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Huge population growth expectations, what about their employment?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by TheSackedWiggle, 29th Jun, 2015.

  1. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    I have heard this quite often "huge population growth (skilled immigrant) expectations makes the real estate price rise justified"

    Just curious, Where are the employment opportunities going to come from for these new migrants and existing population?

    Australian economy is already struggling with rising unemployment in real terms,
    Mining is in down hill demand wise, Manufacturing units closing down left and right.

    With new technological advancements a big chunk of future work in agriculture/mining/manufacturing sector can be automated via robotics (this is a reality within next 5/10 years not science fiction any more).
    Stem cell research along with 3D printing can/will bring some amazing changes and many other technological advances can reduce the dependency on humans even in health care sectors.

    Adidas is already trying robotic(and quite successfully) for complete automation of few lines of its sneakers, This is huge as shoe manufacturing is one of the difficult challenges for automation due to varied small parts.

    Self driving cars are a reality in next decade making cab drivers around the world redundant.

    Where do we see the real growth of employment in a decade or two?
     
    Last edited: 29th Jun, 2015
  2. thatbum

    thatbum Well-Known Member

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    I thought skilled immigration my definition in Australia was to meet demand in certain areas where there are skill shortages.
     
  3. keithj

    keithj Moderator Staff Member

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    Employment IS growing, it's just that population is growing slightly faster ATM, hence the slight increase in the unemployment rate.

    I certainly don't expect the jobs of the future to be much like the current jobs. Think of all those buggy whip makers & farriers of 100 yrs ago.... those jobs disappeared but we still have only 6% unemployment - however today we have plenty of baristas, policy advisors and forum administrators.
     
  4. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    That's technically correct 'thatbum' but in reality I think most of it is about providing cheap labor for industries where bulk of party donations come from :)
     
  5. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    6% unemployment figure mask the high underemployment levels
    as most of the new job employment remains part-time.

    The disruptive changes brought by technological advancements are bringing exponential growth for a fraction of real effort(ie far lower job creation). So though digital industry will grow very fast but theis growth will not replace the loss in other sectors.

    For last two decades we have been good at two things
    1. digging holes and selling dirt
    2. flipping house to one another
    Just wondering, What do we have to show for the boom from last decade apart form a highly indebted Australian family?

    My point is I think Australia is ill prepared for coming change in trend (Artificial intelligence/robotics/3d printing/genomics) we would struggle to maintain jobs for existing population forget about jobs for new entrants.
    This would be reality in within a decade not far in future.
     
  6. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Which is why we are importing labor...those people have the skills.

    Unless Australia embraces using brains (Consulting, Pharmacueticals, Engineering, Science) rather than brawn Agriculture/Mining we are going to struggle to maintain our standard of living against Asia.

    Europe is realising this quickly.....we need to also ensure that competition is also brought in the labor market for tradies...so the plumbers and electricians making over 120k/ year...watch out. It is a matter of time...

     
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  7. keithj

    keithj Moderator Staff Member

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    I'm not sure the facts support that statement, but it is of course subjective. And I'm sure many are v. happy being under-employed.
    jobsgrowth.jpg

    This is where the jobs are currently....

    JobsSectors.jpg

    ...its easy to see the trends - Health Care & Scientific & Technical are strongly rising - most other sectors are flattish. Not many are employed digging dirt or flipping houses. Have a read of this.

    What do you think Australia should be doing to prepare for the change in trend ?
     
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  8. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    bingo, hey.... but what about locals with skills from past decade who think flipping property to each other is going to last forever and hence have highly indebted themselves? :)
     
  9. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Just go back and have a look at old movies from the mid 70's,back then WPHS was very low in employment, now days it would take up a high % wise,the same as the real estate industry,now you even have franchised property rentals oven cleaners,then you have China's middleclass that are starting to travel for short term ,that within itself would start employment chains depending on location airports,and apart from prostitution and gambling every other business model will have to change..
     
  10. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    An average Australian plumber/electrician makes more than a phd scientist :)
    Lets get our priorities right

    Encourage technological/biotech/AI startups by providing government subsidy.
    Funding for schools targeted towards this new trend. Specialized subjects like computer programming/AI/Robotics to be part of primary curriculum in some form to encourage interest. This is a long path towards future proofing.

    Re-skilling should be incentivized rather than making imports easy, as other wise we will have a society (with high debt and no jobs) with growing resentments toward new entrants.

    Housing is a basic necessity like medicine and should not be encouraged to be a speculative asset especially in a country as big as Australia.
    Land is not scarce but speculation and land-banking has made it so.
    Discourage property speculation by applying macro-prudential measures.
    Increase land supply and limit negative gearing to new houses if shortage is reality.
     
  11. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Huh? There is just one forum Admin...and that's Sim...
     
