How many more years of pain for the Perth market?

you know what the best source is ..... very simple volume, how much stock vs how many sales, product, days on the market.. any real estate agent can provide this data for specific suburbs. You cant fudge the numbers it is what it is.

Once you have this look at the median sales between 2013-2014 for similar product, I bet this will tell you that todays prices are much lower??

MTR

 

All information usually has some bias, just different angles and some are more overtly bias than others. Yes, the article clearly has a bias but I posted it because if I was looking at the Perth market now, I would be happy to read the artlce and see what I can glean from it. Maybe an interesting suburb mentioned to do further DD. Maybe a strategy for a particular market mentioned. Yes the article will have its angle but it doesn't mean you can't pick bits and pieces you find may have merit and then do your own DD.

I have extrapolated some very useful information to get some great deals in the past from sources which have tremendous bias and questionable scenarios, like the property magazines, free seminars etc. Just take what you like and discard the rest.

 

very nice project. lovely looking design

 

I didn't read the article as being put forward as some kind of proof. It was simply a link. You did the rest.

Maybe if it was accompanied by some text like "omg! Buy Perth!", you might have a point. Without any commentary, it was simply a link and nothing more.

 

This is her other project, I also posted will be completed shortly. Basically most of these apartments have city views, due to the rear drop.. I really love the elevation on this project as well and designs. Pretty much high spec

181 Walcott street Mount Lawley WA 6050 - Apartment for Sale #126134378 - realestate.com.au

 

Fair enough. I wonder how many people read it and just go with it as truth, but you're right that that doesn't necessarily reflect your opinion or that there is nothing useful or salvageable in there to look further into.

Agreed. Maybe I got up on the wrong side of the bed. My bad.

 

Agree mate and I think some may do that. At the end of the day though people need to be responsible for their own actions.

 

Sorry if it wasn't clear, the rental price currently on both properties is slightly under what comparable properties are asking in those areas. The 3x1 Vic Pk house is priced around the same as 3 x 1 villas in that area. As for your other point about the stats, it is not a question of disputing the stats but rather the interpretation of them.

Yes the amount of rental properties on the market has fallen but likely so too has demand, netting each other off. Supply can fall from landlords taking their property off the market or selling it off. As for demand, there has not been much growth in Perth's population and many potential renters have purchased new apartments that have flooded the market.

That is what I think anyway until I see some stats showing significant improvements in the time a rental is actually on the market.

 

My christal ball said interest rates will rise. It also said that unlikely Pert will go up anytime in next 4 years. Also unlikely to go down anymore.


No advice. I’m hungry.

 

Absolutely, likewise with the sales market. I too have wondered why there seems to be an insistence on defending a predisposed opinion re the market rather than simply looking at the facts

 

You may be getting frustrated but that's an issue of yours and your understanding of the market, not of the article.

For example, I have posted repeatedly over last 12 months or so, including with some examples, very similar sentiments to this paragraph because it's true and anyone denying the accuracy of the clqim below re western suburbs is quite simply wrong

"Yes, Perth’s median price was down overall, but there are areas in Perth, notably highly sought after areas such as the Western suburbs near Cottesloe and Floreat, where stock is low, competition is fierce and prices have consequently risen. What is dragging Perth down are under performing areas on the urban fringe that suffered most from the oversupply of stock coming onto the market in 2014 and 2015.” Mr Strickland explained."


"

 

Yes I've seen your posts and agree with you. I wasn't criticising the idea that the Perth market is turning around, I was criticising the source. How much weight can you put on a Perth property purchasing agency saying you should buy property in Perth.

 

This quote in itself is telling. It's basically saying that certain areas are dragging Perth down as a whole...but why does that even need to be a comparison any more than comparing Campbelltown to Camperdown in Sydney or Redcliffe to Windsor in Brisbane? All it shows is that there are different markets everywhere and looking at a geographical space as a single market is incorrect.

Regarding the article as a whole, I can see both your points. It is a sponsored article so there are no other BAs sourced for info and of course the information presented is to entice people to use their company for purchasing. At the same time, they haven't just talked about boom times and said that Perth is marching up, somewhat acknowledging it's only starting recovery. Just take it for what it is and keep reading.

I would never, ever invest on the basis of what I read in any article, regardless of its source because I know exactly how these articles are sourced and written - I've been sources for them before! Am I saying don't listen to me (ha!)? No, but you can't paint a picture using only a few strokes. Technical and fundamental analysis off your own bat is the only way to go, unless you pay for independent advice and guidance. Right now, I do know that BAs are reporting signs of recovery and the BA I've been working with in Perth is making some headway compared to this time last year.

Whichever way you look at it, I think it's fair to say that if you're planning to buy in Perth at some stage, it's time to start getting your ducks in a row at the very least.

 

Price rarely stay at the bottom for that long unless the nothing improves. With improvements in job conditions, vacancy rates and population growth it will maximum another year before prices going up steadily and return to the 2013-14 level in 2-3 years time and a boom in 5-7 years time when supply dries up and economy continue to improve. I think i am being realistic as people are often too pessimistic during downturns and too optimistic during the good times.

 

This reminds me of one the Brissy threads.... we will probably be discussing why Perth is about to boom.... for another 12-18 months or more.??

 

I really don't think its going to boom in the short term but a slow recovery like Brissy in the last 3-4 years is a strong possibility.

 

Big difference between Perth and Brissy is that developers haven't been active in the last few years. Even despite the low population growth (which, like QLD are a temporary effect of economic shifts), stock is still falling at a country-leading rate. The strength of the recovery is going to be very dependent on how long developers hold out. Like the 2000's, constrained stock meant rapid price rises even in the face of rising rates.

And even though there have been some big acquisitions in Perth lately, dwelling approvals are still not showing signs of a turnaround. the longer it holds off, the higher it will bounce when it comes back.

 

Not sure what you mean???

why have developers not been active in Perth market???

Brissy in different stage of cycle to Perth


MTR

 

Has Brissy recovered????
Its a fragmented market, oversupply of units/apartments has impacted on this market, according to Matusik

 

the house market has well exceeded its previous peak and about 20-30% from 2012 when it bottomed out. If you don't believe me, just check realestate.com.au/invest on any random Brissy metro suburbs.