House price increase from trough ... so far

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by wombat777, 1st Aug, 2019.

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  1. noviceInvestor1

    noviceInvestor1 Active Member

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    @Blueshoes99 Mate, how in the world would you get to Wynyard from this house on Turner Ave in 40 minutes at peak time?!!
     
  2. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    You had 2 years to have your pick of properties.


    Like the rest of the market rushing back in now. Well now is not the time to complain. Many has sat on side lines now coming back in.
     
  3. ms420

    ms420 Well-Known Member

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    Good point mate. Well, who knew it is going from zero to hero in 2 months? :)

    My plan now is to sit out the spring period and start looking again from Jan/Feb 2020
     
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  4. Blueshoes99

    Blueshoes99 Well-Known Member

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    Friendly reminder first home owners grant (new one) is live in Jan/Feb 2020. I believe they only need a 5% deposit with reduced or waived stamp duty (lucky!). This scheme is capped for 10,000 people and even if Sydney gets 1/6 that’s 1666 couples looking to buy. However I believe the number will be much higher based on volume of people in each state so potentially you could be competing against 2000 (guesstimating) first home owners in Sydney who only need a 5% deposit. Just food for thought.

    Also at 5% deposit they don’t have to pay LMI!

    Max pay cap - single at $125k and couple at $200k! Woah, that is pretty good. They are able to service $1.4-1.6 million dollar loans. Other people who have been saving for ages... gonna be tough competing at 5% deposit.

    What you need to know about Morrison's first-home buyer scheme

    So lucky!
     
    Last edited: 25th Sep, 2019
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  5. Blueshoes99

    Blueshoes99 Well-Known Member

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    Good point - flyyyyyyy lol
     
  6. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Screenshot of the following since tweets don't embed.

    I added the circles to highlight the change in auction medians.

    Screen Shot 2019-09-28 at 8.24.44 pm.png
     
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  7. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    This is my last opportunity to update this data for several weeks.

    Key point from this week Brisbane turnaround is definitely underway. It is less than 0.02% away from the index value it had at the time of the election.

    Sydney and Melbourne are on track for approximately 9 - 10% lift in prices between the election and end of 2019 and both look like they'll record 4%-5%+ change YoY 2019.

    Charts suggest Adelaide may be starting to turn. Has it hit the bottom of the downtrend?

    Table below is from my own analysis of the CoreLogic Daily Index data.

    Screen Shot 2019-09-29 at 11.43.19 am.png

    Charts below are rebased to the election date and are based on CoreLogic Daily Index data.

    Screen Shot 2019-09-29 at 12.00.54 pm.png

    Screen Shot 2019-09-29 at 12.02.11 pm.png
     
  8. Triton

    Triton Well-Known Member

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    Great work
     
  9. Scaphella

    Scaphella Well-Known Member

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    Cmoooon Perth :(
     
  10. skater

    skater Capitalist -- www.skatepro.com.au

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    I don't know if it's quite 10%, but it is definately up. Bought, reno'd and sold one in Emerton. It settled not too long ago. The house next door is currently for sale & they are asking another $50k on our one. One bedroom less & a very dodgy partial reno.
     
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  11. petewargent

    petewargent Well-Known Member

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  12. ms420

    ms420 Well-Known Member

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    If you hear the RE agents location doesn’t matter anymore in Sydney. Property condition too doesn’t matter. What seems to matter is whether the banks will lend you the money- if so they want you to spend every dime of it. Go Sydney!
     
  13. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    That's precisely it. No one really knows what's going to happen. As much as ppl love to crystal ball this stuff, often prices rise when sentiment changes overnight. That's why I keep saying invest within your risk profile. That's all anyone can really do.
     
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  14. Bombers86

    Bombers86 Well-Known Member

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    It is quite fascinating isn't it. I guess as a whole market, which is what Core Logic represents - how can it possibly keep going down for this long? Perth is so cheap right now. Even Hobart's median has flown past Perth. You could almost say nearly everything built new is below replacement value when trying to sell after completion.
    In positive news unemployment just went down 0.4% in the last quarter to 5.8% bucking the trend of nearly every other state and the national result, vacancy rates are dropping - over 50% since 2017 according to SQM. The average wage in WA increased this year also. Population growth is still in the positive (albeit still very low) and building supply is at an all-time low.

    I just wonder when the sentiment will change.
     
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  15. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent

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    Isn't the challenge in Perth, that resources projects need a lot of man power to set up, but not a lot of man power to run. So once the mine (for example) is built and ready to start operating, with the rail lines connected etc, it requires about 10% of the workforce to run.
     
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  16. Harris

    Harris Well-Known Member

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    Will be good to see the latest when you get an opportunity to post - thanks
     
  17. petewargent

    petewargent Well-Known Member

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    Here you go.

    Post election:

    Sydney +4.14pc
    Melbourne +3.91pc
    Perth -3.40pc
    5 capital city aggregate +2.42pc


    upload_2019-10-7_7-48-57.png

    I note DFA now argues the index can't be trusted due to low volumes (about 10k per month).
     
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  18. Harris

    Harris Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Pete for the update - who is DFA?
     
  19. Jmillar

    Jmillar Well-Known Member

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    This is a very valid point.

    Do we know how many homes under say $1.5m are sold each year to owner occupiers across the country?

    Would be good to know what 10,000 buyers looks like as a percentage of the whole market..
     
  20. croseks

    croseks Well-Known Member

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    Queensland has always been lagging behind Melbourne and Sydney, mostly because lots of interstate investors are buying but the local economy is just not strong enough to support huge price growth. Once there is more highly skilled jobs in Brisbane then prices will ramp up very quickly, but by that point where will Melbourne and Sydney be?