How many (if any) rate rises do you predict for 2022.

RBA rate rises, to be clear.


I say none.


Have your say.

 

I am hoping for none

 

I'm always planning for a couple....
But that's because my record trying to predict this stuff is terrible.

I'm just rolling with ye olde "Plan for the worst, hope for the best"....

 

If america raises rates 2-3 time this year, as their board has already communicated, and our RBA does nothing, our dollar will plummet to low 60s id say

 

COVID will continue to weigh on the economy for a while yet.

So the RBA definitely won't hike in 2022.

And the RBA wants a lower AUD too. So it won't be concerned at all if the US Fed raises rates this year.

 

None.

 

Probably none, but I'm hoping for two. In the long run a rate rise or two will be better for everyone.

 

None is my vote from RBA.
But the big 4 banks have already jump ahead and per-emptive on their rates increase.

 

Zero to one rise to me (Nov meeting at earliest). However there is more chance that banks will raise their own rate before RBA due to funding cost increase when overseas markets raise their rates.

 

3 or possibly 4 from the federal reserve. RBA would be at pains to lift as so much of the country has taken them at their word that they won’t lift until 2024.
We saw last year though that the RBA changed their stance on tapering QE earlier than expected. Changes in macro policy are to be expected when inflation is developing and nobody should be making investment decisions based on 2 year promises by a central bank.

Having said that the RBA cash rate largely has little impact on our banks funding rates. With the TFF closing late last year Aus now acquires wholesale cash from all corners of the globe and once the US lifts you will see variables follow here. This will hit the pockets of borrowers and prospective buyers this year no doubt.

79% chance the fed lifts in May, wage growth in Aus still low, immigration flat.
Smart money is being taken off the table..

 

Our dollar would actually strengthen mate. The issue with that is that our exports become a hell of a lot more expensive and less attractive.

RBA have been forced to paint themselves into a corner due to our governments poor economic management.

 

I voted one. It will be late 2022 if it does happen.

 

Smart money have taken off the table towards the tech growth sectors with high PE.
They are rotating into the safer asset class that gives income and real yield. Utilities, telcom and etc.
Our funding will be affected when US rate rise, especially the variable rates.
I have seen fix rates rise quicker than variable rates.

 

I voted -- the more the better,I have all the.money invested in several banks..
However if the past is any guide ,it is likely that we will see 2 this year as the future can't be predicted.

 

That’s right. A cyclical rotation into value is happening in equities right now. Sydney and Melb property has always been priced on potential capital gains rather than for its yield. With the availability of cash set to decrease the potential for capital gains decreases and you will hopefully see consistent wage growth and ensuing yield increases.

Fixed rates in my opinion always proceed what variable will do by 6 months....

 

No cash rate rises in 2022, but variable rates will creep up slightly in my view.

Expecting 3 interest rate rises in 2023

 

I was thinking about that too but i think that if the US raises their rates as expected and assuming the RBA doesn't and the banks start raising their rates due to overseas funding costs getting higher, the government will have another TFF(Term Funding facility) like they did before which would replace all the expensive overseas funding with cheap local government money.

 

RBA 90%........likely...NO interest rises.

Banks raising variable rates to recover margin 10-25 basis points (0.1% to 025%).

Fixed rates - 2,3 year rates will be higher than variable rates by year end. Maybe even 1year rate...at that point 90% sure of an interest hike!

 

My crystal ball: RBA none. Banks will cause of overseas funding. Then RBA will play catchup and over hike.