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How Many Property Cycles Have You Invested Through..

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by willair, 26th Jul, 2015.

  1. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Very simple question, myself I have seen about 4 cycles over a 30 year period the big one was when the 1982 Commonwealth Games was held in Brisbane between September till October 1982,that's when the upswing started ,and went on for several years after even during the period
    July 1985 when Keating--Hawke government quarantined negative gearing interest expenses that may have slowed the process down but prices still went up,then about 1990 the #### hit the high speed fan,and inbetween the next 7-8 years property % wise went nowhere,a lot of investors went on the BBQ Plate,some properties went down over 40% some stayed the same but prices just flat-lined ,then about 1997 the turbines too power started again,2001 came and the same fan switched on again only this time it hit all investments markets from useless over-valued tech stocks to startups that never understood what happens when the Bull and the Bear and Mrs Market all just sat on the sidelines stunned..2years on the Bull came out again and run with the herd,2008 the high speed fan again 2010 the turbines to power again,only this time in a few areas it has gone beyond any recognisable harmony to be logical ,just keep it in the back of your mind,downturns happen in the equities markets very very quickly the pain happens overnight..

    Property is a whole different market like trying to turn a fully loaded iorn ore supply ship it takes time too turn the ship around the behaviour of a Bull and Bear markets are quite predictable but the ones in between in the middle get trampled on,no in-betweens..
     
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  2. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Saw the affects of 1 cycle in 1988-1990....but did not invest. Have been through 3 cycles in 25 years.
     
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  3. Honeydew

    Honeydew Well-Known Member

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    Hi Willair, this is a great post and thanks for sharing the real life wisdom! I've only seen the boom in Melbourne in the early 2000's but was too young with no knowledge and money to invest in anything and the current Sydney boom which I've only got a small dip of... would and should have bought more back in 2012 had I knew about the cycle back then....

    So, a summary of what you wrote, the below periods were when you saw Brisbane market boomed ? You mentioned 4 cycles but I could only pick out 3 periods, is there one I've missed out ?
    1982-1985
    1997-2001
    2008-2009
     
  4. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    The big one for us was between about 1990 up till about late 1997,it just went nowhere but that was only the areas we had invested in ,I know people that took the punt in 1995 and just going by what someone had paid in 1990 some of those properties went down over 60-70k and very hard to sell unlike today in a few Australian seaboard locations..
     
  5. Honeydew

    Honeydew Well-Known Member

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    7 years boom ???!!! that is a very long boom :)

    Was it triggered by anything else other than the dip in interest rate going from the 2 digits down to much lower ?

    Do you know what years did Sydney or other states boom in the 90's ?
     
  6. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Sorry no ,that's when property for us went nowhere just sideways,interest rates are the main key that and the media ,it's just a total different outlook today every property we have ever bought has been when they sit there for over six months ,the media burns the same story every week and the market itself talks itself down,.
     
  7. Honeydew

    Honeydew Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone on this forum know over the past few decades the years of the real estate cycles of the various states in Australia ?

    Please share :)
     
  8. Honeydew

    Honeydew Well-Known Member

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    Oh I see, a while back I was quite curious why properties in Brisbane were actually booming during 2007-2008 when interest rate was actually rising ...was this just a mini boom ?

    property prices were quite flat in Sydney during this time I think ...


     
  9. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    This will be my first. I was at school during the last one at around the turn of the century. At the time I said "I wish I had the money to buy a house". Now that I am in a position to jump in no way I'm sitting on the sidelines.
     
  10. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    It was weird yeah. It boomed around the same time as Sydney, late 90's till around early 2002-2003. Not sure why 4-5 years later there was another uptick. Interest rates were high too, it was around 8-9% during our first purchase in '07. Can't believe we locked it in just under 9%. Ouch. I guess at that point the mining boom was in full swing and QLD did benefit a lot from it. And also it was probably just residual increases from the last boom. At that time the differential between Sydney was still huge, a house in Sydney was like a whopping 700k while I'm Brisbane it was like 250-300k, so something had to give.
     
  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Purchased in late 80s primary residence, but did not follow cycles at this point in time.

    Started investing in 2001

    Boom cycles
    Perth 2001-2006
    Melb 2008
    USA Atlanta. - 2011
    Sydney 2012 still going
    Perth. 2013 - late 2014
    Melb. 2013 sill going

    MTR:)
     
  12. Honeydew

    Honeydew Well-Known Member

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    I feel your pain.... got my 1st purchase in 2008 and locked in interest rate at 8.04% for 4 years!!!!:(
    ah well time does heal the damage as the equity growth has iron out any losses plus more so it's ok so far :) awaiting the upcoming boom ....

    It's interesting you mentioned the large differential between Sydney (700k) & Bris (250k-300k) in 2007-2008 period. What areas were you referring to and the type of RE? Is it inner Brisbane house on land ?


     
    Last edited: 26th Jul, 2015
  13. Honeydew

    Honeydew Well-Known Member

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    Hi MTR, you've been through many booms, when do you think the Perth market will rise again ?

     
  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Perth recently experienced a boom/rising market but short period, however top end $1.5m+ has remained flat
    As mining has gone south, we may be a few years away, I don't want generalize as I think there may be some markets that will do better and than others. For me it's sit and watch.

    I have read a number of property reports where south west of WA mentioned as one of the hot spots for growth ? Not seeing this the moment

    MTR:)
     
  15. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Too young to invest in the 80's but I remember my parents house for doubling in value in Brisbane between 87 and 89.
    Started investing in the mid 90's but only slowly.
    Caught the 02-03 boom in BN where prices doubled.
    Had plently of exposure in 2006-7 when Bn grew strongly. Regional Qld also boomed 02-03 and then grew well 05-07.
     
  16. Peter_Tersteeg

    Peter_Tersteeg Finance broker and strategist Business Member

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    I started investing in the late 90s.

    Hard to say how many cycles that is. It could be argued that we've seen 2 cycles in some areas since the GFC.
     
    Last edited: 26th Jul, 2015
  17. Beelzebub

    Beelzebub Well-Known Member

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    I aint seen nothin and I have no idea what I'm doing.
     
  18. Ace in the Hole

    Ace in the Hole Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    We caught the last couple years of the Sydney boom ending in 2003 with a sole PPOR.
    Since then, it's only been the current Sydney boom and waiting for Brisbane to move next.
     
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  19. chindonly

    chindonly Well-Known Member

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    Someone asked about past cycles in Brisbane:
    [​IMG]

    The lull over the last few years I feel has led to the price differential relative to southern states to get too large. Could mean Brisbane could do well over the next few years, as long as there are jobs to keep thinks ticking.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Peter
    Definitely 2 since GFC.
    Melb boomed during GFC while Keen was begging people not to buy, yes this one slipped under his nose:), started in the inner city and then the ripple effect, and current boom cycle with most growth in East
     
    Last edited: 28th Jul, 2015