HTW March 2017 Property Clock

the March 2017 Herron Todd White Month in Review report has a National Property Clock on page 22. It says Sydney Adelaide are rising markets, and Brisbane is a Start of Recovery market, Melbourne is Approaching Peak of Market, what is your opinion?

http://www.htw.com.au/Downloads/Files/291-Month-In-Review-March-2017.pdf

 

I really think this clock is a waste of time

There are so many markets and sub-markets within many of these cities, all at different stages of their cycles. The way they are grouped together and sorted is way too general to give any investor specific information to buy.

I think if you feed the data used by HTW to make this clock to a different research company, using different parameters/indicators and they'll come up with a different clock.

 

Adelaide - rising.
Sydney - approaching peak.
Melbourne - approaching peak.
Brisbane - rising.
Hobart - rising.
Perth - dead DNR.

 

waste of time

 

Bahaha

 

Well lets hope their right about Brissy...about time too !
Be nice if Brissy is average $1mill by end of 2018

 

I doubt. Currently sydney is around $1.1m, so a 10% crash would make it to $1m or may be 950K in the next 2-3 years timeframe. Melbourne will be around 850-900K.
Brissy should be around 750-800K Max, meaning from current 520-540K (depends on which website), still a healthy increase is coming IMO.

 

It has some bizarre comparisons .

For example Sydney and ipswich are both in a rising market ( no , they don't have Sydney near or at peak ) .

Interesting given the price rises we've seen in Sydney .

Ipswich has the same median as 8 years ago and is still below the 2012 median

Again , Sydney is rising and Melbourne is approaching the peak .

Me thinks some of these came up from that most reliable Predictor , aka the dart board .

Cliff

 

I read the Adelaide section.. all they did was ask questions, no real insight

 

Am on the ground, can confirm

 

These clocks are for fools...there is no such thing as a 'single' real estate market in any of these cities!!

 

well, thanks guys for these valuable comments and opinions. personally I don't agree with the HTW clock either.

reason why I posted it here, it reminds us, new or experienced investors, not to read too much into these predictions, media reports, or even these institutional reports either.

Do our own research, especially PCer research, which is much more accurate and reliable.

sorry being a bit cheeky.

 

I think Sydney has to be at peak.
Almost every article about sales highlights the extremity at which Sydney has risen to. At the same time so many reports about housing affordability. I think those getting into Sydney now and paying top dollar could be quite burned.
I see Brisbane as start of recovery/rising.

 

I do read the research section, not the clock.

 

I think markets respond to economic forces like investor sentiment and market fundamentals (rental demand, physical housing supply, incomes, population growth, debt, rates etc), not arbitrary "cycles" or time periods.

 

Dart board sounds about right.

 

What do you think the investor sentiment is in Sydney now? Euphoria or FOMO?

 

FOMO and YOLO