If things go south wont it be "safe as houses"

Hi. Still a newbie but been reading alot lately trying to work out what the new take might be post banking RC, tightening of lending standards etc. Something I am picking up is a trend in retail - disruption to how we have previously sold things, seems to be causing small biz failures and alot of overpriced small biz selling. Perhaps I am seeing things?

My thoughts are - where do you park your money if you see something brewing? Wont many people keep it or put it into property? Safe as houses type of thing? Could interest rates actually drop more? Could this just be a temporary stall before it takes off again and those with funds will start buying again?

Just so sceptical about the "crash" thing. I dont think its going to happen, its just the scars of the GFC getting a bit itchy again....

 

...what's the question exactly?

 

If the current trend continues and the Liberal brand becomes toxic you might start to see even bigger losses for Melbourne and Sydney after Christmas and in the lead up to the next federal election .

 

Your joking right everybody in the know sold there IPS 18 months ago and won't enter again till December 2019 early 2020 even SMS should be out shares 9 months ago good luck

 

Well wont fear push more investment into housing? And if other sectors have problems or the stock market remains volatile, wont housing be the preferred strategy? Could RBA even push interest rates lower or could there be other stimulus strategy if consumer spending bottoms out?

CBA interest rate structure seems to suggest rates could drop further. Sydney might have needed a correction but overall wont everywhere else just have a chance to catch up? I guess there is just so much in the media about it crashing, economists still predicting big corrections but I just cant see it. No one here seems bothered.

Perhaps I read too much macrobiz stuff.

 

Based on what "know" ? Agitation of RC, winding up of NG, re-election of liberals? What happened 18 months ago? A few super wealthy peops sold some property? Clearly the "know" is gaining traction. Sheep are jumping but Sydney and Melbourne had to have some kind of correction didnt they - surely no one expected that to keep going at the same pace. So those who "know" are making a contagion? But where are they putting it, stocks or interest - that makes no sense. That would require luck too. So you think the money is going out of Australia or something?

Some markets are still going. Perhaps its just moved. Sydney may have reached its peak but Hobart, Central west NSW and now SA is coming. The money is just moving out of Sydney I think, to where there is growth opportunity.

 

Maybe just use some forward thinking..Look at what happened in Victoria overnight and the peacock tail -style signalling Labor's future superiority come May --July Australians will vote the Liberals out onto the gutter..

Shorten will be the next ""PM"" of Australia ,and I bet he would already be wanting to know the wine list stocks in the lodge cellar and change the paint and the front door locks,and from the way I see things Shorten will also suffer the same fate as Miss Gillard and Mr Rudd ..

But what I,m more interested in is ---What scars do you carry from GFC mach 1 and try and read newspapers that are a month old ---no different from yesterdays news just different dramas queens and kings ..

 

You buy when an asset represents value otherwise sit in cash, all asset comes in cycle
Cheap, fair value, expensive,bubble you just want to make sure you can buy them cheap or below fair value.

It hard to detect a bubble as you can only find out after the fact but you can have a reasonable view with price and return if something is expensive or not justified risk and reward

Crashed and boom who cares, stick to that formular In all market and you rarely lose money.

 

Yes Willair I hear you. The liberals are gone. Will we miss Morrison anyway when in the last few days he has been talking about messing around with supply and demand? I was OK with Turnbull and not liking this one so much. Perhaps on the optimistic side, Shorten will stimulate FHB and there could be money in mid range, lower priced money - buy cheap, do nothing, maybe...

Well I know after GFC I was terrified that the market would bottom out, afraid to buy and yet what happened was the opposite. Amongst all the prophecy of the housing crash and rising interest rates I eventually bought because one lone economist suggested he thought it would boom. Light bulb moment and I actually could see that. Thanks to the lone wolf whose name I cant now remember....

I look back over time and think about the rural properties that my family sold, all the costs involved in doing that, etc and time suggests to me that they should have held and did what they could with all that equity. Its the ticket that gives you access to other markets, isnt it?

Seems to me that when the consensus goes one way, you should perhaps consider the opposite. I dont think I would be more anymore relaxed with funds in the stock market and cash seems kinda pointless unless you are planning something. I have to hold anyway now - probably just trying to cure some dissonance.

But I still cant see there being anything too problematic. Even in Sydney - May June might look scary but that'll be the worst of it. There's not going to be a house crash tsunami I dont think - but I wouldnt want to be in commercial property. Something permanent or long lasting might be happening in small biz retail.

 

Warren Buffett has a saying about the stock market and investing in general: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

 

Holding cash can be beneficial in more than one sense. You can pounce on future bargains as they come along while you a take defensive action against further falls on the stock market and in your Super.

 

Cashed in all my Australian assets in us accounts 770s there is still time to cash out it will get worst this is just the beginning

 

Hi Randall

I had to look up 770 accounts and you sure know how to take protective action! Still its all so global now isnt it? The media are trying to implode things a bit. I had a cheat sheet from one media outlet and a investor sentiment survey from another. I notice too that 7.30 report is doing a story on overleveraged IO buyer - they are whipping it up because it suits their own marketing agendas. (Personally I am still thinking about IP - wondering about south coast and SA). I do hope it doesnt go as far as you seem to think because that would just be frightening.

Its all very interesting though.....

 

New members are usually popping up with crashes and concerns and disappear once the survivors make a living.

If you park cash with only 20% loan, what can it happen to safe as house? And we can always control the risk level by managing that ratio

 

If you park cash with only 20% loan, what can it happen to safe as house? And we can always control the risk level by managing that ratio[/QUOTE]

This perspective might be new for me and I am restructuring stuff right now - it seems to me that how things are structured is really important. Do you mean only borrowing 20% of current value and then property is protective?