House price increase from trough ... so far

83% clearance rate according to REA for Melbourne today, very strong result especially considering the miserable weather.

 

just checked corelogic's end-oct index for mel and syd and by my calcs, this past week has seen highest weekly net increase in values for both cities this year? Or are my calculations out? Looks like the month on month increase sep vs oct might also be the highest monthly increase in years?
CoreLogic Home Value Index - Daily Indices | CoreLogic

 

I haven't had time to analyse weekly changes but just look at the big upswing in Adelaide (last 2-3 weeks) and Brisbane (last 4 weeks) recently.



Still too early too hard to determine if Perth has hit the bottom.

Here's the summary data I am regularly calculating:



I think by the end of year we will have Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane/Gold Coast and Adelaide with positive YoY change for calendar year 2019.

 

I wonder if this is literally the turning point for Perth? All data seems to be pointing to some sort of a recovery in the market. Rental market is definitely well into a recovery.

 

It's definitely looking like Perth is bottoming.



Adelaide now within a whisker of creeping back up above the index value it had on the election date.

 

Regarding Perth, from today's housing lending figures to Sep-19.

WA now rising...?

 

To quote Phil Collins “I've been waiting for this moment for all my life”.

 

Su-Su-Subiacooo!!

 

@petewargent @wombat777 would you mind explaining what the index number correlates too?

ie Sydney at 160.. what does that mean in the data? It’s probably been explained somewhere I’ve missed so excuse me on this one.

 

This explains it.

https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-01/Residential-Property-Index-Series.pdf

See also:

CoreLogic Home Value Index - Back Series | CoreLogic

( for my analysis and charts I download the data from here and copy/paste the raw data to a spreadsheet I periodically update for regenerating the table and chart )

 

I'd say Perth should now at least start flat-lining if not see some small positive growth in the coming months..

 

Perth seem to have been stabilised and ticking upward from the look of things rp data index. When vacancy hits below 2% sometime around mid next year, we should see larger moves. There's lots value to be had in Perth with lots of properties below much replacement value.

 

What would be your pick of suburbs in perth if you have to invest?

 

I got a house in Victoria park, which is 3 kms from the cbd and has a top two public school of WA and a very vibrant food scene. I picked locations closest to cbd with a land component that i can afford mainly for tenant quality since we are from Sydney and wants a hassle free kind of investment.

 

I bought a villa in Carlisle last year and in hindsight wish i would have spent a bit more and bought something on a green title one suburb over in Vic Park. Still think Carlisle will do OK in the medium term but Vic Park will likely move first.

 

From SQM Research:

Most Cities to record Dwelling Price Rises in 2020.
APRA to not intervene.

Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report 2020 is Out Now!


Most of Australia’s capital cities will benefit from the interest rate cuts and loosening of credit restrictions to record dwelling price rises over 2020 with Sydney and Melbourne leading the charge, according to Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report for 2020, released today by SQM Research.

The base case forecast is for dwelling prices to rise between 7% to 11%, which is a strong bounce back from the price falls recorded over 2018 and the first half of 2019.

Sydney and Melbourne will drive the rises. The forecast is for Sydney to rise between 10% to 14% and Melbourne 11% to 15%. Other cities are also expected to record price rises.



The base case forecasts assume no changes in interest rates and, importantly, no intervention by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). The base case also assumes a recovering Australian economy that has responded to the rate cuts of 2019 and reduced international trade tensions. One that is also been driven by ongoing strong population growth rates.

As a result of the improved international outlook and an existing recovering in mining investment, the city of Perth will finally record price rises next year after a prolonged housing downturn. The forecast is for Perth dwelling prices to rise between 3% to 6%. Brisbane will also benefit from the recovery in mining investment and should also record price rises in the order of 3% to 6%.

Darwin is the only city expected to record price declines. The forecast of for prices to fall between -2% to -5%, as the Darwin economy continues to struggle and excess stock for sale continues to weaken the local market.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research said, “The Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have recorded a sharp turnaround in the 2nd half of 2019 following on from the surprise result of the Federal Election, interest rate cuts, the loosening of credit restrictions and ongoing strong population growth rates. These factors are expected to drive the national housing market into 2020. In a close call, APRA is expected to not immediately intervene despite the strong price rises.

“However we have some misgivings on the sustainability of this new recovery. Sydney and Melbourne are rising from an overvalued point. Long term, our two largest housing markets look vulnerable and forever reliant on cheap credit. Housing debt, while falling compared to GDP over 2019, is still very high. Better value can definitely found elsewhere such as Perth and Brisbane”, said Christopher.

SQM Research also anticipates an ongoing recovery in the Brisbane and Perth rental markets in 2020. While Sydney, will still likely record a fall in rents for the 3rd year running.

 

Another update. Data based on the data in the Core Logic Daily Index. Chart has been rebased to the election date.

Sydney and Melbourne accelerating. Perth bottoming. Brisbane and Adelaide continue a slower rate of increase.

Forecast change between the election date and end of 2019 is 11.09% for Sydney and 10.46% for Melbourne.

 

In reality, what i'm observing in Melbourne is that prices are in some suburbs back at, and even exceeding previous peak prices, for quality stock and quoting by agents is startingt to reflect this. the turnaround and sharp increase in Bayside and surrounds in the last 3 months has been remarkable. Parts of melbourne have increased 15% since the election and wiped out all the losses from the "crash".

 

Was going to say the same thing.

Bayside was absolutely smashed in the downturn. It’s having the sharpest rebound

Places like Cheltenham are quite conceivably up 20% since the election and back to the pre-election historical high’s.

 

Same property - Oct 19, previously sold Aug 18

minor cosmetic improvement only.

Aug 18 - $975k
State-of-the-Art Surprise Package - Greg Hocking ​

Oct 19 - $1.1m - sold prior to auction
https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-unit-vic-cheltenham-132156278