How has the the government handled the economic fallout of COVID-19

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Antoni0, 1st Apr, 2020.

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  1. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Absolutely - I was going to post something along these lines myself.

    You simply cannot go from "business as usual" to "full lockdown" overnight - there would be so much fear and confusion and people not doing the right thing because they simply don't understand.

    The progressive lockdowns gives people a moment to get used to the new reality and prepare for what's to come.

    I have no doubt that if we went from zero to full lockdown overnight we would have seen violence spilled over from panicking people. As it is now - we've mostly managed to get our food and necessity supply chains back in order because people panicked slowly, not all at once.

    If they tried to go to full lockdown 2 weeks ago when there were less than 500 cases in Australia, people wouldn't have listened because they would not have believed the risk. You just have to look at the number of people out there now who still aren't taking the risk seriously - either because they believe that "it's just a bad flu" or because they simply don't give a damn about anyone else.

    It's far from ideal and yes, policy is being made on the run, and yes, I think the PM's announcement about the eviction moratorium has failed to reassure people like it was intended and instead has caused far more anxiety - but things are changing very quickly.

    I think it's far too early to judge the outcomes of the government stimulus - we'll have plenty of time for that later. It'll be 10 years or so until the next global crisis - so we'll have to fill that time somehow :p
     
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  2. Peter_Tersteeg

    Peter_Tersteeg Mortgage Broker Business Member

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  3. Patrico1966

    Patrico1966 Well-Known Member

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    Too many excuses being made for the people in Australia regarding the issue of lockdowns etc. Why wouldn't they understand? I did, my neighbours did.
    Not sure about the violence spill either from panicking people, that's a throwaway line if ever I have seen one. Throwing money around like confetti is one of the biggest mistakes the govt made. The PM has not reassured anyone on anything, the state premiers have shown more leadership than the PM and his cronies. I note that Australia is starting to run out of the surgical masks and other vital health items, yet other countries have been ridiculed for the same thing. People are deliberately breaking rules, actually it is a crime now to go beyond the no entry covid 19 barriers. Why are the police not enacting this? they have been tardy to say the least, warnings don't work in situations like this.
    It is much better to take strong action from the start and then work on it from there, its called foresight.
    Finally, where is the exit strategy for this from the Govt? Now all the money has been thrown around and the place is going into a sort of lockdown , what's next? Australia had a head start because we are an Island. Tasmania would hardly have had a case if it wasn't for boat travellers and others bringing it into the state. Sydney is the worse case for travellers bringing the disease here. Very belated action from Scomo on that as well. Policies on the run is correct, the govt has not excelled itself in any way, if so can it be highlighted to me?

    So , now for a recovery. How can this Govt put in a strategy to do that?
     
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  4. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    The issue with the rent moratorium is a Catch22 ... I have an IP that became vacant this week with obviously no interest from any other renters due to current circumstances, despite dropping 1/4 off the asking rent.

    So the issue now is, do I slash the rent just to get someone in and have the place occupied, but I then run the risk of them not paying any rent at all? The property has no mortgage but I would still have to cover the bills and I couldn't toss them out for six months ... or do I leave it vacant and reassess after the 90 day lockdown?

    I'm leaning towards the "vacant", which means no home for someone who may need a roof.

    The government would've been better off paying a portion of the rent itself directly to the managing agent - like Compass Housing do for those on the pension requiring state housing

    ... however ...

    In fairness - no government in the world has been put in this pandemic situation since 1918, so they're making it up as they go along. Bits they'll get right and bits they'll get wrong ... no way to tell which way the bits will fall until after it passes
     
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  5. Antoni0

    Antoni0 Well-Known Member

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    A lot of people just don't get it and the quicker we get on top of this Virus the quicker everyone can get on with their lives. A good government leads and reduces panic in the community, we've been led to ruins, our knowledge to manufacture is almost all but gone when we need it the most and it's been a spiral down from many decades ago. Our government is asleep, foreign countries run shopping Daigou bussinesses and snap up all the essentials to survive the pandemic and leave us to deal shortages when the products are made by the people that have taken them. People need to have a good think about this.
     
  6. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    In many places the kids being kept home from school are not being supervised because their parents still have to go to work. Many kids are hanging around shopping centres / skate parks / etc.

    Our local council have had to cover skate parks with sand and put barriers around playgrounds to discourage people from hanging out there.

    Then there are all the tourists still travelling around, potentially spreading the virus.

    There are people down at the shops still who will get their coffee and sit around chatting to each other in groups - no social distancing.

    People hanging out at the beach in groups in close proximity.

    @Sackie 's neighbours who have been holding regular house parties.

    There's plenty of it going around.

    In most cases I don't think it's a case of "don't understand" the concept of lockdown, in some cases it is possibly a case of "don't understand the severity of the risk we face", but in many cases it's definitely a case of "I don't care - nobody has a right to tell me I can't do stuff"
     
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  7. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    There are laws against Driving while intoxicated. People still do it.

    There are laws against Driving under the influence of drugs. People still do it.

    What part of stupid is hard to understand?
     
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  8. Patrico1966

    Patrico1966 Well-Known Member

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    In my area in Tasmania I don't see many people at all now, we have a house with good views, yes there are construction workers. Far less traffic. On visits to a GP I noticed people still wandering around in the neighbouring town but nothing too outrageous. It seems as if Victoria and NSW are having the biggest problems. Vic police are pretty strict from what I am reading online and on the news. I would take a guess and say the drink and drug driving offences would have dropped dramatically in the past week so they are not that stupid because they know they will definitely get caught. The rule breaking can be stopped and should have been. I wonder how many pubs in Victoria are trying one on by staying open?, one did and got a nasty fine, wont be too many others. Too many excuses are made for these people- stupid, ignorant, didn't get the message, don't have a TV, need sugar badly etc etc. Take away the excuses and what have you got?
     
