If you have a mortgage, this is a 60 Minutes you must watch.

Just wondering, If not back to old days buying-power and if tighter credit is here to stay, what would be the green shoot for syd/melb in next 2/3 years (or even before) as some are suggesting/Hoping?

 

Media Watch ran a segment on the 60 minutes report. The transcript is hilarious.

But the vast majority of experts believe the severity of the crash they’re predicting – on which the program based its entire story – is bunkum.

What a shame 60 Minutes couldn’t find room for any of them.​

Ep 33 - 60 Minutes property

 

730 Report

 

The fhb apartment couple looked worried

 

there was doom and gloom in 2010 but there was also hope and boom forecasts at that time too.

But the way the MSM is going full doom and gloom and putting every ounce of their reputation on the line about this current prediction though.

 

Here’s a boom article: Australia's impending property boom: How the average cost of a home will surge to $6.3MILLION in just 25 years - and it's not Sydney that will be hit the hardest

Median house price to hit 6.3million in Sydney 2.3million in Perth by 2043. But wages will reverse to 2005 levels.

 

What about five years then? What if the economy rolls over?

Hmm where will future growth come from if credit stay around where they are? It’s not like we will magically see amazing wage growth ?

What happens to buyers who bought recently then?

 

CoreLogic’s Pain and Gain report

 

That the sort of talk usually happen just before a major crash
they just take some average number and extrapolate 20-30 years into the future then
use some historic data to back up the claim to make it seem credible

good for presentation and graphs but it just fanciful stuff, house price usually don't strait too far from people ability to earn with period of boom/cheap debt and hight leverage that drag the ratio out a bit but a correction always comes and reset the base.

doesn't matter how you spin and played with the number the fundamental law of money doesn't change just like Newton law of motions

 

What did I say about weed stocks? Canopy Corp just doubled in price as Canada announced weed legalisation. They were trading at $33 at the start of the year they shot up to $73 recently now sitting at $60.

 

To circle back to this for the 3rd time - 49% in Melbourne today with only 700 of 1100 reported.

Final number will probably hit 30’s for the first time.

Are you surprised @DrunkSailor ?

 

I went to an auction today for a decent 2 bedder in the inner suburbs. On a nice street too and in the affordable range but no one showed up. Agent blamed it on the weather.

I’m surprised people are still opting for auctions especially using peak price quoting ranges.

 

I am active in the market and it’s shifting to EOI.

Also. Mate bought one just today, without being specific it passed in so he walked up and put 100k under the bottom of the price guide and they took it.

 

Auction is a money minter for REAs, irrespective of the outcome sellers has to foot a decent chunk of bill for all the dog and pony show that goes with auctions, on the other hand sellers opting for auctions may still be in denial to the unfolding reality.

 

Don't watch 60mins, don't care what it says.

But speaking of stricter mortgage lending, it appears this has presented an unintended (?) side effect on people's ability to move (e.g upsize, downsize, changing suburbs etc).

For example, as a seller in this buyer's market, you generally have to offer a deep discount to get it sold quickly, so you end up with less funds available for buying a new home. As a buyer, although prices are much lower now, it's even harder to get a loan (lower LVR, stricter check on incomes/expenses etc).

Anecdotally an acquaintance who plans to move spoke to a few banks recently, and was advised with his current income (and other circumstances) even after selling his current home and an investment property, he still can't get a loan to buy a new property (of similar price to his current home) in another suburb where he'd like to move. To get a loan, he has to either raise additional funds, get a much higher paying job or wait until the prices in that suburb drop another 10-15%.

He's quite upset by this as the new suburb has already seen a much deeper decline in price and he's been wanting to move there for quite some time, yet the opportunity to move is still out of reach.

 

If Shane Oliver is right, 600k households hit negative equity - MacroBusiness


"AMP’s, Shane Oliver published a piece in which he revised up his expectations of the housing price correction from peak to trough to 20% in Sydney and Melbourne, and 10% nationally, a downgrade from their previous expectation for a 5% national average fall."

"We have taken his projections and run them across our Core Market Model. If his forecast were to eventuate, we think around 17% of borrowing households would fall into negative equity "