How many (if any) rate rises do you predict for 2022.

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Sackie, 13th Jan, 2022.

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How many rate rises do you predict for 2022?

Poll closed 17th Feb, 2023.
  1. 0

    54 vote(s)
    19.6%
  2. 1

    46 vote(s)
    16.7%
  3. 2

    73 vote(s)
    26.5%
  4. 3

    47 vote(s)
    17.1%
  5. 4

    24 vote(s)
    8.7%
  6. 5

    5 vote(s)
    1.8%
  7. 6

    12 vote(s)
    4.4%
  8. The more the better! I got all my money in the bank!

    14 vote(s)
    5.1%
  1. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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  2. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    From may19 till dec21, Sydney witnessed a RBA pumped BC driven 45%+ house price rise,
    TFF sponsored $500bn cheap fixed loans are due probably at peak of inflation in 2023 creating potential systemic risk,
    was this a prudent policy?
    Would we be better off by applying macro prudential DTI restriction and cut cash rate to zero thereby reducing household debts instead of dramatically boosting it?
     
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  3. Mr Burns

    Mr Burns Well-Known Member

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    US hiked 0.5 today and said more like this are to come.

    RBA said in total they expect 2.5% here. That's a 35% increase in mortgage repayments from last months low.
     
  4. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    The fed hiked 0.5, yet shares jumped and the usd fell.
     
  5. frankjeager

    frankjeager Well-Known Member

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    lol wtf
     
  6. Mr Burns

    Mr Burns Well-Known Member

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    the market was expecting 0.75%
     
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  7. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    That means 40 basis points almost a 80% certainty. Stay of execution if wages growth lower than 3%

    Chinese will be super nervous at this rapid increase. It will start destroying their economy.
     
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  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    … and US housing markets still soaring
     
  9. Mr Burns

    Mr Burns Well-Known Member

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    Is it common for people to fix their mortgage in the US for 15-30 years?
     
  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    yes
    Buyers can lock in low rates for 30 year loans. We dont have this luxury in Oz
     
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  11. Mr Burns

    Mr Burns Well-Known Member

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    Then the US won't have the same problems as us with low fixed mortgages rolling over to variable in the next year or two.
     
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  12. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    In US Can also sell property using 1032 form and as long as sale proceeds are used to buy another property there will be no capital gains tax. Used this myself, wish we had this in Oz. Also no stamp duty
     
  13. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    ....UKI nth nsw ....
  14. Dmash

    Dmash Well-Known Member

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    New mortgage enquiries &builds have absolutely plummeted over the last 3 months. Expect that data to flow through in prices over the next 3-6 months
     
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  15. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    in Oz or USA?
    This is what is happening in US. There is low/no inventory

    i have been riding this US housing boom since 2011. It makes our booms look like a pimple on a mountain in comparison


    Opinion: Housing prices are still surging, but a bubble doesn't seem likely
     
  16. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    That is correct - Australia housing boom is nothing compare to the USA.
    Their system is crazy in overdrive. But also coming from a lower base and their system is very broad and less regulated.
    If you have a pulse, the bank will give you a loan.
    In Aus, they want to know how much you spend on Netflix and how many Uber eat you do a week.
     
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  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Foreigners can even source loans, low rates, equity loans, 30 year loans…..which means no financials. Similar to low docs/no docs.
     
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  18. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    So the RBA is expecting the average mortgage holder in Sydney to fork out an additional 12k more in just a few years(keep in mind this is cumulative value so the burden already started).
    That is and additional 12k of AFTER TAX money. They will need to earn much more than that to get to that figure.

    Granted this would be mostly last few years buyers but even so, half that mortgage figure to include most mortgagees and that still looks terribly unrealistic. That would absolutely crush the economy.

    Keep in mind, this is the same RBA that told us rates will most probably not rise before 2024. They are dreaming.

    Higher interest rates likely to add further downwards pressure on housing growth rates

    Screenshot - 2022-05-05T091504.160.png
     
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  19. Onlinedave

    Onlinedave Well-Known Member

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    I think that’s the point. They hope inflation slows before rates hit crash level, but as the Fed essentially said last night too, their primary job is inflation. They really hope to avoid a recession, but their job is inflation.
    Seatbelts recommended.
     
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  20. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Spot on add to that IO loans going pI which adds another 40% to loan in repayments it gets interesting.

    Some people had a go at me about the IO cliff well it is still there just that they kicked the can down the road.

    Some people are about to learn a life lesson. Some people borrowed with people like bluestone and liberty. Watch how much more their rates head up.
     
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