How high will our unemployment rate go?

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...-face-unemployment-queue-20200323-p54d14.html

Surprised very little talked about unemployment rate, maybe cos we've been too busy or its the "elephant in the room"

Currently its at 5.1%

some scary scenarios,

I hope to come out through this planning my next move rather than burying my elderly relatives, or scrounging everyday for basic necessities

 

Double digits. My niece lost her job today. My friend is an executive for a waste management company and they laid off 20 workers today from six figure FIFO roles because companies like Santos are delaying their projects.

 

The increase in unemployment benefits does make a difference tho?

 

If centrelink can handle it.

 

Easily 10%

 

Won’t it be temporary?
A spike for sure I’m thinking could get to 30% the longer this lockdown goes.

But the wealthy will find the many opportunities in the washup and employment will recover. Faith.

 

7% according to Westpac economist late last week

Remember this , in every recession you are fed lies and a mantra to soften the blow, to slow the stampede , they are never held to account later on these calls.

Already only a few days later I don’t think anyone believes it will be 7% , yet people still are believing other banks /economists / real estate agents / brokers/ financiers forecasts . Only yesterday people were saying no change to banks lending behaviours , they have spoken to the banks it’ll be business as usual etc etc

the same every single time , they lead the naive up the garden path.

 

Cant possibly be under 10%, the full brunt is still yet to hit as everything trickles down. Businesses are closing down as we speak.

 

Also factor in underemployment which is usually a bit under double the unemployment rate. Already in some companies workers are being asked to work fewer hours. In Jan 2020, this was 8.6% vs 5.1%.

And factor in workers who are supposedly working, but are are actually on extended leave out of their own pocket, eg Qantas.

 

I’ve made comment a few times but just my observation from someone working in a recruitment company and many friends in different recruitment companies.

So far 60% of our temp workforce have been sent to work from home. I found this an incredible statistic given how diverse our client base is. That is around 1,000 people still remaining fully employed with no change of pay.

The others are still working through and I have heard we have let about 30 staff go whilst at the same time hiring more than another 100 for a health client.

So for NOW it’s actually been no impact.
Also spoke to a friend who is a director at a blue collar recruitment company and so far haven’t lost any employee. However if we do go into full lockdown I fear they may struggle a lot more.

My guess though is we will spike to around 15% at the worst of it.

 

Definitely temporary but how much will it recover?

many of the businesses that laid people off wont be around be around any more

I was speaking to my local Gym owner who owns a few, he has stopped direct debits, refunded prepaid memberships and is apply to get out of leases, he told me that if the landlords dont let me out his lease or the government helps, he will file for bankruptcy after 3 months

 

What happens at the end of one, two, six months? Whilst it's all beer and skittles in the office at the moment about working from home, businesses will loose their sense of humour about this eventually and broader redundancies etc are inevitable.

 

I have a family member who owns and operates a gym. If there’s no government intervention with regards to rent, there is no chance the business will exist in as little as 2 months time.

And even when they allow them to re open there is no guarantee all members will return straight away.

So the chances of this gym still being viable after even a 2 month shutdown is slim.

 

If the landlord can survive in this case surely suspending rent would be the best bet. They are not going to get another tenant in these times and can go business as usual not long after restrictions are lifted

 

I'm guessing we'll see 15%. It's going to be a sharp, hard shock. Much worse than the GFC IMO.

I'm hoping the recovery will be equally sharp, whenever we turn on a corner on this either with a vaccine, treatment or successful flattening of the infection curve. Realistically we are probably in the poo until 2022. Look out for your friends and loved ones.

 

Drove past a centre link centre this morning at 7am (Surry Hills, NSW) the line was huuuuge.

I actually felt ill driving past, well dressed individuals, 20-40s in age.

It was ery

 

Maybe this is the sort of event to flush out the underemployment stats? Seems like maybe they will be the ones most likely to now be classified as unemployed.

 

The radio is saying you can call a number to be set up with Centrelink.... I wonder what the hold times will be?

Anyway, I count myself as very lucky, still healthy (except for Ankle problem), fairly young, have assets, have a safe job, no dependents.... was made redundant after GFC but was able to get a job I liked quickly through a former colleague. Not everybody will be so lucky and not everybody has assets they can fall back on. I think the COVID-19 impact to everybody is going to be much bigger than the GFC.
ps. My super has gone down $75k from peak and the Airbnb rental is an issue (no tenant)... but in the scheme of things, I feel i'm really blessed.

 

Terrible, just like 1991 but so much worse.
I voted 13-16%, but I think that's currently overly optimistic as it stands.

 

Totally agree.

And Governments at all levels are spending money like there is no tomorrow (which I fully agree with).

One day we will be told how much they spent fighting this virus.

It will huge and take a long time to pay back. The younger generations could be carrying this financial burden for years, maybe decades .

It took Britain more than 55 years to repay their WW2 debt. Let’s hope this isn’t history repeating itself.