How Will Technology affect Property Demand?

Planes dont fly in close proximity to each other, and landings and takeoffs are manual. The numbers arent comparable.

 

Self driving cars will have little effect on housing prices. It doesn't solve many problems outside of fixing some traffic congestion.

As I stated previously the answer needs to be less requirement to get into the CBD to begin with. Fast internet from anywhere will play a major role in this.

The next is fast access into the CBD for those that need to be there. This isn't a self driving car getting you into work 10 minutes earlier from the middle ring suburbs. It's access into the CBD from suburbs that by self driving car would still take 3 hours!

 

I still think self driving cars will make traffic smoother. They will know when other cars move from traffic lights and there won't be the delay that human drivers have. Reaction time will be zero. So vehicles will go through traffic lights faster. Self driving cars will respond and smoothly slow down if there's traffic ahead so there's no sudden stopping or starting. Minimise those "accordion type" waves you see in traffic. When the car in front moves, self driving cars behind will all move at the same time. You need a body of self driving cars though to have the real benefits as they will all be able to talk to each other. Also, self driving cars will go the fastest way between any two places. If one route is congested, the GPS will know and they'll just change route on the fly.

 

I'm not doubting that. I said it will fix some traffic congestion but I don't think that will have any effect on housing prices.

A self driving car might save about 10 minutes. If my current commute takes 35 which it does by car then I may be able to get into work in 25.
Big deal! I'd rather have no car and catch the train like I do. It's not solving any problems.

As I said though get me into the city in 40 minutes by train that would usually take me 2 hours be driving and I'm there.

 

Yep I assume Tesla is road testing a part of this with the new semi trucks, convoy mode. Only 1 driver is needed at the head of the pack, the rest follow.

 

Agree with you here. I think it will have a fairly minimal effect on housing prices in cities. Though having car parking maybe less important way down the track when hiring cars instead of owning becomes more commonplace. That won't happen too soon though. And having a garage is always useful for storage/could be a granny flat....

 

Well, I do not know, ask some pilots maybe ? close proximity for an aircraft is a lot larger space than a motor car, and they are not as agile and cannot pull out when committed the way a car can just apply brakes and stop.

But, the point was, complex automation has been around for a while, and the technology already exists and is legal in many places, so it is coming either way.

 

Great thread!

Ok it seems though that everyone thus far are missing some vital variables in considering the consequence of many of these technologies.

Yes, self driving cars will change the game for commuting and ease pressure on the need for CBD jobs.

But we are forgetting that despite work from home and such (enabling people to leave capital cities for regional cheaper quieter nicer areas), many of us have our extended families also living in our capital city metro area too. E.g. if you leave Brisbane for say Cairns or Rockhampton just cause your job lets you - the rest of your family may still be in metro Brisbane.

Also, agree with AR to some extent degree in tertiary level campuses. But for primary and secondary? Absolutely not. It wont happen. Kids need to physically be there for the booksmarts AND social skill development that, Im sorry, cant be faked in an AR or VR setting (no matter how seemless and beautiful that is). Genuine, face to face physical school presence will always be required.

So, if you can agree on that, leta think of the consequence of that on property values in cap cities. Demand will continue to be there for the best schools/catchment zones. And its not just the Chinese going gaga over this. Yes, Chinese will overpay on houses to buy into catchment zones for the best schools, but so do other ethnicities and native (i use that word to describe ppl of any racial composition but who were born and raised in Aus - indigenous included) Australians. So... there will still be demand for 'best schools'.

We can automate a lot in the future but one thing can't be automated: being cultural and social norms, conduct, relationships, and the way a country's peoples interact with one another.

Unless there is economic catastrophe and countries like ours move to a UBI+Production tax system to fund our welfare state; I imagine the race for the dollar and our capitalistic culture in general; will keep many property trends as status-quo.

