House price increase from trough ... so far

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by wombat777, 1st Aug, 2019.

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  1. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    On Core Logic Daily Home Value index figures (end July) we have the following cities increasing in price:
    • Sydney - up 0.649% since 19 May (10 weeks of data)
    • Melbourne - up 0.559% since 6 June (8 weeks of data)
    • Brisbane - up 0.331% since 7 July (3.5 weeks of data)
    • 5-city aggregate - up 0.221% since 9 July (3 weeks of data)
    Separately from Core Logic
    • Canberra is up 1.06% year on year
    • Hobart is up 2.76% year on year
    • Perth is down 8.9% year on year
    • Adelaide is down 0.78% year on year
    • Darwin is down 8.71% year on year
     
  2. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    Lets start tracking

    Some peak and past reference charts
    CLI = 182 (oct 17, sydney house price)
    [​IMG]

    latest:
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    I don't have the May chart(bottom?) but here is Mar CLI figures

    [​IMG]



    here is the latest July 19 figures from core logic, lets use it as reference
    upload_2019-8-1_13-42-13.png

    So far
    Sydney House price
    • CLI = 182 (Oct 2017?) Peak
    • CLI = 154.85 (March 19)
    • CLI = 153 (May 19) (don't have exact number for this, potential bottom?)
    • CLI = 153 (Jun 19) Bottom? (don't have exact number for this, potential bottom?)
    • CLI = 153.28 (July 19)

    Lets track from here on
     
    Last edited: 1st Aug, 2019
  3. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    Declines are over.

    Post something original.
     
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  4. turk

    turk Well-Known Member

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    That's certainly a scary looking chart, hard to see a safe entry point into a long term investment such as property.:confused:
     
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  5. pvfv

    pvfv Active Member

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    Wow prices have gone up through the roof in recent times. No rams here to help this debt mountain.
     
    Last edited: 1st Aug, 2019
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  6. Danny370z

    Danny370z Well-Known Member

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    Perth.. still getting hammered
     
  7. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    It's quite clear from visualising the Core Logic Daily Index Data that Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have now turned.

    Sydney and Melbourne markets have been gradually rising for 9 to 10 weeks.

    Still very early days for Brisbane but the market there is just starting to show the same sort of trend that Sydney and Melbourne have set in the last 10 weeks.

    Even Adelaide might be starting to respond to rate cuts and the general property market sentiment change that occurred after the election.

    @Danny370z - rate of declines seem to be slowing in Perth. Look at the chart over the last 8-10 weeks.

    Screen Shot 2019-08-01 at 8.04.47 pm.png
     
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  8. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    Brisbane should have a big Spring. Autumn in suburbs I watch pretty much dead. Entire suburb with 3-4 sales in a month. July has seen 2-3x that.

    Still not a huge supply so could lead to a good end of the year.
     
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  9. Mr Burns

    Mr Burns Well-Known Member

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    Yeh it does if you were buying in 2017. The chart needs to show the next 2 years of price drops and then Sydney and Melbourne will look like better value.
     
  10. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Update of the charts posted last week ( the understanding is periodic data dumps from government departs cause spikes in data approx 6 weeks after end of each quarter).

    My summary below of % changes over various periods.
    • Over 1% change in Sydney and Melbourne in the last 28 days
    • If the rate of change over last 28 days continues then we'll see over 4.8% further lift in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne by the end of 2019.

    Screen Shot 2019-08-23 at 6.38.05 pm.png

    Chart below is based on the raw data from Core Logic but rebased to the election date.

    Screen Shot 2019-08-23 at 6.16.16 pm.png
     
  11. frankjeager

    frankjeager Well-Known Member

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    corelogic daily index showing big growth in sydney/melbourne. melb up.30 today alone
     
  12. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    I'll say what a lot of people are thinking.. Mt Druitt is up 10%. I'm basing that on my own observations.

    Not long ago there were plenty of houses under 400K. Now look at it, there's hardly any. You can't argue with facts like that.
     
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  13. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    I hear youse are building youse $5m mansion their.....any truth to dhat dats... ;)
     
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  14. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    Not yet! I've got to buy the house at the back first. Then build a drive through like Macca's where I can smoke 'em up from one street to another...yeah ha!

    Then the big mansion.
     
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  15. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Sydney has now increased 2.19% since the election and Melbourne 1.92% ( in just 104 days ).

    In the last 28 days the Sydney index has increased 1.58% and Melbourne 1.46%. If this rate of change continues then we will see a 9.2% and 8.34% variation in Sydney and Melbourne index values between election on 18 May and the end of 2019.

    Extrapolating the change for the last 28-days ... how would this look as a YoY change covering the 12-months from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019 ... well based on the last 28-days of change in the index:
    • Sydney = 4.2% YoY 2019
    • Melbourne = 3.7% YoY 2019
    • Brisbane = 1.0% YoY 2019
    • Adelaide = -2.4% YoY 2019
    • Perth = -9.0% YoY 2019
    • 5 city = 1.6% YoY 2019
    ( method used was to take today's index value and extrapolate it forward to calculate a forecast index value for end of year based on the rate of change for the last 28 days - from this I could then calculate a forecast change for 2019 )

    Data is from my own analysis of the changes in the Core Logic Daily Index.

    Screen Shot 2019-08-30 at 11.48.19 am.png

    My chart of the change in the index since the election on 18 May is below. Data has been rebased to this point. Rebasing helps to visualise the change.

    Brisbane is looking like it has turned and Adelaide is possibly showing early signs of turning positive.

    Screen Shot 2019-08-30 at 11.56.05 am.png
     
    Last edited: 30th Aug, 2019
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  16. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Having tracked previous recoveries (and declines), I find the speed of this recovery a bit scary. If annualised on a full year (from Election day to same day in 2020), we could be looking at 20% increase in prices for Sydney and Melbourne.

    Interesting to see lots of 'sideline money' finding comfort in the safety of brick & mortar!
     
  17. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I really don't expect this rate of climb to continue at that pace for more than a few months. Maybe slow down from December?
     
  18. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    by sideline money do you mean investor money?
     
  19. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    That would make it a very short cycle - interesting movements!!
     
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  20. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    No way - investors don’t cause market fluctuations. It’s the passive money that follows the market.
     
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