  12. Egga

    Egga Member

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    I'd say most of it would come from building and construction/transport and logistics.
     
  13. Beelzebub

    Beelzebub Well-Known Member

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    Well according to economists immigration creates jobs. Each new migrant apparently creates 1.1 to 1.2 jobs: So 10 migrants = 11 - 12 jobs according to the experts. How representative this is in reality I don't know, but I suppose the point is that immigration doesn't mean less jobs, they create their own. A migrant buys a car, gets a hair cut, goes to the local cafe etc. After all over 100,000 people arrived in Victoria last year and I believe that the unemployment rate has decreased a little?

    Also, the idea that technological advances will destroy jobs has been around since the beginning of industrialisation. People were screaming about how the steam engine and the automation of the spinning wheel was going to destroy employment in the textiles industry. In fact a group called the Luddites went around destroying the machines. In the end the technology went ahead, in the short term many lost their jobs but in the long term the prices of garments came down, the quality improved and the textiles industry employed more workers than ever before, they were just in different roles operating the machines.

    Technological advances are almost always a good thing. Labour is a commodity and it generally speaking finds away to be useful. If you can use technology to free up that commodity for other purposes then society as a whole ends up producing more, providing more for society as a whole.

    Where the new jobs will be I am not sure, but I'm confident that the market will figure it out.

    Beelzebub
     
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  14. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    That's right...I don't know another country, developed or developing, where truck drivers, plumbers, garbo's etc get that kinda money...it's a surefire way to be the next greece.
    Low skills ie low value should equal low pay. Converse should also hold true. If that's not happening, as you rightly infer above, then we are totally uncompetitive especially in relation to high skilled jobs and guaranteed will lose out to other countries. This has already happened to a large extent and is happening...a tough one to fix though...the unions will cry foul...
     
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  15. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    The problem is; most folks who come here as immigrants don't want to go to areas outside of cities.

    Just watch; many will come, go out to theses areas initially, then gradually find their way to the big smoke.

    I seriously doubt that the average plumber or electrician is making this much per year...many headed to the mines during the boom because they were being offered this kind of money. If they were already earning it, they would not have bothered to up-heave their life as it was.

    I don't see full-time jobs growing. Currently we are seeing thousands of jobs disappear every month it seems. Aust Post just the latest for this last week in the news.

    Which industries are booming that much that they can absorb the lost jobs? I can't think of one. The trades are not hiring in any sort of mass, and apprenticeships are dwindling..

    Meanwhile, many places are remodelling to delete full-time and create part-time and/or casual positions to cut costs and liabilities.

    And, don't forget the elephant in the room which is the Chinese economy; currently slowing right down...this will effect our exports, and more jobs to go as a result.
     
    Last edited: 30th Jun, 2015
  16. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    It's pretty bleak in my city in terms of employment opportunities.

    http://indaily.com.au/opinion/2015/02/24/hold-skilled-migration-until-sa-economy-improves/

