How much will brisbane cheapies go up this year ?

@Property Twins , if you listening

do you remember how quickly 2770 went up ?

I wasn’t watching closely as it happened

cliff

 

I'd be interested to hear from the outliers in this poll, we have 2 votes for negative growth and 3 votes for 50% plus. How did people come to these conclusions?

 

I voted 50-70 , but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more

because I’ve seen it happen before .

Brisbane has tried to go up twice before , but external forces stopped it , so there is a pent up demand .

Most of the purchasers at the moment are first home buyers so are more likely to be emotional and keep on bidding due to FOMO . Once you’ve bought a few you’re less concerned , or if it’s one you want you go in hard ...

For many people , affordability won’t be a problem so there is plenty of capacity to pay more .

it’s been a crappy year , people can’t go OS , so people will be thinking ‘ why don’t we buy a house ‘

there’s lots of people who have come back from OS . While some are “ cashed up expats “ some won’t have a lot but still want their bit of Oz .

in an era of uncertainty , people want certainty , a place of their own.

I think the pandemic has made a lot of people review how they look at life . For some people means they are less interested about delayed gratification amd more interested in enjoying the moment because you don’t know what’s going to happen , but for a lot of people it’s causing the opposite reaction . Due to the uncertainty of not knowing what’s around the corner , they want certainty .

it’s cheaper to buy than rent and even with significant rise will still be line ball . So do you pay rent or a mortgage .

those are just a few reasons why I think it is likely to go up and go strongly .

basically

• Pent up demand
• Affordability
• Uncertainty driving a need for certainty .

the more I think about it the more I’m convinced it will happen

cliff

 

I voted 50% (however over this boom cycle rather than 12 mths alone) and that's based largely on the strength of the economy, no extended lockdowns experience, interstate migration towards Bris and that Bris hasn't moved in tandem with it's 2 key rivals over the past 10 years- Syd & Mel and historically speaking, those 3 cities move on similar trajectory but Bris got left behind over the past 10 years.

But I don't agree with the other reasons you highlight in your response as they can apply equally to any other city nationally. Based on those arguments alone, Ade and Per and parts of Mel & Syd should also experience similar level of growth as they are equally cheaper Vs Bris. Those economies are also doing great and they have not had extended lockdowns either. It is also cheaper to buy than rent in Ade and Per. Even in Mel you can find suburbs where it is currently cheaper to buy than rent.

It can potentially double in this cycle but if that happens it is likely that Mel and Syd's cheapies will experience 50%-60% growth as well - to achieve that historical equilibrium. Difficult but possible.

 

If stock stays low, fhb demand is stable and interstate migration continues then Brisbane has the potential to grow more than the other expensive caps for a longer period imo. Incomes on a whole are no different or better in comparable Syd or melb outer areas so can't see why it can't be sustained for the next 3 to 4 years but really depends on whether most of those parameters stay the same.

 

This year we will see a unison of all states house price rise. It is driven by QE and cheap money. The risk have been back stopped by the Reserve Bank by yield curve control of the 3 years curve.
I told my young friends, don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.

 

I forgot interstate migration which is a factor as to why brisbane might do better , out side a widely held desire by many Australians to be in the ‘ sunshine ‘ state . Often that happens with retirement , but the current incertainty might be bringing that move forwards for some so they can enjoy it now .

cliff

 

I voted for the 'boat'. I hate it when a view is not represented, and no one else had voted for the boat.

I think Logan will double.

 

last cycle goodna / Logan peaked at a higher level than Mt Druitt

Entry level Mt d was 240-250. Goodna / Logan around 300 but five years later . Mt Druitt didn’t boom to catch up .

So Mt Druitt peak in 2017 , maybe Goodna / Logan 600 in 2022 ....

cliff

 

You don’t even need to go out that far to get something for that price. Eg Inala.

 

won’t be surprised if it doubles either .

Cliff

 

agreed with the jest of what you are saying but I doubt any southerners idea of 'retirement' in sunshine state' would be to plonk themselves in Logan, Goodna or Griffin

 

you or me , maybe not , BUT , my first exposure to Logan was when I was working in Mt Druitt during the previous boom .

prices had gone from 60 to 240 and quite a few of my patients were cashing in and going north .

they were buying in Logan , ipswich , caboultire for around 60-70 , so that gave them a kitty to buy a weekender , boat , caravan etc .

they had family / friends who lived there .

when I asked what was Logan like compared to Mt Druitt , I was always told “ Much nicer “ .

Having missed out on the Mt Druitt boom , we went up and bought in Logan .

my description at the time ( which I’ve seen repeated many time ..... ) of Logan was Mt Druitt with palm trees .

So while some people have aspirations to
Buy in Noosa , Sunshine Coast , Airlie or palm cove , some people can only afford Logan etc .

sell in Mt Druitt for 550 , you can pay cash up north and have money for the boat or caravan OR..... both .

For some people that’s the dream . For many of my patients in 2770 the dream was to own their 3 bedder housing commission house . Sadly most never lived their dream

Different expectations .

cliff

 

Well articulated @See Change and @Harris , you make a compelling case for the 50%+ scenario. It is certainly plausible, and I am crossing my fingers for it!

 

I think this is definitely a fair point, we can get a bit focussed on the desirable, aspirational areas and forget the fact a large chunk of the population are playing the same game in all the different price brackets.

To someone in a houso unit in Logan Central a free standing house with a backyard in Slacks Creek is the dream. A family renting out the bottom half of a highset on the outskirts of Ipswich would love a place in Goodna. Let's hope they are each talking with a broker at the moment!

 

You are so wrong, there are strong family connections in some of the Logan City Council areas, and there are some lifestyle properties slightly out of the burbs that ppl do retire to. Great swathes of ppl retire in Bethania, Waterford and Waterford West. Some to Stapleton.

It is the sunshine state and our weary arthritic bones are well supported by the sun.

You keep making the mistake of thinking logan is a suburb - it ain't it is a whole city .... centre of the earth for some

 

My Moreton Bay suburb is populated with tradie families who were priced out of upgrading into Sydney and Melbourne's family-friendly suburbs. They could sell up, pay out their old mortgage, and pay cash for a lifestyle home up here with $$ left over for the boat and the other toys. Being trades they can work anywhere, not really interested in the CBD. Other groups moving into their lifestyle homes are FIFO, Health and Military with the incomes to match.

Some may laugh at Griffin - but prices there were stagnant for ten years. It has its own boat ramp, has easy access to the airport and the Gold Coast and Sunny Coast. That is appealing!

 

Hehe, I used to have this same conversation about Mt Druitt areas, when those not familiar with Western Sydney would comment that nobody actually WANTS to live there. Yep, the HC suburbs of Mt Druitt are the cheapest areas, but there's lots of really nice areas not too far away, so there's lots of people that aren't on great incomes that buy in the cheaper areas specifically to be close to family.

 

I am heavily invested in cheaper/ outer burbs (Frankston/ Frankston North) & regional so the aim was not around having a dig at those areas. I was merely pointing to the investment proposition argument around them being 'retirement destinations for southerners' however I agree with the subsequent posts that they might indeed have significant value for some retirees and present as great neighbourhoods with strong community feel.

 

The markets are crazy in particular in the satellite suburbs. What was once sub 200k is selling mid 600's...

The same could have been bought for high 5's late last year...

Low stock is not helping.