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WA How much is Perth moving south?

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by hidflect, 20th Jun, 2015.

  1. hidflect

    hidflect New Member

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    While waiting to buy a property in Perth over the last year I've found the longer I wait, the better the bargains are. Most recently, visiting home opens in Victoria Park (my target area) I have, on two occasions, been the only person to show up. Now today, just looking at auction clearances I see only a 30.77% clearance rate. OK, Perth-ites don't like auctions much but still...

    So I stuck a pin in the calender at December but now I'm tempted to re-pin it later and later.. June '16 maybe. I know you can't time the market perfectly but it seems with the commercial realty bust happening here (To Let, To Let, To Let, everywhere) along with the almost complete end of capex by the miners that there is no light at the end of the tunnel.. for owners anyway. Every agent I talk to says it will be "flat" which I interpret as going down once you remove the REA optimism factor.

    So what do you think?
     
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  2. D.T.

    D.T. Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    If there's a deal that stacks up for you, grab it. You never know whether others will come up or not. And if they do, get yourself in a position to buy those too :)
     
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  3. Singo

    Singo Well-Known Member

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    Hi hidflect, what about the prices of the houses you mentioned? Most are still setting boom time prices only to drop them later. Definitely a good time to grab some bargains as such houses sit longer in the market, potential buyers reckon that something is wrong with them!

    You gotta know the value of the houses in your area to grab some bargains. For example, let me look at Gosnells. Around 2011, the average price was 300k. But you still could grab bargains at 250k (needing TLC) Price range 250k-350k.

    Then came the mini boom and you could never get anything below 350k and then the market slowed down. Now you can grab bargain at 300k. Now the price range 300k-400k. So the market in my opinion have moved by about 50k. If I wait for bargains at 250k, I reckon it is not going to happen. 300k is the new 250k. I don't think the prices will go further south than this. If you get something for less than 300k, that is a bargain now.

    If you know your market, you will identify the bargains. Investors were grabbing bargains even during boom times. It is all about knowing your market. I reckon it doesn't really matter whether it is June or December.
     
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  4. HD_ACE

    HD_ACE Game-Changer Premium Member

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    Keep your finger on the pulse from tommorrow through the next 18 months. This way you will come accross several properties that fit in with your strategy and then its just up to you to negotiate the best deal on the most suitable property.

    Good luck.
     
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  5. Mike Valetta

    Mike Valetta Member

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    Wait a year. Still plenty of punters out there thinking they can get boom time 2012 prices. Fast forward a year and things will get interesting.
     
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  6. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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  7. Singo

    Singo Well-Known Member

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  8. Catalyst

    Catalyst Well-Known Member

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  9. BazWami

    BazWami Member

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    Thinking Perth market a little confused/unsure given Sydney price activity at the moment. Gut feeling telling me to wait and see.....short term beginning of new financial year....mid/longer term end of calendar year. Just a personal observation.

    baz
     
  10. TobyRichardson

    TobyRichardson Active Member

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    A deal is a deal is a deal.
    Factor in what negative growth you expect, be more selective with prospective properties, and make money over the next year using a strategy to match the climate.
    Then, in July 16 use whatever strategy you intended to use anyway.

    If I waited a year every time the market didn't move my way, I'd be purchasing a pre-paid funeral as my first major purchase.
     
  11. PICT

    PICT Member

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    Apperently Vic Park is bucking the trend and is up 4.6%

    I'm looking for my first property since emigrating and doing 5-10 home opens every weekend and they are still quiet. But auction clearance rates are up to 50%.

    I can't see it from the figures I am seeing, but there must be some showing it as my rental is now going up for sale at a crazy price and just got a letter drop from another agency touting for business saying the same thing. I know of one property that was bought overpriced in Vic Park as the buyer owned the land next door and is looking to the future, but have been told its due to a few house sales.

    Anyway first post done, I've been a bit of a lurker on the last forum but thought I would sign up for this one. Looking to get a principle residence first then look at IP's in the future. Still have properties back in Scotland but looking to invest here in Australia once we get ourselves sorted out.
     
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  12. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Flat is declining prices in real terms. I agree the market will be flat for at least 6 months. That said, it depends on where you are looking and what you are looking for. I know in Bayswater, in pockets that are tightly held, prices are still fairly strong and places are still selling quickly. It depends on the demand for that product at that price in that area.

    If you are looking for a rental though, just watch out for rental prices, demand and vacancy rates. There's no point picking up a "bargain" now, only to find you can't get a tenant and it sits empty for 3 months. And when you finally get a tenant you find prices have dropped in the area anyway.

    Probably a good idea to keep actively looking, so you know what the market is doing but hold off buying for now. Unless you find something specaular at a price too good to miss :)
     
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  13. Jess Peletier

    Jess Peletier Mortgage Broker - Australia Wide Business Member

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    I like Vic Park, about 15 years a go there was a great little Italian restaurant there that had the best chilli mussels. Lots of good memories :) If you're looking to buy or upgrade a PPOR in Perth, the next 12 months will a great time to be in the market - you have the luxury of fewer buyers to compete with, anxious sellers, good discounts and the banks are falling over themselves to lend money to you. Even better if you don't need to sell your existing home.
     
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  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I would not be touching anything at the moment, market is still going south and employment figures are not looking great, more negative news on the horizon which will effect the market.

    What you think is a bargain today will be a property you paid too much for in 6 months time. Are you in a rush to lose money, this is how you do it.

    There will always be markets that buck the trend, let me know when you find one please, and by this I mean rising

    I am not giving up on Perth, but for me timing is not right for my just my opinion


    MTR:)
     
    Last edited: 14th Aug, 2015
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  15. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I agree, good time for upgrading blue chip, primary residence, shopping for this would lots of fun:)
     
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  16. PICT

    PICT Member

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    Exactly what i'm thinking, looking to buy our PPOR within 1.5 years but mainly looking at 9-13 months unless something pops up that is suitable or the market looks like its going to crash fully. I feel the whole of Perth just now is in a bit of denial, the same thing happened in the UK in 2008 and its still not recovered to where it was before.
     
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  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    We have more bad news on the horizon, and it won't just be Perth market that will be effected.
    Syd is already starting, people just ignoring it at the moment, 40% investors in this market APRA? Say no more.
     
  18. Oshawott

    Oshawott Well-Known Member

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    i thought banks are making it harder to borrow money....why do you say they will be eager to lend to you? are you thinking that the current strictness will pass in say 12 months time?
     
  19. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    In Perth, all of the markets I follow are going down still. :)

    Good for me, since I am looking to buy again next year.
     
  20. Jamie_

    Jamie_ Well-Known Member

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