    Far from being the land of new opportunities touted by the State Government, new migrants are finding South Australia riven with high unemployment.
    More than 15,000 permanent migrants settle in South Australia every year, although not all stay. Over the past five years, 9,265 skilled migrants were successfully nominated by the State Government. Many also bring their families.
    We need a five-year moratorium on state-nominated migration as we’re creating a burgeoning underclass of migrants – a ‘precariat’ of marginalised unemployed and under employed contract workers. The term comes from Guy Standing’s book, The Precariat: The New Dangerous Class (2011), which examined the rise of an emerging class, characterised by inequality and job insecurity.
    According to the ABS, in January 2015 there were 54,442 unemployed South Australians (born in Australia) and another 15,651 unemployed people who were born overseas. While some of these may be long-term immigrants who have lost their jobs, the bulk of them arrived in the last five years.
    Half of Adelaide’s 16,000 jobless families live in Adelaide’s northern suburbs.
    The state government nominates migrants if they have the skills and experience needed on the skilled occupation list. They must stay in SA for two years. Neither the skilled occupation list nor the graduate occupation list bears any resemblance to local employment potential. According to Commonwealth Department of Employment, some of these professions and trades are in serious decline.
    Why would a state government spin SA’s charms to people in England, India and China, when locals can’t get a job here? The answer is – money.
    In a broad-based and diverse modern economy, migrants pump cash into the state for rental accommodation, schools, food and utilities. They may take six months to a year to get a job and, when they do, they become ‘cash generators’. Migrants are a boon when the economy is going well for a raft of social and economic reasons.
    But in a dysfunctional old economy, this ‘cash cow’ soon dries up once the migrants realise crippling unemployment is endemic. They can’t access Newstart for two years, so they live frugally off their savings. They become the new poor – a disillusioned and disenfranchised ‘precariat’.
    That’s why you have Indian and Pakistani migrants with Masters degrees in IT and engineering working as taxi drivers, cleaners or in telemarketing. What a waste of human potential. The State Government is sentencing highly skilled workers and their families to penury, as we teeter precariously on the cusp of mass unemployment in South Australia.
    I’m strongly pro-migration but these are exceptional circumstances. It’s too easy to spin the state like this: ‘South Australia has plenty to offer migrants such as a low cost of living, a great climate, affordable housing and increased vibrancy in the city.’ That might be true if you want to replace your life with something as facile as a ‘lifestyle’.
    For the workers at Holden’s and its supply chain, Caroma, Bradken, ACI, Campbell Arnotts and thousands of other production workers, the future has little to do with lifestyle and everything to do with survival.
    When migrants research Adelaide, they find PR puff pieces on happy people drinking wine in the hills and dogs and children romping along a beach. The truth about the state’s most serious economic problems since the 1930s is buried by media spin.
    Two cycles are running through the SA economy. There’s the short-term economic cycle of falling mineral prices and tight retail spending. These come and go. But there is a far more serious structural mechanism at work. This is the stagnation and decline of the old manufacturing and construction economy with its allied professions and supply chains. This ‘unwinding’ of the old economy has far-reaching effects and it’s hitting the poor hardest.
    In a regressively deductive economic climate, migrants must not only battle a contracting economy, but also fight age prejudice, race prejudice, cronyism and nepotism in our recruitment industries. There are some jobs but they aren’t in the traditional blue-collar industries in the northern and western suburbs, where migrants predominantly settle. They’re in health and aged care.
    The ABS define being employed as working one hour a week. This is a dangerous sham. Few labour market specialists believe that SA’s unemployment rate is 6.9 per cent (trend) and that youth unemployment is 14.6 per cent. The real rate is closer to 12 per cent (trend) and rising. Real youth unemployment in Adelaide is above 30 per cent. Many people have stopped looking for a job and therefore don’t show up on the monthly unemployment statistics.
    Much of the job readiness training for migrants in Adelaide is useless, with limited vocational application. There are no measures to determine whether migrants actually get work after the training, or if they do, how long they stay employed. Migrants are paying thousands of dollars to undertake courses that play no intrinsic role in helping them find career specific jobs. As for older job seekers (migrant or non-migrant), they have been cast on scrap heap and will also join a growing disaffected precariat.
    We are also seeing the rise of right wing and anti-Islamist groups such as the Patriots Defence League, who opposed a mosque planned in Greenfields. Other groups attacked the Fleurieu Milk Company and Vili’s for pursuing Halal certification. Right wing and anti-migrant organisations gather like vultures around states that are doing it tough.
    The state is entering a phase of mass unemployment. Stop state-nominated migration now for five years and get new migrants jobs.
     
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  17. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    Where are you looking Bayview? Is this just a gut feeling....something to back up your assertion aside some localised anecdotal evidence?

    Thousands of jobs are disappearing every month and thousands of jobs are created every month. Aussie Post cutting jobs is a much more succinct and alarmist headline than thousands of new jobs created through the fall of the Aussie dollar creating opportunities in tourism and education.

    Full time employment increased in May 2015 by 14,700 jobs. Its not all doom and gloom out there.

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0
     
  18. timetoact

    timetoact Well-Known Member

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    It's all supply and demand, if there are not enough electricians to service demand then the ones that have too much work start to put their prices up. Eventually people start talking in forums about how much electricians earn and all of a sudden more people start becoming sparkies to earn the good coin and eventually there is an over supply and they start competing for the business and put their prices down.

    Maybe in Australia at the moment it is not desirable to be a truckie therefore those that need to hire drivers are competing for limited staff, therefore pushing wages up. Eventually people will be like, "hey I can earn double what i am earning in manufacturing if I get my truck drivers license" and bingo more truckies = lower wages.

    Skills in this sense has little to do with it, supply and demand always wins.

    At the end of the day a healthy economy needs all levels of workers to operate properly. If no one wants to drive trucks or fix electrical problems then those that do can potentially earn more than the higher skilled jobs with more participants.

    As for immigration, I agree with Beelze, as long as the immigrants are skilled and hard working they will create more jobs than they take.
     
  19. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I agree , it's all supply-demand at the end of the day. But that should play its relevant role.in policy setting and not overwhelm it. Ie direction you are heading should.not be majority determined by supply-demand. That's more of where you are now, where you want to be can and should take into account skills and value drivers.
    Fully agree with last point.
     
  20. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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    I am stunned by the constant demand for housing from those in the medical field, with ageing population expanding hospitals and the requirement for migrants to fill positions such as nurses and Drs. Partly fueled by cashed up older peope reloctating to regional areas for life style and cheap housing and cashing in on high prices in Metropolitan areas.