How much will brisbane cheapies go up this year ?

Don’t think I’ve ever seen the experts get it right . They always underestimate how quickly a market will move . Even if they thought so , they’d be ridiculed if they came out and said “ I think brisbane will go up 50 % this year “ . They’d be accused of being reckless and hyping the market , irresponsible .

Twice I’ve seen market double in around a year . Bought at the peak of one and at the bottom of another .

do I think brisbane will double this year .probably not , but it wouldn’t shock me . 50 % I think is quite possible if not likely .

My original thread title didn’t include cheapies but for clarity as I don’t know all of brisbane that well , in particular inner an middle rings , I added it . So personally I’m looking at the logans’s goodna’s , Ipswich’s of this town . They’ve just started moving in the last months so will be interesting to see what they do .

cliff

 

Some of the northern outer areas are up 30% from 12 months ago so reckon another 30% is def possible by the end of year. If interstate migration continues to climb then who know what happens. Outer South is not as hot with slower growth but expect that will flip as north prices buyers out.

 

It's possible but not impossible some small pockets on the inner southside maybe will go up 40 percent in some of the upmarket streets,saw that happen several times .. But I think places like Goodna with the entry costs X land content then that may go above the 40 percent range..
Maybe in 3 --6 months time the real picture and data will tell.. imho..

 

Isnt that exactly the problem with expert opinions? They arent investors. They want it to be read in the short term and cant be too far off the ‘consensus’.

 

I've got a couple in Ipswich that I want gone, so hoping for LOTs of growth.

 

We’ve got three out that way.

probably not much under 250 at the moment.

Entry level property in goodna just under contract for 310 in goodna , and if that is sustained we’ll see 280-290 for entry leve in ipswich in the next few months .

We paid 199 - 218

most of the rise has been in the last months . I’m expecting at least 400 but won’t be surprised if they get to 500 .

when we sell will depend on what’s happening with the rest of our portfolio.

will probably keep a couple closer to goodna . Have a nice little 4 bedder which we picked up for the same price as a 3 bedder . Rents a bit more so that will stay .

Cliff

 

Yeah, for me it's a waiting game. We've got those two in Qld that will go, two in Regional Vic that will go and possibly SA that will also go.

 

My vote goes for 50%! I have only lately started looking at Brisbane market (I don't hold any there) in context of affordability to other cities, a lot of commentary in the press and the overall strength of the economy. Surprised to see those price points so I am of the view that we will see median 50% up during this boom - lower quartile may be bit higher/ lower but as an investing proposition, it has everything going for it!

 

It is ironic though that 3 months ago there was a vigorous debate going on about cheapies in brissie never going up but now history repeating itself

 

must have missed that , but doesn’t surprise me as there’s always people who will put down cheapies any where . It’s all part of the , “investment grade property” fallacy argument , which many long term members know is crap ...

cliff

 

Everything goes up! Even out the back of bullamacanca goes up eventually. If Brissy is going up, then everything else will rise also.

 

I voted 10-20%. Haven't invested in any 'cheapie' suburbs though.

 

Any issues? A bit slower than others?

 

I don’t know how much it will rise. But these suburbs have always been constrained with disposable incomes. Highly investor driven area due to higher yield. Who doesn’t want to have their tenants paying all the interest and holding cost? Isn’t that a wonderful thing as investors?

If the saying is true. All rising tides lift all boats, the consensus it would rise 10 to 20%. If it becomes higher, it is a bonus %

 

Zillmere, Alderley, Windsor, Nundah, Gaythorne, Kedron. etc .. should all start moving soon.

 

at the moment it’s all first home buyers in goodna .

currently most entry level houses have been selling around 270 ( one just at 310 ...)

3 % PA on 300 k loan is 9 k .

rents around 270 / week which is 14 k

price at 400,000 interest is 12 k

price at 500,000 interest is 15 k

the only issue is the deposit but once the herd starts moving I can see prices moving quickly . Then it becomes a matter of supply / demand .

cliff

 

the consensus is rarely right in this situation.

 

Straight from ABS 2016

Goodna
Code SSC31198 (SSC)Search for a Community Profile
People 10,461
Male 50%
Female 50%
Median age 30
Families 2,466
Average children per family
for families with children 2.1
for all families 1
All private dwellings 3,750
Average people per household 3
Median weekly household income $1,179
Median monthly mortgage repayments $1,447
Median weekly rent $300
Average motor vehicles per dwelling 1.7
QuickStats Search


Are you saying the house hold will over stretch in 2021 to bid up house price in that area?

 

These area mentioned have been moving consistently upward over the years.
Are you saying it’s moving much much faster?

45 degrees straight line over the years for Kedron
https://www.onthehouse.com.au/suburb/qld/kedron-4031

Zillmere similar pattern but with a bit of a wobble at the later years.
https://www.onthehouse.com.au/suburb/qld/zillmere-4034

Windsor similar 45 degrees line growth
https://www.onthehouse.com.au/suburb/qld/windsor-4030

Do you consider these cheapie suburbs?

 

A safe bet, they'll go up by the same % as everything else.

Cheap areas won't go up by more than the expensive areas without new infrastructure or cash injections (rezoning, redevelopment, gentrification).