How much growth left in current boom?

The current regional boom will run for decades as tens of thousands leave the capitals and overseas migrants choose to settle in the regions and embrace the new normal (WFH, ect) in the coming years too.

 

booms dont last for decades otherwise Syd median would be $10m and most people would be in top 1%, not so

Though in saying this regionals having a great run

 

Very tough to predict brisbane. Its a smaller city which can go either way quicker in shorter time periods.
I'd think ita got about a year left , but that's it and very low or moderate growth for years after that and will boom again a year or so before the Olympics. I'd say it will depend on jobs for Brisbane, especially the coveted high paying ones- we are seeing that now and in last 6 months which has played a big part in the current boom. If that slows (and it has to at some point), watch out as brisbane track record in past years shows.

 

Pre-COVID booms didn't last for decades.

The post-COVID regional boom...driven by the most dominant, sociocultural shift since the early 1900's...will surprise many though in terms of both it's magnitude and longevity.

So it's perfectly reasonable to assume the regional boom will run for the next 10-20 years.

 

Ok review this t

nope…. Not reasonable or logical unless you have a crystal ball.


Property Market Cycles in Australia | Canstar

 

Sydney

+ Apartment markets in good suburbs (CBD, North Shore and East) will experience serious growth due to returning Australians and immigrants in 2022, noting the NSW premier’s statement last week that he wants to a lot of skilled immigrants/investors moving to Australia. Due to cultural difference I’d expect a good percentage of immigrants buying into the apartment market.
+ Regional NSW (the pricier ones, like Moss Vale, Blue Mt etc.) would have a major correction by early 2023 and people realise that they paid way too much in 2021.
+ The boom in areas other than mentioned above would otherwise stop by Q1 2022 and a steady 2-5% growth every year (but no price correction thereafter).

Brisbane
+ Another 10% growth in Brisbane (within 15km from CBD) and 20% growth (within 15-25km from CBD) until the end of 2022.
+ People shifting attention to the GC resulting in consistent 10% growth until 2023.

 

* "will surprise many."

 

Ok, lets see

 

Regional will not boom for the next 20 years. No place in Australia has boomed for a 20 year period. It may have good growth over 20 years but it won't be booming non stop for that period. No chance in hell.

 

True, there are periods of over valuation and under valuation.

But there is never (I repeat never) a ceiling price for real estate - ie over time it will keep going up and up. And that is because there is no floor to the value of our currency. Ie the currency can halve and halve and halve and never go to zero, which will keep pushing prices up.

Currencies are designed to leak value in a process we call inflation. This means that prices will keep rising, but obviously not in a linear fashion.

The key message is: don't get caught out by thinking "this is the top". In a central banking fiat currency system, it is never the top of the market because there is no floor in the currency.

 

I know this

 

i doubt think any property market on earth has boomed for 10-20 years
to think that it will is incredibly naive

 

Some dwell in the past (retrospectively) whilst others embrace the future enthusiastically.

What has occurred over the past 20 years...people congregating in the capital cites...is unlikely to occur in the next 20 years.

Evolve or perish

 

Most people don't aspire to live regional. Travel yes. Holiday yes. Live? no. There are very good reasons for that. I anticipate this wont change much over the next 20 years. At least not to the extent where regionals will be in higher demand than most major cities.

Lets check back in 20

 

Melbourne definitely growth slowing down already. Just the vibe at auctions with no sense of urgency for B graders (A graders always go well regardless of market). Properties passing in at auctions and property selling for slightly higher than on the market . In really hot markets an auction one week would be surpassed in price by one next week. I would say the market looking ahead more likely to be single digit % growth (next 12 months) unless the fllood gates of migration are opened

 

There are many studies worldwide that point to cities expanding. If anyone has to lose in that, it will be regional.
Google it and you will find many respected think tanks, governments etc predicting this.
This informs government policies - this is one big reason in most cities such as Brisbane there is a lot of infrastructure being built, lots of inner city dwelling construction (the large companies that build these have spent big amounts of money with their research for this). They won't spend big bucks to build if they dont think there will be future demand.
This is also a worldwide trend..Australia is no different.

 

If those come true before 2024 - I would be over the moon.
I am never good at making prediction. But I do like the way you have put it.

 

Long long long run Sydney to Brisbane was Brisbane 70% of Sydney when I looked at some data a few years ago

 

Should be quite a bit of construction in the lead up to the Olympics not just one year in advance.

 

Regional towns are going to obtain most of the growth moving forward. Regional life is so under rated it's not funny.
I've spent 30 years in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.
It's not living when your stuck in traffic 10 hours a week.
Trying living in Mumbai and travelling 10kms. It will take you 3 hours.