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  19. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    No. I am suggesting Brisbane, NSW and all the other figures on that link are unreliable for the reasons I have mentioned above.

    I am not sure how we got on the "price differential" ride but I think the mention of it is a self defeating prophecy.

    From your post you do admit that wages in Melbourne and Sydney are higher but you think that cost of living (property included) is lower. By your own logic (and I am not agreeing or disagreeing with it), don't you think that for Brisbane housing to go up, that affordability gap is eventually redundant unless somehow the wages also go up?
     
  20. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    You are the living example of a person who has moved out of Brisbane for employment reasons and yet you have joined others to argue against the very point that has made you move?
     
  21. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    I think the problem is you're putting forward all these reasons why Brisbane isn't Sydney. No one is saying Brisbane is on a trajectory to become like Sydney. It doesn't need to be on that trajectory to be undervalued.