One prediction I will make with certainty though is itll get harder and harder to fraud a country's benefits and welfare systems. Sadly, all my tech predictions are quite negative and Orwellian in nature. Heres some examples of current-day things being tabled that might frighten you:

- In the near term, Medicare is getting so scammed and abused that they'll move to firstly photo ids on medicare cards, and then eventually full on facial recognition verification to access all/any publicly funded Social services of any kind. They'll keep tabs on people with linked data (already happening).

- Just on the impact of facial recognition (FR) tech... why has no one mentioned this yet? In macro terms, FR will link data, and Canberra has just a month ago passes alarming permissions for access to more and more AU citizens likenesses. Ids, passports, and now driver licences (where was our postal survey for allowing THAT!?). In property terms of course biometrics like FR and fingerprinting will be required to verify ids and purchasers/enquirers of property and linking with 'source of funds'. (Hong Kong: already happening with FR ATMs to prevent the bleed of money sneaking out of China against tbeir rules...!)

 

Downside of self-driving cars:

• More road-kill e.g. ducks wandering onto the road etc
• The time will come when you have to book your journey in advance
• Leading to constant surveillance - no freedom
• Decreased mental + motor function in humans = dumber than we are already
• Less pleasure and sense of freedom

Upside of self-driving cars:

• Less volvo drivers/ 4 wheel drives

inevitabilities.

• Decentralisation
• inner-city won'tl get cheaper.
• Australia's continued growth
• Inland rail (will reduce road kill and death toll and obesity and divorce)
• Fast rail (in approx 100 years).

 

I'm generally against self-driving cars because I like to "drive" but a clear upside would be to take control away from idiots like the one I witnessed a few weeks ago driving down the M1 wobbling across all three lanes because he was too busy doing a Rubik's Cube... as you do.

 

I am just trying to think how technology of the last 100 years has affected the property market and i don't think it has had much of an impact, sure some towns have boomed and others have busted but this has been due to mining, other than that i think there are far more important factors that will effect the property market.... ageing population, immigration, emigration, employment opportunities, state of the economy, Cultural Development, Government etc.. (Look at Venezuela, they were doing okay for a south american country then some crackpot socialist Marxist got elected and look at it now)

 

I'm not sure about decentralisation. The great shift of the last century is from rural to urban environments and this seems to have escalated.

Cities not only have jobs they have all the amenities and concentration of attractions and entertainment. With families getting delayed and the demise of the one company career, I still see people in their 20s and 30s especially wanting to live close to the 'action'.

 

How about the decentralisation, or even elimination of said jobs and entertainment? Most kids these days get their entertainment from home playing video games or watch live events from home as well. I know I'm not a good sample size to survey but I haven't been in the city for a over a month because there is no reason to go.

 

The way I see it self driving + electric has the ability to really bring down the cost of transport.
It might have a small impact on prices.
E.g. in Cities:
* Eventually Change the distribution of prices around public transpot hubs.
* Reduce the premium of suburbs with public transport.

Electric autonomous vehicles will undercut the cost of public transport.

By cutting travel times, fatigue, transport costs, people could reasonably live further out for no negative effect.

But I predict the bigger disruptor might come from the competiton of things, like automation.

 

brb hunting bargains on noisy roads.
Tongue in cheek but a busy road wont be so bad in the future. Quieter and fresher smelling.

 

Not technology related but climate change is a big factor. I think Australia is in denial about this a bit. In New Zealand local governments are doing all sorts of planning around this.
Be prepared to spend some big money on sea walls or your dune-side mansion might not be so attractive as high flood risk (and the nice beach might be gone too from king tides etc.).

 

"Any congestion" is overstating I think. Even if there are no accidents, lag in moving forward etc all those driver things so the cars move seamlessly and quickly behind/around each other, the cars still take up physical space. Growing populations and induced demand will still create congestion.
There will be positive impacts from driverless cars. Definitely more efficient than driven cars but investment in high speed, well connected public transport is still the most strategic way to go.

 

I really wondered where you were going with this. Safe for work now.