HTW August 2017 property clock- Sydney in decline

They haven't had Hobart on peaking.

 

Yes, but Hervey Bay's been at the 'start of recovery' position since well before I bought in late 2015. Not that it bothers me, I'm happy to wait for the ride up to the next peak

 

I too like the SOM increase/decrease indicator. I also like to look at discounting rate and how long stock takes to clear as well as anything to do with S/D. Best info is always on the ground, up to date feedback from players in the particular market you are looing at.

 

With auction clearance rates at 74% today for Sydney (though this really only represents approx 25% of total sales) we aren't really seeing signs of a big slowdown. Hills district is still solid, though some vendors will need to adjust their high expectations at times to meet the reality of the market. Houses/townhouses in particular in the sub $1.2m price bracket still selling strongly and especially anything on decent land or boutique blocks. Units will correct as supply comes onto the market however with state and local govt still fighting here over what exactly can/can't be built it should be a while before over supply potentially becomes an issue here.

Sydney isn't one market, and can't be assessed as such. What is clear is that sentiment has changed, affordability is biting and tighter lending criteria/changes to foreign buyers/developer 50% max on foreign buyers/SD concessions for FHBs will impact our market. What isn't clear is whether this will translate to a cool down, a decrease or a plateauing of prices. Sydney is still a high demand international city with generally more buyers than stock at this point in time.

 

@Jacque , really appreciate your insights. The question is how long and hard will the regulatory and borrowing limitations affect demand. Wth areas like Quakers hill still hot there will be pockets that continue to sell with hope that if not in this cycle but the next it will appreciate given location advantages. The HTW report may not be reflective of what August end looks like but at least is true for my suburb for July.

What are other market drivers after FHB grants?

 

Sydney boom still rolling. Goodnight everyone.

 

ooooh babe, let the good times roll

 

Still waiting for the 60% crash. lmfao.

 

Spoke to an agent in the hills district last night, he is seeing less people at opens, more stock coming onto market (and it's not even spring)

Bank Val's not stacking up and finance issues being the main reason the buyers are leaving.

Houses in kellyville selling for $100k under what they would have a few months ago.

I'm convinced the run is over.

 

Anecdotal evidence from Northern Beaches.

1. I have been looking for a PPOR on the Northern Beaches for some months and have definitely noticed a reduction in numbers of people at the home opens that I have attended. Used to be 30 to 50 parties sometimes up to 100, now down to10-15.

Was recently very interested in this property:

https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-elanora+heights-125903050

It’s a good solid property on a good block in a good suburb, high side of the street, sea views from upstairs, 15 years young, immaculately maintained – not a cent to spend. A through street – but not the busiest. Walk to bus and shops. Not the prettiest house from the street – but not massively ugly either.

Went to all four opens, no more than 10-15 parties per open.

Auction was due yesterday. Rec’d a call from the agent midweek saying there were only two players left, me and another party who hadn’t got finance approved and now needed to sell his house to finance this purchase and hence wanted an extended settlement. Would be withdrawn from auction and would I like to buy it today!

I declined to match the vendors expectations and the property was withdrawn from auction and remains for sale. I’m sure it will sell, probably shortly and probably for a good price (for the vendor).

But the fact remains… this is the first property that I have a looked at in the last few months that has been withdrawn from auction and certainly the first where I was in a position to buy without competition.

2. Had dinner at a friends last night. Their son was present who has been working as a junior with the local estate agents across two branches for around 8 months. I believe he works with all the sales agents doing their junior/grunt work. He stated that all the agents were noticing fewer people at opens and that they were ramping up for a lot of stock coming on in Spring.


3. Is it just me or does there appear to be a lot more “sold prior’s” in the auction results. It would seem to me that the only reason a vendor would accept an offer prior to auction would be if, after feedback from their agent (which can only be about a lack of prospective bidders prepared or able to pay their desired price), they are nervous about achieving the same result at auction. A quick count shows approx. 103 properties of the 631 on the domain results list were sold prior. That’s around 16%. This seems higher than previous to me (anybody here track this?) Surely these are only a step away from a “passed In” or a “withdrawn” result. So yes 74% is 74% but it doesn’t look very solid to me.