If labour get in , will Sydney have a mini boom ?

We're planning on selling a unit in Manly to clear debt in our Super .

Lease ends in mid july and plan is to do reno and sell .

But , If labour get in , will there be a mini boom in Sydney leading up to the end of negative gearing on existing properties ( 30th June 2017 ) .

If so , should we hold and sell in feb 2017 which is typically a hot time in the market .

With Negative gearing ending , that may even be a further decrease in the number of properties coming onto the market which in Manly is at a almost historical low ...

Thoughts appreciated

Cliff

 

I can't see how; wages have stalled, interest rates are dropping, unemployment isn't dropping.

 

I don't think so. People may think same as you do, and want to sell before the price drop. Once people realize there's a 2 tier market and like second hand cars their second hand properties are not worth as much as new (to buyers) , it's going to be interesting.

Wish they would just abolish it for new properties too.. And keep the market free

 

It might do... apartment prices had a boom when the end of the FHB grant on existing was approaching. Made the sales quicker. Everything would list and sell within a week. Post the grant, prices didn't drop off after that, I think it was just a slower market though.

 

Labour would be a disaster for the economy. So far from a boom, we would likely have a bust.

 

That's only if labour stick you their words.

 

If their legislation agenda passed both houses of Parliament the affect on consumer sentiment would be very negative possibly leading us to a recession for the first time in a generation.

 

Always has been.

 

Could be a big jump after the election though either way. Alot of people hold off investing during uncertain times. 2 July people will start looking again.
This spring should be busy.

 

It could be like the pre GST period before 30 June 2000 when lots of developments took place. If investors had an intention to buy, they may pull forward the decision. Owner occupiers could hold back though

 

I wonder what percentage of voting Australians actually want house prices to crash in this current market...

 

Several experts believe so: Property boom to be ‘re-ignited’ if negative gearing changed: economists

 

From the odds that are out there Labor may well win,and if so Australia wide you would see a mini property boom,but what happens after that,as wealth is quite different to income..
6401.0 - Consumer Price Index, Australia, Mar 2016

 

purely from an economic standpoint, and also individual asset value perspective, a labor win would put the economy back by several years. This is especially dangerous because several years ago, there was something called mining as the safety net. Not as much anymore.
On the flip side, the RBA will probably cut rates, and the dollar will be quite low to have to compensate for the economic turmoil that will accompany a labor win.

 

Unfortunately Andrew Wilson is one of them , and I've been unimpressed with his ability to read the Sydney market over the last 3-4 years ......

That's another issue . Hopefully for me , a mini boom might be enough to set us up to where we want to be .

10-15 % in Sydney and 50 % in Brisbane ...

cliff

 

Most of Gen Y but the majority of Gen Y were going to vote Labor anyway. As unpopular as it would be Australia needs some industrial changes around regulations, such as penalty rates. A % of something is better than 100% of nothing but Labor and the unions never understand that until the factory gates are closed and the jobs are gone. I don't agree with all of the LNP policies but sometimes it's better the devil you know.

 

then Gen Y will be shooting themselves in the foot. Australia will be uncompetitive more so than they are now if labor and unions get in power. GenY jobs of tomorrow ( and not that much into the future really) will depend on this competitiveness.

 

This is my 02c

If you really must sell due to economics etc etc (I would hold anything I owned in Sydney and always regret selling), anyway, if that is the course, I would hold off till then (Jan/Feb) ignoring labour and any possible rush to buy.

Or, maybe look at using one agency to see if they can get you an elevated price once reno is done just before spring, if they can't do well in the 60-90 days, go to someone else you know in the area in the new year.

I say this because I have seen the low end of the market have a bit of a bounce back, I think people now know about the lending changes and the uncertainty around that has gone, ironically someone I know who really disliked having an investment prior, are now going to buy an investment property.

With the possible rate cut/s, in your time frame, I would hold till then.

 

I think some investor purchases will be brought forward, coupled with the first signs of investor lending relaxing - yes, I would put a bet on some upwards pressure - nothing that could be described as a boom though.
The smart (and it will be the smart investors locking in grandfathering ... At the right price) investors bringing forward purchases will still look for quality stock, smart investors don't have tax as their number one consideration.
They definitely won't soak up excess OTP "investment grade" crap.

 

Here's some commentary indicating that there may be a short term spike in investor activity prior to the election. Generally property markets are more subdued prior to elections so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Negative gearing talk spurs investor loans