How much growth left in current boom?

Hey guys,

What's your thoughts? I think another 20% in Melbourne and 25% in Brisbane (markets I am invested in).

Thanks

 

Depends on where in Melbourne and Brisbane.
You have ask a very tough question, I don't think anyone have a crystal ball that can answer it.

 

Melbourne - 15 to 20km ring - 20%
Brisbane - 10 to 15km ring - 25%

Of course, no one knows, just a little game

 

I doubt you will achieve 20% for Melbourne at that distance next year.
I doubt you will achieve 25% for Brisbane at that distance too.

That is my guess.. Take 2021 whole year gain divide by 2.
That is probably the best case for 2022.

 

I would love to see 25% gain but I doubt it. I believe regulators will put more restrictions if the growth are similar to 2021. Best case is actually lower growth like 8-10% annualised and under radar of more intervention.

 

I think another 18-20% in Perth, I think at least another 2 years
Yes Perth is flying under the radar on PC, but many from east buying up

 

I can’t speak for Melbourne but I think your on the money with Brisbane - $800k+ Median within the next 12-24 months.

North - Stafford/kedron etc $1.2m
North west - Everton park $1m
South - MG/MGE $1.2m
South- Holland park $1.3m
East- Hawthorne $2m

I believe Hawthorne/bulimba will be the stand out, Hawthorne was $1.1m house median last year. Now nearly 1.7m - if it hits a little over $2m that’s a double within 2-3 years if you picked it correctly

 

I reckon....another 40%...in the next 3 years...

 

It would not surprise me at all

We must review this thread in 12 months.

Its all coming low base and its blue chip, red chip, green chip….. its everywhere

 

I don't think I'll ever buy in Pert. Just not a fan of the mining dependence..

 

fair enough
I have invested in 4 states in oz over many years …NZ and USA
Most important element is the cycles. Downturns will always happen and east coast is not bullet proof

Brissy took years to boom, its been in the doldrums for years same as Perth
Gold Coast units I believe dropped 40% last down turn cycle

I am concerned about Syd/melb
Melb rents lowest in Oz, what does this tell u??? Over supply. Scary stuff

anywhoo……

 

Sydney growth is purely driven by low interest rates and WFH (people wanting bigger lifestyle houses). It will slow down in few months.

Brisbane growth is driven both by low interest rates as well as ‘long awaited catch up’ with Sydney. Brisbane won’t stop until a typical Brisbane property comes up to 70-80% of a comparable Sydney property. Currently a house 5km from Brisbane CBD is priced same as same house 40km from Sydney CBD so Brisbane has a very long way to go. My prediction on Brisbane is that after growing 60-70% in 2021-22, it will continue to post 10%+ growth for next 4-5 years at least.

 

I’m hoping for 10% pa for Mt Druitt for the next few years. Probably till the new airport is built.

Come fly with me, let’s fly away.

 

@datto the poet. Who knew.

 

Its global …. Right…. Everyones printing money and low interest rate environment…. Buck will eventually stop

make hay while the sun shines

 

Isn’t that the point though MTR? Huge amounts of QE/printing money, causing asset inflation it quickly becomes the new normal? You can’t pull it back out or “stop the music” if it’s catching up.

it’s essentially catching up to the new normal, it won’t go backwards as it’s not inflated. It’s literally the devaluation of money, how do you take that back?? @John_BridgeToBricks knows more about this

 

For the lucky ones who got timing right you are already in front……

perhaps You should take some profits where you can, and either reinvest if you are feeling lucky or reduce debt. Smart savvy investors will work out how to mitigate risk

shuffling deck chairs on the titanic

 

This is often the case. Switched on investors buy well. Sell well. Hold well. Buy well again and so on.

There is this crazy assumption that you can build large amounts or wealth in real estate without learning all aspects of the craft well. This is just untrue for most people.

The people I know who really clean up in resi real estate have spent a lot of effort to learn their game. From finance strategies to portfolio structuring to identifying value in markets to negotiating tactics and ultimately value adding.


Most combine the investment aspect (buying the asset) with the business potential (adding value).


The game certainly isn't equal for all. That's why opportunities exist to buy well. Sell well. Reduce risk. Add value to multiply profits etc during all the stages of cycles.

 

Are they building a runway on top of the westfield ?

 

This is the most fascinating question and not one covered very much, when to sell. Everyone wants the top, but more likely is to take the chunk in the middle of the growth cycle.

I lived and invested in Perth from 1998-2006. When it went from boom to bust it was pretty sudden. I had a place I bought for $125k, and it went up to $375k pretty quick. 40 folks at home opens, dutch auctions happening.....good times. When you are in the middle of a boom, it starts to not feel like a boom, but just feel like this is...........normal.

When it turned, it turned quick. I tried to sell for $375k, got a reluctant $320k. I went to a home open to see the vide out there, and walked into an empty house. The agent was sitting on the couch and I gave him a fright as he sprung to his feet and straightened his tie.

We had a chat about how quickly things had changed from the chaos a few months back.

Nice bloke.