Housing prices in Australia 1970 to 2003.

I was revisiting historical data and thought I might make a note of what year each capital city "caught up" to (well, exceeded) where Sydney's median was at a point in the past.

May as well share

Here's the 10 year markers:




Same data but 5 year markers:




Note that by 1991, every capital had exceeded Sydney's 1985 median house price.

Source: http://www.econ.mq.edu.au/Econ_docs/research_papers2/2004_research_papers/Abelson_9_04.pdf

Note: The data is not perfect (see below), but it's something.

Sources and notes: (a) 1970-1979 from Applied Economics (1991); 1980-2003 are from NSW VG / Department of Housing data. (b) 1970-79 are Productivity Commission data; 1980-2003 are Victorian VG data. (c ) 1973-79 are mean prices from Abelson (1982) factored down by 8% to fit REIA median data in 1980 and 1981; 1980-85, REIA data; 1986-2003, Queensland VG data (d) 1971-79 are mean values from Abelson (1981)Applied Economics (1991) reduced by 8% for medians; 1980-2003 are from SA VG. (e) 1970-89, based on REIA data. 1990-2003, average of quarterly data from the Department of Land. (f) 1971-81 are mean values (Abelson, 1982) reduced by 8%; 1982-83 are interpolated; 1984-90, CBA data spliced to 1991-2003 average quarterly REIA data.. (g) Average of quarterly medians from REIA. (h) 1971-80 are mean values from Abelson (1982) reduced by 9% for medians; 1981-2003 are average of quarterly REIA medians.

 

And im thinking it's going to start having year gap widening the further into the future we go...

2000, 2010, 2020....

 

love your avatar

 

I love yours!
It's like seeing you get a new fresh hairstyle every few weeks

 

I see Sydney property was completely flat or backwards between 1990-1995. High interest rates....

 

Historical mortgage rates can be found at:

HISTORICAL INTEREST RATES AUSTRALIA

 

Interesting graphs......thanks for posting.

 

Thanks Graeme

 

Is there data anywhere that goes past 2003 to present ?

 

Here's the graphical version...it'd be interesting to see the trend past 2003, if anyone has the data I'll plug it into these charts...

 

Whoops, just noticed the original post had the 10 year one twice. I've added the correct image for 5 years as well.

Nice of you to produce that @teetotal

 

So where are the so called property cycles?

Apart from one year (1990), Sydney prices have continued an upward flight for last 45 years or so?

 

Yeah... a guy told me he bought his Sydney home for 43k, 40 years ago. Just sold now for 1.425m. 9% annual yoy growth. Impressive.

 

It sort off flatlined between 2004-2008, then started taking off again.

 

Lot less than an index fund would have earned him + all those dividends through the years. With dividends re-invested, he could have done a lot better.

Property investment only makes sense if leveraged through a lender. For example, he could have bought property worth 200K in 1970 using his 40K as deposit and now would atleast be worth $10mil or so even if no further investments from made in the interim period.

What a missed opportunity!!

 

A half cycle is probably a better term then - boom, flat, boom, flat...

 

And early 2000's to mid, approx..

 

Have a look at the Sydney median in 1990, that figure wasn't exceeded until 1995.

Melbourne in 1989, the median didn't recover and exceed this figure until 1997.

The 90-91 Recession had long lasting affects on the property market.

 

Interesting post thanks!

 

OK, got the data past 2003 from ABS. Chart updated below.
It appears that all Capital cities do catch up with Sydney median prices at some point in time but some take more time than others.
By the looks of the past trend - Sydney is going to go flat for a while and Brisbane, Adelaide & Hobart are due for a catch up very soon.