  9. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Re the "no pay rent" - talking to an agent where we live, where there is a lot of casual work and the agent has the biggest rent roll in the area, and he said they've got 300 tenants who have said they won't be paying rent.

    The agent where my IP is located has only a handful of no-payers

    But the issue is that, if the tenant doesn't pay rent - and/or a portion of the rent doesn't come directly from the government as part of the payout - then the rental agents can't charge a management fees to the owners (as management fees are charged as a percentage of the rent paid), yet they are still expected to manage the properties without getting paid ... so ... tenant gets government handout income and may chose to hang onto it all - landlord gets no rent - rental agency gets no management fee - banks get no mortgage payment

    Doesn't appear the money is "sloshing" around in the economy that way
     
    Last edited: 2nd Apr, 2020
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  10. Kr@mer

    Kr@mer Well-Known Member

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    I don’t understand the obsession everyone has with a full lockdown it doesn’t achieve anything. It doesn’t make the virus go away it doesn’t save the economy all it does is help the health system cope with the so called peak cases which is where the huge numbers of death will occur. whatever the govt is currently doing is to try help the majority of the population no one policy is going to suit everyone. The tenant scenario I am concerned about myself as initial thoughts were people will just put that money into other things now they know they can’t be evicted but with the job keeper initiative and further strategies for childcare etc there are more chances most people will get some assistance in some way.

    Don’t get me wrong me and the wife are in the basket that always seem to miss out, due to income thresholds etc and it is frustrating seeing how much tax we pay and everyone else seems to get a free ride, and by no means do we live a comfortable life.

    I’m sure some will take advantage of the benefits and may well be better off than before this virus and we will be paying for all this spending through taxes in the long run.... time will tell but better to try sensible measures now than regret not doing enough

    just my 2c
     
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  11. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure what rock you've been hiding under ... but you do realise this virus is 3x more infectious than the flu ... and 10x more deadly ... right?

    Perhaps you need to do some research into why this is such a serious situation.

    We too are in the "never receive anything" but I'm not whinging about missing out ... yes, some policy could be done better like the rent payments go direct to the managing agents, but a situation like this hasn't been seen since 1918 so the government is making up the solution as they go along

    Personally I'd rather be healthy and alive than dead with a handout
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 3rd Apr, 2020
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  12. Antoni0

    Antoni0 Well-Known Member

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    The problem they have is if hospitals become overfull they will need to turn people away, secondly it has a good chance of killing anyone that is vulnerable, like the elderly or people that already have illness. I'm sure you will be very upset if your child has asthma and needed an ICU bed and was turned away because they were all used up.

    This virus even kills health care workers, so you will have fewer Doctors and Nurses to manage at the ICU wards. You can't just pull Doctors or hospital staff and equipment out of your back pocket overnight and it's easier to treat a population over time rather than all at once. As long as the virus has a host it will keep on living because it doesn't generally last for a long time out of the body, so the less interaction you have with a possible carrier the better.
     
  13. Leeroy93

    Leeroy93 Well-Known Member

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    I'd like to put on record I thought this was a great summary @Peter_Tersteeg - Deserves more upvotes ;)
     
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  14. Antoni0

    Antoni0 Well-Known Member

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    The fun has only just begun, I think luck has played a big part on this big island of ours and the pandemic hasn't hit hard yet, our population is small and spread out unlike China and Italy, we weren't the first country to have a massive breakout, so we've learnt from other countries mistakes but from what I've been reading you will see real figures over winter.
     
  15. Leeroy93

    Leeroy93 Well-Known Member

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    I'd say from my observations living in inner Brisbane, the vast majority are playing by the rules. I can't logically foresee a scenario where the virus spreads out of control apart from everyone congregating at coles/woolies. People will get used to this 'new normal', develop structures around their lives and simply adapt. We are creatures of habit. I think we are privileged to live in an environment with a high standard of living, welfare to maintain a sustained 'hibernation' and law abiding people who are willing to do what's needed.
     
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  16. Antoni0

    Antoni0 Well-Known Member

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    yeah, we certainly are in a better position than most other countries are ATM.
    The virus does last on hard surfaces for a while too but it's not in high concentration so less likely of transmission. I see quite a few people not practising social distancing in my area, watching a set of town houses going up across the road and a few of the workers all get in the one car and go off for smoko but the financial climb out of this will be hard for some.
     
  17. Leeroy93

    Leeroy93 Well-Known Member

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    True there will always be some breaking the rules and you tend to notice them more now because there is simply less people around. I read that the margins are quite important with regards to the effectiveness of social distancing. If 70% do it vs 80% the negative impact is considerable. I'd say from my observations we are closer to the 90%.
     
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  18. Kr@mer

    Kr@mer Well-Known Member

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    Not hiding under no rocks... I am one of the high risk being being immune compromised so well aware of the risks....... full lockdown only causes further harm to people’s livelihoods..... I would rather be alive too so obviously people should apply there own common sense and keep things to a minimum.... the point I’m making is a full lockdown doesn’t eliminate the virus.... it only allows the health system to cope.
     
  19. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    The bit about proportionality for landlords is a joke. So many SMEs are cash businesses who will soon report a 98% fall in revenue and ask for a 98% reduction in rent.

    Scomo has basically come out and ****ed non-institutional landlords, while he’s too scared to take on Vicinity or Scentre
     
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  20. Serveman

    Serveman Well-Known Member

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    I am concerned now that we are building up such a massive debt that generations to come will be laden with it.
    Spending tomorrow’s money today is a worry and we should get stuck in straight away to pay our way. Fortunately we are in a better position than many other countries and interest rates are low so that’s a positive.