Crypto I'm conducting some research on Bitcoin

You made what you felt was the right decision at the time, with the information you had at that time. Try not to be too hard on yourself.

Re-evaluate all the markets you're interested in and trust your gut instinct to guide you through your next moves.

I know someone who sold 200 BTC at $2 each, if you dwell on this too long it will consume you. Take care

 

Yeah it's all a bit tongue in cheek and if I reflect on the purpose of what I was doing, it was basically an experiment to put a real life example around Time in > Timing.

I actually feel better equiped to be making my financial decisions now having run these two experiements, Short term losses no longer bother me where as I probably would have panic sold at the first sign of loss in my younger years.

 

I made about that much owning btc for a few hours.
Is that moorer proof of the opposite?

 

What was your outlay / Risk?

My experiment was like 250 bucks a month after fees it was a total investment of $2,896.65. If I had left it in until today it would be worth $54,745.69 That is an increase of 1,789.97% What was the percentage increase when you timed it?

 

Time in market = risk.
The margin outlay was a few Ks in total over a few trades.
With 1:500 margin you can trade 1.4m btc with 2.8k and with 500 times more risk.

All I'm trying to say is that "time", "time in" and "risk" is a liitle more complex with many factors. Including that you have no idea what it will be worth next week or month.
Thus risk and volatility should be taken into account. And there is plenty.

 

But what if you had bought high and sold low. In that case timing the market is better than time in the market.

Haha yes why did you sell? You only had $2,900 "invested". It should've been put in the bottom drawer and check in 10 years time. I realise that's easy to say after the gains we've seen but it should also be the same strategy even it you had shown a loss. Worst case is you lose $2,900. Different story if you had $100,000 and sold at $145,000 (the same 45% you gained buying at $2900 and selling for $4200).

 

The experiement itself was a very basic put this in, see what happens. I did it with zero research (if anything the most reasearch I did was what app to use to buy some crypto). I didn't have an external wallet, I didn't watch the market before or after each purchase, I litteraly said "Well it's the 15th, time to throw another 250 at the experiment". The decision to put some funds towards Litecoin was simply because I heard it was created by some ex google devs...... and they have to know what they are doing right??? it's laughable now but it was what it was .

There are always many other factors to investment decisions, this one was just a bit of almost risk free fun .

I do still invest small amounts month on month now and feel like I learned a lot of principals from these two experiments, I reasearch something now before I buy and try to learn about what it is that I am actually owning a part of. Both the experiements were blindly throwing the money at something because it's easy, not because it's smart.

Yeah it was all just a bit of fun and I do enjoy revisiting it every so often. I made a gain that I was happy with at the time. It was supposed to be a 12 month experiment but at the end of the 12 months the market had gone down month on month and I was showing a loss of 54.04% so I decided to leave it in there and see what happened, as it was such a small amount I really didn't care if it dwindled to nothing. What was interesting was after that 12th month, it all turned around and the rate of it regaining above initial investment was quite something to record. From an analytic point of view I really enjoyed the experiment (and the follow up thread where I did the same thing with US stocks).

 

Agree with that, you have to "do it" and feel the euphoria or pain that goes with it, then learn how to deal with.
Some never learn, others are already learned.
Looking at -25% or +50% triggers a thought processes that only happen when you experience it. You don't know what it's like until you do.

 

Good on you for running this experiment mate, valuable lessons learned at a cheap cost when you think about how universal they are to the whole investment space.
Don't kick yourself for selling, like chylld has said, it could bother you if you start overthinking this.

 

Would you do another experiment this time?

 

I would conduct another experiment if there was an asset class that was appealing to me that I wasn't already in. The Experiment was about documenting and learning so I can't really do a repeat on the same asset class.

Note: I am currently quite involved in Crypto investing on an ongoing basis as it interests me quite a lot. Stocks I have backed away from as I simply wasn't getting the excitement I get researching the stocks that I do with the Crypto technologies but I did play around in that space for 18 months when Covid first hit (made an okay return on Webjet too ).

 

That makes sense.
Thank you.