How high will our unemployment rate go?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by TMNT, 23rd Mar, 2020.

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How high will our unemployment rate go?

  1. 5%-8%

    4 vote(s)
    2.5%
  2. 9%-12%

    52 vote(s)
    32.3%
  3. 13%-16%

    49 vote(s)
    30.4%
  4. 17%-20%

    34 vote(s)
    21.1%
  5. 21%-24%

    7 vote(s)
    4.3%
  6. 25%-28%

    4 vote(s)
    2.5%
  7. 29%+

    11 vote(s)
    6.8%
  1. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    The UK has been in debt for over 300 years now. :cool:

    Go figure. #KeepBorrowingAndCarryOn
     
  2. bumskins

    bumskins Well-Known Member

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    It's companies balance sheets I would be worried about. A lot are going to come with increased debt & reduced revenue.
     
    Primary341 likes this.
  3. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Are you sure?

    This summarises my understanding:

    “... so now, central banks can increase the amount of money in circulation by simply printing it. They can print as much money as they want, though there are consequences for doing so. Merely printing more money doesn’t affect the economic output or production levels, so the money itself becomes less valuable. Since this can cause inflation, simply printing more money isn't the first choice of central banks.”
    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/053115/how-central-banks-control-supply-money.asp

    I
    know Governments want to increase inflation but I am sure they don’t want it to go “to infinity”.
     
  4. Big Lez

    Big Lez Well-Known Member

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    This is just my opinion as someone who works in construction (mostly residential). A lot of people in the construction industry are already feeling the pinch. Where I work, I find have noticed a lot of new projects we were supposed to start in April have been postponed. The only work that is going on at the moment are projects that are still under construction. Once those projects are completed, I reckon there will be a lot of job losses.
     
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  5. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    A lot of experts quoting unemployment to be sub 10% from A few reports I've read
     
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  6. frankjeager

    frankjeager Well-Known Member

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    so apparently the march figure is 5.2%

    didnt expect that
     
  7. Melbourne_guy

    Melbourne_guy Well-Known Member

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    Does it include those claiming 'Jobkeeper' allowance or the many new claimants who are awaiting their application to be processed? I suspect not if those Centrelink lines are anything to go by. That unemployment figure has barely moved since the previous month.
     
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  8. frankjeager

    frankjeager Well-Known Member

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    im not sure whats included, i just know that that is the reported number
     
  9. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

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    Definitely not!
    Probably, however it does not include the scores of people that have been unable to put their claims in over the phone/online/in person, due to the congestion.
     
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  10. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    The unemployment figures are derived from the ABS survey, which had to be completed by March 12. It was later in March that the government imposed lock downs so the figures will probably be more reflective in the next survey, which won't be until May.

    Edit- I was still expecting the unemployment figure to be higher though.
     
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  11. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    Yeah unfortunate timing but what can you do.

    In addition, people on JobKeeper will be classified as employed. So that's a huge number of people that will have questionable employment but not really show up in the figures.
     
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  12. mickyyyy

    mickyyyy Well-Known Member

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    Could be in the early 7% range when they announce numbers next month
     
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  13. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    If Jobkeeper numbers were rolled in its about 18-20 % actual.
     
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  14. mickyyyy

    mickyyyy Well-Known Member

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    You mean Job seeker & Job keeper?
     
  15. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    Jobkeeker

    Jobseeker is already in the rate (I think)
     
  16. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Not all people on Jobkeeper would have lost work though. My employer got me to fill in the Jobkeeper form but I think my own hours wouldn't be cut due to the nature of work I do.

    But in any case, I am grateful for Jobkeeper support for my employer.
    My Employer's business is VERY affected by the restrictions, unfortunately there have been significant job losses in the company due to Covid. I can't see this Covid lead downturn changing for the positive my Employer until international travel opens back up.
     
    Last edited: 11th May, 2020
  17. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    April figures came out today.

    Australia's unemployment is up to 6.2%. In April 2020, all states and territories recorded decreases in employment. The largest decreases in employment were recorded in New South Wales (down 221,400 people). Unemployment rates increased in all states and territories. The largest increases were 1.3 pts in Tasmania (up to 6.2%), 1.2 pts in Queensland (up to 6.8%), and 1.1 pts in New South Wales (up to 6.0%). The largest participation rate decreases were 2.8 pts in both New South Wales (down to 62.6%) and Western Australia (down to 65.2%).
     
  18. Foxdan

    Foxdan Well-Known Member

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    When jobkeeper ends, the true damage will be revealed.
    1. All businesses that can’t keep staff will terminate them once jobkeeper nearly up and use jobkeeper to pay out any retrenchment periods.
    2. Many businesses will choose to fold when jobkeeper is up if they cannot continue without it
    3. Many businesses will simplify their businesses and lay off staff that are in areas not profitable enough to warrant the risk going forward.

    I know many small business owners and they are all considering some or all of the above options.

    I have no doubt that the end of September will have mass unemployment and the true damage will become apparent.
     
  19. Biggbird

    Biggbird Well-Known Member

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    Labour force participation rate down about 3% too, meaning the actual figure is underreported it seems (as well as Jobkeeper distorting things, of course).
     
  20. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    That's when property prices will be falling quicker as first home buyers and rent-vestors who lose their jobs have no choice but to sell up and move back home with their parents. Big real life "stress test" coming for our banks.