House price increase from trough ... so far

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by wombat777, 1st Aug, 2019.

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  1. mickyyyy

    mickyyyy Well-Known Member

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    I'm expecting max 10% growth for Sydney next 24 months and like previous cycles we are coming of the bottom of the U aka peak to trough. I'm not sure on Melbourne thou as so much population growth still happening down there and building approvals have dropped off big time across the east coast of Australia.
     
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  2. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    upload_2019-9-2_10-8-40.png


    So far
    Sydney House price
    • CLI = 182 (Oct 2017?) Peak
    • CLI = 153 (May 19)
    • CLI = 155.5 (Aug 19)

      As per CLI Sydney house prices
    • % Fall from peak : [(182-153)/182] *100 = 15.93%
    • % required gain to reach past peak = [(182-153)/153]*100 = 18.9%
    • % recovery so far = [(155.5 - 153)/153]*100 = 1.63%
     
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  3. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Are you saying in this recent surge of prices, it has only gained 1.63% ?
     
  4. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    not me...thats as per core logic index,
    considering settlement lag oct/nov fig might reflect todays reality.
     
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  5. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    That's 1.6% from the peak I assume and across all dwellings. So it could be alot more for certain dwellings when compared to say 6 months ago and now.
     
  6. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    thats 1.63% gain from bottom of May19, this is only for houses not units,
     
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  7. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Two weeks since I last updated stats ...

    Analysis is based on the data from the Core Logic Daily Index.

    Sydney has now increased 2.906% since the election and Melbourne 2.837% ( in just 118 days ).

    In the last 28 days the Sydney index has increased 1.694% and Melbourne 1.679%. If this rate of change continues then we will see a 9.58% and 9.45% variation in Sydney and Melbourne index values between election on 18 May and the end of 2019.

    Extrapolating the change for the last 28-days ... how would this look as a YoY change covering the 12-months from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019 ... well based on the last 28-days of change in the index:
    • Sydney = 4.6% YoY 2019 ( forecast was 4.2% YoY 2 weeks ago )
    • Melbourne = 4.8% YoY 2019 ( forecast was 3.7% YoY 2 weeks ago )
    • Brisbane = -1.0% YoY 2019 ( forecast was 1.0% YoY 2 weeks ago )
    • Adelaide = -1.5% YoY 2019 ( forecast was -2.4% YoY 2 weeks ago )
    • Perth = -8.2% YoY 2019 ( forecast was -9.0% YoY 2 weeks ago )
    • 5 city = 2.2% YoY 2019 ( forecast was 1.6% YoY 2 weeks ago )
    ( method used was to take today's index value and extrapolate it forward to calculate a forecast index value for end of year based on the rate of change for the last 28 days - from this I could then calculate a forecast change for 2019 )

    Data is from my own analysis of the changes in the Core Logic Daily Index.

    Screen Shot 2019-09-13 at 11.09.42 pm.png

    My chart of the change in the index since the election on 18 May is below. Data has been rebased to this point. Rebasing helps to visualise the change.

    Brisbane is looking like it has turned and Adelaide may have bottomed.

    Screen Shot 2019-09-13 at 11.08.36 pm.png

    This is a new chart from 1 January to today with index values rebased to the election date.

    Screen Shot 2019-09-13 at 11.09.02 pm.png
     
  8. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    @wombat777 looks like Perth overall took another beating this past year?

    Perth = -8.2% YoY 2019 ( forecast was -9.0% YoY 2 weeks ago )
     
  9. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Above is positive as rate of decline has significantly slowed for Perth in the last 28 days.
     
  10. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    But still down 8.2% yoy. Wonder What the next quarter will show for WA.
     
  11. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Analysis is based on Core Logic Daily Index data.

    Headline figures this week have to be the forecast change for Sydney and Melbourne between the election and the end of 2019 ...

    My forecast based on the last 28 days of movement in the index:
    • Sydney an increase of 9.58% between 18 May and 31 December ( 4.6% YoY )
    • Melbourne an increase of 10.29% between 18 May and 31 December ( 5.6% YoY )
    That's a stunning recovery if this rate of recovery continues.

    Brisbane is within a whisker of moving back above the index value on the election date ( at this stage will translate into a -0.6% YoY change ).

    Screen Shot 2019-09-20 at 6.13.18 pm.png

    My graphs of movement in the index since the election on 18 May (rebased to election date).

    Screen Shot 2019-09-20 at 6.15.27 pm.png

    This graph covers full year to date for 2019 ( data rebased to the election date ).

    Screen Shot 2019-09-20 at 6.16.19 pm.png
     
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  12. Codie

    Codie Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for this. It would be really interesting to seperate Gold Coast from Brisbane, not sure if possible but there’s completely different sentiment & buyer activity between the 2 and i feel it would be dragging Brisbane down.
     
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  13. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Unfortunately unable for me to separate the data that CoreLogic provide for downloads.

    The SQM website has recently provided lots of nice charts.
     
  14. QldKoolies

    QldKoolies Well-Known Member

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    Was about to write same thing. It makes zero sense for anyone. Acknowledging that small sample sizes are not good and using gold coast may give the false impression that there is sufficient data for accurate trend analysis.
     
  15. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Things looking quite promising in Sydney - while an overall growth of around 10% in 6-7 months is quite astounding, individual sales in strong OO demand suburbs are now breaking new records - well above 2017 peak numbers in most cases and 25-30% above what the prices were prior to elections.

    $1.125m for a house on 250 sqm block with no backyard and 40km from Sydney CBD 2 Caballo Street, Beaumont Hills, NSW 2155

    $1.81m for a 4 bedroom house typical of suburb in terms of condition
    12 Josephine Crescent, Cherrybrook, NSW 2126

    Almost $1.5m for a 20 years old typical two storey Kellyville house which isn’t close to new train
    2 Proteus Place, Kellyville, NSW 2155
     
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  16. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Gold Coast isn’t dragging Brisbane down given its weight unless prices in Gold Coast are 20-30% down.

    I hate to say it but after accounting for two rate cuts and lending easing off, Brisbane is performing really poorly once again compared to Sydney and Melbourne. It’s actually much worse than last boom where compared to Sydney 15-20%, Brisbane was at 7-8% for 2-3 years.
     
  17. Blueshoes99

    Blueshoes99 Well-Known Member

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    The hills, especially Castle Hill and Cherrybrook is hitting $1.5 average for a normal house and $1.8-$2 for a nicer house.
     
  18. Triton

    Triton Well-Known Member

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    Check Melbourne clearance rates just out... With significant volume... Those wondering if the post election euphoria was a dead cat bounce probably have their question answered.
     
  19. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    This incomplete home in Kellyville sold at auction for $1.415M. Perhaps another $300k to spend according to the article ( seems high from photos in the article).

    Buyers see dream home in unfinished Kellyville build - realestate.com.au


    https://www.realestate.com.au/property/webview/21-hector-ct-kellyville-nsw-2155
     
  20. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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