How many (if any) rate rises do you predict for 2022.

Oh goody...worms...ya mean Tequila?

Get limes and salt out.....patrona.....

 

@Sackie I almost forgot-$100 to Animals Asia please. I matched your donation. Long suffering bears thank the RBA.

 

I originally had selected 2 rate rises.

6+ looks to be the winner now.

 

@George Smiley I too totally forgot! Thanks for matching my donation mate, what a champ! It's for a great cause. By far the best thing that came out of this thread was the $300 to charity.

 

From Chris Joye
Wiping $1.5 trillion off house prices will force RBA to pause after 100-150 basis points of rate hikes

posted on the other thread around Sydney, but probably more relevant in this thread

 

Well this now is the 64k question . Can it be paused at 1 to 1.5% if us rates hit 2.5%

Because our currency would fall which in itself will be inflationary. Thus why the need to watch the Fed.

Lot of people on here including some people who worked for treasury did not think of these large moves. Let's see....

 

Chris is a smart guy. He predicted the last boom. I'd put my money on him.

 

May be the smartest we have got when it comes to risk projections.
If you are interested in bond markets and global macro, he appears on coolabah's podcast "Complexity premia". Half of it is CJ bragging about his past projections but rest is worth it.

 

RBA contemplated larger cash rate hike

 

looks like we are going to see 2% cash rate by Christmas for sure.

 

In an ideal world the threat of cash rate hikes will provide enough of a decrease in demand to get the job done. We just need the RBA to find an excuse bit to keep pulling the trigger without touching it's already tatty credibility.

In the other hand, everything I read points to more supply issues. It's not impossible that the RBA may need to make all of us very very poor to stop inflation.

 

In an ideal world, interest rates would be set by the market, and not be subject to the erratic whims of central bankers.

 

It quite amazing,
In last six months RBA has gone from declaring "No IR hike till 2024"
to cozying up to the idea of 7 back to back IR hikes by dec.

 

How would you fight someone with printing press in the basement?
QE after QE, is there really an end to this insanity?

 

Europe and the USA have been dealing with this problem since the GFC. In the short term any easing of QE is contractionary, which shrinks the economy and increases unemployment. Politicians don't want to be responsible for poor economic performance and citizens don't want to take the medicine of cutbacks and budgetary restraint, which would lead to reduced services and lower pensions etc. I can't see an end to this anytime soon!

 

Yep,
I was mostly referring to FED and ECB earlier,

Let see how our QT goes next year when RBA asks banks to pay back TFF.
or may be RBA just kicks the can further, as buzz lightyear would say.... to infinity and beyond

 

The RBA is utterly clueless

 

This thread didnt age well

 

More than 60% (myself included) said 2 or less. Likely by years end will be more than 70% guessed wrong.

 

This comment aged well. I was out by 3 months but the sequencing is correct.