I want to take advantage during covid 19 / what should i do / opinions?

Or maybe 100 ( Great Depression ) or over 55 ( late 1980's recession ).
It's good to be positive and dream of the impossible but to be pragmatic in times of chaos and disorder!
I do agree with you below 30's haven't yet experienced an economic collapse.
It usually goes in approximately 30 year cyles so if we discount the GFC which Australia did thanks to the mining boom and Rudd it is a little late.

 

Property experts never predict the market dropping.
Why would they do that?
That would be like a politician saying everything I will say when I am serving in Parliament is true and will happen.

 

I can totally understand that.
The pain won't really hit home till after Easter.

 

If you actually read my post, I said the property 'experts' ARE predicting a market drop of 20%.

You're yet to provide any source or basis for your comments. Your comments are based on what? Do you have any credentials? You say in one thread the market is going to drop 30-40%, then the next thread a 20-30% drop - you clearly haven't made up your mind.

Your comments so far are coming across as rather troll-ish on a community that is otherwise very informative. Please, if you can't back up what you're trying to push, please go post on Whirlpool or similar. Keep this place informative and a good resource for useful information.

 

You generally have to wait about 12- 18 months for people to burn through their saving first.
So 2021 is probably a safer bet, certain areas will be hot harder than other , especially those that are high in one and two bedroom apartments that rely on foreign students and areas with a high concentration of short term (airbnb etc) accommodation.
It also the holiday homes that get flogged of first during a downturn .
The inner Sydney area and certain coastal suburbs are already seeing large increases in rental stock over the last 4 weeks.
If these cannot be rented out they eventually end up on the for sale market.

 

Hey mate , if you had to guess how much do you think Brisbane would suffer?

 

That seems like an unsupported claim that is not particularly useful for the original poster.

 

no 30% drop is consensus for most major banks at the moment

 

I can provide a source House prices headed for $60k tumble
This is conservative mainstream media.
I am thinking 30% but hey I appreciate you noticing me and giving my thoughts and opinion some weight.
Trollish- why? My intentions are good. I have sold 2 investment properties in the last 3 weeks. The market is going to drop no doubt about it. All I am doing is helping fellow brothers and sisters to avoid the pain and to sell if they are able to while the market has some keen buyers. If they can ride the storm for 2-4 years values will bob up to where they are now ( no reliable source as no one with credentials can realistically predict such a long term trend especially in such volatile times).
I value this website as informative and I am only providing a balanced and unemotional discourse of how this unprecedented time in history is playing out.
I wish you and your loved keep safe, well and happy.

 

House prices headed for $60k tumble
Hey fellow Perth guy, please read this very credentialed mainstream media post with all the ribbons.
If you look at the mathematical statistics you will observe that Australia has a smidge under a 10% annualised fall in property for the March quarter.
I haven't read the official ABS since the pandemic but I can imagine unemployment is over 25%. Soon to rise for at least 2 months minimum.
It's gonna hurt, please don't shoot the messenger.
Sell whatever you can, while the market has the keen buyer.
Another week or 2 and it's shot.
2-4 years if you can ride it out it will be back and punching better than ever.

 

Just a FYI, this article is dated April 2, 2019.

 

I agree there won't be a 30% drop across the board

 

Fascinating. Peehaps now you can explain how a $930,000 median dropping by $60,000 equates to a 30 to 40% drop?

Absolutely appalling advice.

I actually doubt that in Perth. Because the Perth market has been so bad for so long, I have set up my property portfolio to be profitable without relying on capital growth.

 

I'm not overleveraged or overinvested, so does that make my view more valid? To address your point though, people are claiming a 30 to 50% drop in prices. It's pure speculation. Then when they start telling people to sell everything it's when it becomes terrible advice. Houses are not shares that you sell high and rebuy lower just because the market corrects.

Good advice for the O.P, invest for the long term.

 

My LVR is 50%. Hardly over leveraged?

You've got a brand new, unknown account making comments about a housing downturn DOUBLE that of people with known credentials. I simply wanted to know on what basis they thought this, as nothing (still*) has been provided to assist in this theory/speculation. I'm here to learn, and contribute where I can - these posts by Revolution are not educational, and do come across as nothing more than speculation to what? Scare? And then terrible, terrible advice to sell!

* A) The link posted is a year old. It doesn't take into account anything happening TODAY.
B) If you read it, it's talking about a 6% change for Sydney and Melbourne basically.
C) It's news. Com .au, hardly a good source for anything.

End of the day, I want to know WHY Revolution thinks that, and on what basis. Maybe they're in the know of something we're not?
At the moment, Revolutions posts bear ZERO weight on anything for me. But I like to explore ideas and information further before I completely dismiss them. Hence why I ask.

 

If the antibody tests can get underway and mass testing undertaken, this will boost morale and general sentiment and get people back out into the community.
CDC begins blood tests to find undetected coronavirus cases

 

A 60k drop would be 6% off the Sydney median, prices are up about 15% yoy alone. Unemployment isn't anywhere near 25%, it isn't even 10%. And the link you posted in your above post is from 2018...

Yes the world has a health and economic crisis, but dribbling uninformed rubbish to forum of financially literate people, is a foolish look mate.

 

Yeah mate im only in the game to invest for the long term , im not interested in flipping etc

 

So if my $9m property collecting $230k rent pa net (which I bought for $3m in 2013) fell 30% to say 6.5m, should I be running for the hills? Lol

 

This is what I have done: I had a very negative portfolio, which is not robust for the long term. I sold my highest value, lowest rent property. I took the money from that and bought a house that the previous owners screwed up.

By screwed up what I mean is: there was a 3x2 house with an attached granny flat with a separate entrance. So what the owners did was punch a hole through the double brick wall from the 3rd bedroom if the house into the bathroom of the granny flat with no door! The floor plan was terrible but relatively easy to fix. After a renovation to fix the floor plan, that property is a nice little earner. As an investment property, it is basically irreplaceable and I would be crazy to sell it.

With the rest of the money from the sale, I built a two storey house in the backyard of another IP. The return on that is great, with very secure tenants. I have not subdivided yet, so I have a renovated house and a new build on one parcel. If I sold that now it is not possible to replace. I would be stupid to sell it.

Rents fluctuate. I had one property rented for $440 per week and after rental prices collapsed, I had to reduce the rent to $280. It happens and smart investors will be prepared for it.

There will undoubtedly be distressed sellers in the next 3 to 6 months or even after that, so it's worth watching the market to see if any good deals get listed.