How high will our unemployment rate go?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by TMNT, 23rd Mar, 2020.

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How high will our unemployment rate go?

  1. 5%-8%

    4 vote(s)
    2.5%
  2. 9%-12%

    52 vote(s)
    32.3%
  3. 13%-16%

    49 vote(s)
    30.4%
  4. 17%-20%

    34 vote(s)
    21.1%
  5. 21%-24%

    7 vote(s)
    4.3%
  6. 25%-28%

    4 vote(s)
    2.5%
  7. 29%+

    11 vote(s)
    6.8%
  1. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    They may not exist if this is not solved. :)
     
  2. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    And it's times like this, i think the "entitlement" of the average aussie gets a reality check
     
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  3. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    You saying this is the end of the world?
     
  4. Woodjda

    Woodjda Well-Known Member

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    It'll go 25% in the short term. That's why the government should bite the bullet, put $2k in everyone's bank account as survival money and shut the country as tightly as possible for a month while they develop testing resources to a point that afterwards we can get back to basically a normal life. Allow people to take out HECS style loans if they need more help to get through that. After the virus threat is over the economy will rebound quickly but the essential step is to get to that point.
     
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  5. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    In one day, the underemployed became unemployed. The unemployment rate will match the current underemployment rate.
     
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  6. James Bond

    James Bond Well-Known Member

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  7. Patrico1966

    Patrico1966 Well-Known Member

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    Just discussed the covid 19 issue with a shop owner who has 4 staff. Will not be laying off any staff and is selling more bread, milk etc that they have ever done and the smile on their faces was quite wide because they will be getting small business relief.
     
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  8. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    Not sure I understand what you mean.
    If businesses can continue to operate and keep people employed and remain profitable or even slightly below through the storm you think they care that people are doing it from home?

    Their is no novelty in that. Nothing to laugh about. That is an amazing feat.

    Hear I go again banging on about the same thing but here goes anyway! Those businesses who have enabled their staff to work from home and have systems in place will be far more equipped to survive this.

    Their is almost zero impact to our company of 120 staff working from home. All software is cloud based, phone systems enable phone twinning and calls can be made to and from mobiles through the companies SIP. Multiple online conference rooms, conference numbers.
    I got more done today than what I would have being in the office no question about it.
     
  9. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    Businesses will make their decision about redundancies based on how much business they have. Not because they like or dont like a particular way of working.

    they wont fire people just because they are forced to work from home, if the work is there.

    they wont keep people on and have them work from home if the business is not there.

    just because you think employers are petty tyrants who want to keep an eye on their peons doesnt mean they actually are. Even if they are, employers are realists.
     
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  10. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    Spot On!
    If I was an employer and I was making profit with staff working from home then I would be much happier. Save a #%¥! Load on overheads.
     
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  11. James Bond

    James Bond Well-Known Member

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    Just talked to my friend who owns a transport company. He's taking on staff to deal with demand, although he is expecting this to be a short term need.
     
  12. Leeroy93

    Leeroy93 Well-Known Member

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    Necessity is the mother of invention. If any business hadn't realized the value in leveraging technology to enable a flexible workforce they do now. This crisis will enforce new standards across all major corporations that will define the way we live and work, forever.
     
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  13. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    In the long term it could be a good thing. Corporate culture will have to change. In the short-medium term not every company has the resources, the training or even the bandwidth to support an en masse move to remote work, particularly small and medium sized businesses.
     
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  14. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Bill Evans: Unemployment to hit 11% by June

    "
    The sectors we see most impacted in the June quarter from a jobs perspective are: accommodation and food services (accounting for 921k total employees); retail trade (1264k); arts and recreation services (254k); manufacturing (894k); transport and warehousing (662k); real estate services (218k); construction (1178k) and professional services (1150k).

    In these sectors we see job losses ranging from 40% (arts and recreation services), 29% (hospitality) and 8% (construction).

    Sectors we expect to be reasonably resilient are: agriculture (327k); mining (247k); utilities (156k); and finance and insurance (450k).

    There are some sectors which we expect will increase employment. These are: Health Care (1725k); Public administration (841k); and telecommunications (210k). These increases are expected to range from 14% (telecommunications); to 10% (health care); and 5% (public administration).

    "
     
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  15. mickyyyy

    mickyyyy Well-Known Member

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    Anymore data come through on this topic?
     
  16. noobinator

    noobinator Active Member

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    I haven't reviewed this source thoroughly, but since you've asked, here's some data which is attempting to be more timely than ABS data (as well as classifying unemployment differently): Extra 1.4 million Australians out of work in wake of COVID-19 pandemic – 3.92 million (27.4% of workforce) now unemployed or under-employed

    Keep in mind the headline figure is overly alarming - if you look at their charts comparing themselves against official ABS figures they are consistently much higher.
     
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  17. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    We all know it's gonna be bad.

    The relevant question now is:

    How high will our Unemployment and Underemployment Rate go after COVID-19?
     
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  18. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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  19. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Denial is Not a River in Egypt

    Well, their central bank can keep 'printing money' to infinity.

    It will never be paid back by the taxpayers.

    Why? Because of Modern Monetary Magic!

    You have to change your 'classic' understanding of government spending, debt and deficit. Forget everything you know about these things -- instead focus on the Modern Monetary developments of the last decade.

    The US Government Debt has a de-facto "Offset Account" in the US Federal Reserve.
    The government 'deficit' is just a number.
    :rolleyes:

    That's why I'm not too worried about future GFCs.
    Central banks will always be there to save the day, guaranteed! :cool:

    #ModernMonetaryPolicy
     
    Last edited: 13th Apr, 2020
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  20. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Same as what UK is doing now. They have an overdraft with the Bank of England.
     
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