How many more years of pain for the Perth market?

Stop talking in circles


Simple question, are things better or worse today in WA economically vs a year ago?

If you cannot answer yes then there is something wrong with you

 

That's fine, you're entitled to that opinion, what you aren't entitled to is your own facts

 

That sounds very plausible. I think the issue with WA is that it’s a very concentrated economy. There needs to be more diversification in order to be more stable.

All eggs are in one basket, mining basket.

 

It's a FACT that Perth doesn't have the desired X-Factor.

 

Here's the recent market pricing of interest rates-
ASX - Website Maintenance (currently "under maintenance" but check it again).

Two rate hikes in next 18 months, if inflation picks up and employment growth strenghens. These market punters are usually very good at predicting rates, they've predicted the rate hikes/cuts in recent cycles.

Not a good thing for the entire property market, especially those that are struggling.

 

Why are you comparing a year ago? LOL you should compare to when you entered the market, not a year ago. Yes, it's marginally better than a year ago, small drop in unemployment and small increase in capex. Not enough to convince me.

 

Similar to many WA IP investors. All eggs in one basket, the WA basket case.

 

I don't need to convince you, you're either a troll or a simpleton, welcome to the ignore list

 

Can I convince you that I am simpleton?

That is the ultimate compliment someun can give...me.

How are your developments goin' are you still in Perth or have you moved to greener pastures.

 

Tee-Hee

someone can't take criticism and can't accept reality.

 

Tee-Hee??
I’m going for troll

 

Reading about the Melbourne market and saw that there are many suburbs with 10% + of average annual growth over the last 10 years. Has Perth ever see this kind of growth during the boom?

 

Perth crushed it so hard during 2001-2008 that you would have thought Melbourne was a regional town in comparison. I'm not exaggerating either.
The current cycle for Sydney/Brisbane/Perth is over 15 years (if you exclude the weird mini spike of Perth in 2012-2013), so looking at the past 10 years becomes meaningless. Take a 17-20 year look as a minimum.
Melbourne had it's own mini 1 year spike (25%) in 2011 but besides the year before and 2 years following, Melbourne has been unusually steady and consistent in growth so it is quite difficult to see how it follows the normal cycle pattern of boom, bust, slump. Although the current boom is much bigger and longer so I can't see how it won't correct shortly by a more normal slump (lots of flat years) the way all the other states have after their bigger longer booms. As a general rule, the bigger and longer the boom, the longer the slump, which is why Perth is roughly at 2008 prices, because the pre 2008 boom was so massive that it needed this many years to correct (and then over/under correct as is the normal way).

 

Do you know where i can find 20 year stats?

 

You are definitely not exaggerating. I tried to buy my first IP in Perth in 2007. Prices at that time were way out of my league. I could not believe how cheap property was when I got to Melbourne. I picked up a development site about 13km from the CBD for $385,000. It seems ridiculous now, with similar properties in the area selling for around $900k.

 

I would like to. This is the best I can find:

https://reiwa.com.au/uploadedfiles/public/content/the_wa_market/house-prices-2013-web.pdf

 

Something a bit older

https://www.investorassist.com.au/s...cle-files/Four Perth Property Maps 261012.pdf

 

There are a couple of replies in this thread.
One is from 1973-2003.
The other 2000-2015 (was done part way through 2016, so 2016 figures are way too low to be correct)
Percent Median Difference Between Capitals

 

I believe we are going to start to see some green shoots as we progress this year. Definitely not everywhere but certain suburbs. With rental vacancy dropping from 7.1% down to 5.8% it may still be a higher than comfortable vacancy rate but if we see that drop again this quarter there will definitely be pressure put on rental prices. Again, not all but the more favourable.

As any investor would know that you can never treat a market as a whole, saying "The Perth Market" is very broad as there are certain pockets of Perth that have closer to the ideal 3% vacancy rate and others with closer to 10%.

My tenant in my 4x1 Heathridge property emailed last week letting me know they are vacating as they have purchased a property. Have been a great tenant for 18 months. That property Vals at approx $520-$530k. Was rented 3 years ago @ $500pw, recent tenant we dropped to $460 but based on what is available now in the area there is next to nothing with the features my property has. I will be advertising back at $500 pw and may look to accept $480 for the right tenant.

There is plenty of money to be made throughout Perth, short and long term projects. A lot of development sites offering easy 12-15% gains just from a simple Demo and sub divide without even building.

I work in New Home sales and we are now finding we are needing to purchase more untitled stock for clients as land sales have picked up where 6-12 months ago we could buy pretty much anything ready to build on.

Definitely not major shifts and any body who says its going to boom again is BS'n, but I'm very confident in a busier year this year

 

Hey Buddy, Great information and makes sense. Just wondering, when you say cycles are 15 years, do you mean that roughly 15 years or so from 2001 (when Perth Boom started - and discounting this weird mini-boom thing) is when Perth should have gone full cycle, that is back to the bottom before another boom. Realise that would be 2016 so we're past that but can't set your watch by these things. My interest is that I'm planning to buy another property and Perth is the place that takes my fancy for various reasons. My timeframe is roughly 10 years or so don't mind nothing happening for a while, as long as it comes out peachy in a decade or so I'll be happy. Cheers.