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Housing prices in Australia 1970 to 2003.

Discussion in 'General Property Chat' started by Steven Ryan, 21st May, 2016.

  1. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

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    I was revisiting historical data and thought I might make a note of what year each capital city "caught up" to (well, exceeded) where Sydney's median was at a point in the past.

    May as well share :)

    Here's the 10 year markers:

    10 year medians.png
    10 year medians.png

    Same data but 5 year markers:

    5 year medians.png
    5 year medians.png

    Note that by 1991, every capital had exceeded Sydney's 1985 median house price.

    Source: http://www.econ.mq.edu.au/Econ_docs/research_papers2/2004_research_papers/Abelson_9_04.pdf

    Note: The data is not perfect (see below), but it's something.

    Sources and notes: (a) 1970-1979 from Applied Economics (1991); 1980-2003 are from NSW VG / Department of Housing data. (b) 1970-79 are Productivity Commission data; 1980-2003 are Victorian VG data. (c ) 1973-79 are mean prices from Abelson (1982) factored down by 8% to fit REIA median data in 1980 and 1981; 1980-85, REIA data; 1986-2003, Queensland VG data (d) 1971-79 are mean values from Abelson (1981)Applied Economics (1991) reduced by 8% for medians; 1980-2003 are from SA VG. (e) 1970-89, based on REIA data. 1990-2003, average of quarterly data from the Department of Land. (f) 1971-81 are mean values (Abelson, 1982) reduced by 8%; 1982-83 are interpolated; 1984-90, CBA data spliced to 1991-2003 average quarterly REIA data.. (g) Average of quarterly medians from REIA. (h) 1971-80 are mean values from Abelson (1982) reduced by 9% for medians; 1981-2003 are average of quarterly REIA medians.
     

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    Last edited: 22nd May, 2016
  2. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    And im thinking it's going to start having year gap widening the further into the future we go...

    2000, 2010, 2020....
     
  3. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    love your avatar:)
     
  4. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    I love yours!
    It's like seeing you get a new fresh hairstyle every few weeks
     
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  5. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    I see Sydney property was completely flat or backwards between 1990-1995. High interest rates....
     
  6. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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  7. Gurtofen

    Gurtofen Well-Known Member

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    Interesting graphs......thanks for posting.
     
  8. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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  9. teetotal

    teetotal Well-Known Member

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    Is there data anywhere that goes past 2003 to present ?
     
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  10. teetotal

    teetotal Well-Known Member

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    Here's the graphical version...it'd be interesting to see the trend past 2003, if anyone has the data I'll plug it into these charts...
    upload_2016-5-21_22-6-19.png upload_2016-5-21_22-6-19.png
     
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  11. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

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    Whoops, just noticed the original post had the 10 year one twice. I've added the correct image for 5 years as well.

    Nice of you to produce that @teetotal :)
     
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  12. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    So where are the so called property cycles?

    Apart from one year (1990), Sydney prices have continued an upward flight for last 45 years or so?
     
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  13. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    Yeah... a guy told me he bought his Sydney home for 43k, 40 years ago. Just sold now for 1.425m. 9% annual yoy growth. Impressive.
     
  14. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    It sort off flatlined between 2004-2008, then started taking off again.
     
  15. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Lot less than an index fund would have earned him + all those dividends through the years. With dividends re-invested, he could have done a lot better.

    Property investment only makes sense if leveraged through a lender. For example, he could have bought property worth 200K in 1970 using his 40K as deposit and now would atleast be worth $10mil or so even if no further investments from made in the interim period.

    What a missed opportunity!!
     
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  16. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    A half cycle is probably a better term then - boom, flat, boom, flat...
     
  17. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    And early 2000's to mid, approx..
     
  18. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Have a look at the Sydney median in 1990, that figure wasn't exceeded until 1995.

    Melbourne in 1989, the median didn't recover and exceed this figure until 1997.

    The 90-91 Recession had long lasting affects on the property market.
     
  19. Dmarkw

    Dmarkw Well-Known Member

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    Interesting post thanks!
     
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  20. teetotal

    teetotal Well-Known Member

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    OK, got the data past 2003 from ABS. Chart updated below.
    It appears that all Capital cities do catch up with Sydney median prices at some point in time but some take more time than others.
    By the looks of the past trend - Sydney is going to go flat for a while and Brisbane, Adelaide & Hobart are due for a catch up very soon.

    upload_2016-7-23_15-3-43.png