Housing Bubble 2003

This is how it was doom & gloom in 2003 and I see the same topics making headlines again in 2016.
smh.com.au - The Sydney Morning Herald

So how accurate are these analysts ?

 

Not accurate at all. Analysts or not, everyone relies on speculation. There is no real way of telling.

When GFC came about I remember there was an economist on a current affair who had listed his house to sell because he thought until 2017 Australia will be in a huge recession and houses will drop. Lo n behold the exact opposite of that happened.

The banks have tightened lending and that will surely mean that the houses across Australia wont keep on going up. But what can happen next is not up to analysts to determine. If anyone tried to tell you what will happen, you can be certain it is their personal opinion and nothing more.

 

i'd be keen to read the answers of the active investors back in 2003..

 

Great post....what is different is that not as many people moving to Qld...but it is starting to move..there will be an upward cycle but I don't feel it will be what happened in 2003.

Driven out of the world's best city - www.smh.com.au

 

Correct, now more ppl are moving to VIC instead but still there is a fairbit going to Brisbane (especially on Brisbane-GC highway new developments).

 

That is correct...the migration is now South....already know 3 people who sold up here took the profits and bought land 25-45 klms from the city for cash!

When the land settles they will build a new house for less than 220k and move there. Some already have half the house cost saved.....

 

Predictions are always made with the information at hand.

During the GFC the prediction of "housing price collapse" was a fairly good one... until the Government threw billions in stimulus.

Then people look back and say those predicting downturn were doomers and fools.

Right now we have a Sydney drop over six months larger than the drop over one year during the GFC, mounting evidence of banking and broker fraud, APRA restrictions slowing biting... so I predict housing will continue the downward trajectory...

... until unknown event occurs where Government throws billions at it!

 

Fair point ! Regarding unknown events.
However these predictions are made during booms and example you gave was during GFC.

But agree that growth in Sydney has stopped but only in certain areas. For ex. First hand info regarding suburbs around Maroubra is that they are still going up.

 

No one can tell what the future holds. In 2012 certain economists were saying the media was fear mongering the mining down turn and that it would bounce back, they showed all the evidence to back themselves up and still got it wrong. I think its Warren Buffet who said if a company hires an economist they have one employee too many.

 

Agree. It was interesting to see house prices in Eastwood and Epping were nearly the same as Maroubra about 2 years ago. And Maroubra is a South Eastern beach suburb not too far from the city. Maroubra went up a long time ago and in the latest boom it went up a lot less than Epping and Eastwood. Which made me think it was relatively underpriced.

 

Which means the pull back from Epping and Eastwood will be more severe.....watch what happens here folks.....no more chinese money coming through...the market is at the top.

 

Trust me... these areas are still very popular!

 

I think the reason for that might be people have started to think it is now a good time to buy here because they may get discounts or bargains due to market slowdown.
Or they might actually be getting good prices.
Thoughts?

 

Still not a buyers market...

 

I was playing in the Perth market at the time and we had the MOTHER OF ALL BOOMS from 2001-2007, driven by the mining boom.

Not only did residential property boom but also commercial property. Property prices, doubled/tripled and I think is possibly the longest boom cycle in Australian history, made some investors very wealthy,, walking away from their day jobs.

 

Melb number 1 for immigration today.