HTW August 2017 property clock- Sydney in decline

https://www.htw.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Month-in-Review-August-2017-Residential.pdf

 

Thanks to @Jack Chen for pointing this resource.

 

Thanks @New2prop for confirming that the sentiment is starting to change in the Hills district

 

No offence intended but it is a very unreliable clock. I wouldn't base my buying decision on this. They had Hobart on peaking 2 - 3 months ago and now it has moved back to 'rising market' in the same bracket as Adelaide.

 

Interesting

 

The more i look back in history, the I think there is no such thing a property or investing clock.

 

Perhaps the HTW clocks should be considered a best guess marker of sentiment for each location at a snapshot in time. It can easily change month to month, and not run in a specific direction with any fluidity or smoothness like a normal clock. Instead a location can jump around a bit - and if say you have a location in "rising", it does not attempt to tell you how strong the rise would be nor does it have an indication of how long that location will stay in that classification either. That is something that would be awesome to have. Knowing that Sydney's boom was going to run for around 4 years and have such an amplitude, it's the crystal ball we would all love ...

Therefore it has a partial picture and unfortunately knowing how strong and long the boom (or flatness or downturn as the case maybe) in each location is not what it is attempting to answer. However it can give you a feel of current sentiment in many locations in one easy picture.

 

The best data is data that corroborates other pieces of data and also reflects what is happening on the ground. I've always found any single piece of data to be highly unreliable until corroborated and the ground starts to reflect the data being looked at.

 

Fully agree

 

These clocks are usually marketed to change sentiments of the herd. And in some cases, to further fuel already burning cases of self-fulfilling prophecies.
And as I mentioned in another post, this is not even a clock given it never moves clockwise.

 

Agree, i think its an interesting novelty and maybe a rough gauge of sentimment. In Adelaide's case i dont think it cycles in a way that fits the clocks model. Maybe more suited to markets that move in larger more volitile swngs?

 

Agreed with you folks that the clock doesn't move in one direction and a constant pace. If it did we would have worshipped it, made physical clocks like them and hung them in our living rooms so when it was at 6'o clock position we would put on our shopping shoes and buy property!

What this clock did for me was give a language and a perspective that markets moves through these phases. Some markets like Sydney could move from Declining to Rising in a matter to weeks while others like Perth/ Darwin may take months. So instead of thinking that the markets are behaving erratically one can at least think of them (like Syd/Mel) spending a little less time in any one phase. This indirectly also means that different markets have different drivers/ legs which continue to help them keep running longer than take a breather.

For my current personal circumstance, as I was looking to buy a PPOR this clock helped me to reassure what I saw on the ground in the Sydney hills area. My observations were that the number of properties being sold in a month is slowing (in July only 10 props sold per Re.com), number of auctions have slowed, participants at auctions are 1 or 2, props are being taken off auction and open homes and now available for rent. A 4/2/2 house for auction for upwards of $1.4 Mn until 2 weeks ago is now available for $680 a week! So for me the clock reconfirmed the ground reality. How long this phase will last, I don't know. And that's where I look up to smart minds like you to shed some light on what you are seeing and what your intelligent guesses are on the market direction.

 

nice perspective, may I ask where in the Hills are you looking for as I am interested in the area well for a PPOR. But its a big area and I have not narrowed down to certain spots yet. where in the hills are you looking at? Beaumont Hills?

 

i am also waiting to upgrade my ppor soon 12-24 mounts. maybe its time. just backing up the post above. been looking around the eastern/south east suburbs. town houses asking for $1.4m is now going for around $1.25-1.35. thats telling sign imo

 

Cherrybrook, 2126 and surrounds (south Dural and a bit of Castlehill) in Cherrybrook tech catchment

 

Seems accurate for Fraser Coast/Hervey Bay area.
Some strength in sales volume with less discounting from what I see - but it could be just the spring sales coming early?

I agree with other posters not to base buying decisions on this data alone.
Go and do your own research.

 

what are you looking at in south dural? I like Dural but its too expensive.

 

Houses and townhouses

 

Similar to stats, just a guide but I would not bet my life on this information.

Be more interested on volume ie increasing, decreasing this is a good indicator and you cant argue with this

 

I live in Cherrybrook and yes it is slowing down. Then again I think a lot of Sydney is slowing down anyway.

Good luck with your search though. What is your budget?