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House Price Expectations By State (Cycle Top in NSW, VIC & QLD?)

Discussion in 'General Property Chat' started by Bullion Baron, 15th Dec, 2015.

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  1. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member

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  2. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for sharing the information here mate.

    I don't have access to the website but yes I appreciate your efforts.
     
  3. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Amazing! I can't believe there are people who think WA will increase by more than 10%. Tell 'em they're dreaming! :)
     
  4. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

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    FHOBs buying in new estates being told that the end valuation will be 10% to 20% by the time construction is complete.
     
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  5. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I'm not that good at reading charts made by other people,but looking at the link one would think the bubble appears to be bursting,all of which adds more risk uncertainty to the economic picture for the real estate markets,at least those outside the small pockets of real estate that are market within markets..thanks for the link..
     
  6. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member

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    hmmm they locked this article down to subscribers only, it was open when I posted the link. Here are a few more interesting charts that were in the update:

    113.png

    312.png


    112.png
     
  7. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member

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    Certainly a sharp decline in sentiment across the board (nearly), interestingly the Perth survey recorded a decline in overall expectations that prices will fall. Perhaps it was just an anomaly, but if expectations of falls continue to decline then a bottom for Perth may be on the horizon for 2016 (if previous patterns are followed).
     
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  8. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Hard to say,every street in Australia is different,and with investment -public debt at record levels ,and if growth is not strong enough to pull everything along something may give,plus the real estate market on a whole,even with the slow global demand for Australia exports has gone through low volatility in the past 15 years,the next 15 may have a few bumps in the road..
     
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  9. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member

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    Agree @willair that the next 15 years is unlikely to look like the last 15, in fact I would say it a near impossibility we repeat that growth again (in real terms) given where private debt levels and interest rates are.
     
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  10. SerenityNow

    SerenityNow Well-Known Member

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    So... if you were in shopping mode for a couple of IP's (got the serviceability and deposits, etc) would you hold off on purchasing? I'm assuming the answer from most in this forum would be, "I'd still purchase because my chosen suburb is set for growth"?
     
  11. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    wow macrobusiness are forecasting a downturn...who would have thunk it :)
     
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  12. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I agree it is highly unlikely for the next 15 years to be like the previous 15 years in terms of growth. I will certainly not be basing my investment decisions on the assumption that the next 15 years will be a repeat of the last 15 years. I don't buy into the bubble/crash hysteria though.
     
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  13. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Exactly. They wont tell you, "hmm gee, the next 10 years doesn't look like its going to have a repeat of the last 10 years growth, HOWEVER there are definitely certain things you can do to significantly increase your chances of building wealth in the next 10 years with the risk mitigated nonetheless."

    You'll never hear that. The punters are not focused on building wealth. They are focused on their own agenda whatever it may be, but not actually building wealth.

    just my opinion.
     
  14. Player

    Player Well-Known Member

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    ^
    ^
    ^
    ^
    This.

    I also don't buy into the hysteria however short of some unlikely stellar wage growth compounding for a five year window or thereabouts, prices will probably in a generic sense soften and/or track sideways for a while. There has been too much cheap money flooding the market and those fed up with bank deposit rates have chased higher yield not only in property but also in listed instruments.

    I don't know whether easing policies are now the new normal and if they are then the frenzy chasing yield will continue and so capital growth will possibly persist in property and stocks. We also have an RBA governor who thinks he can control our currency by dropping the cash rate. LOL. This has also fed the bonfire over the past couple of years. If easing here and globally does continue to be the new normal then a burst might indeed be on the cards. I banged on about this here and on Somersoft for some time................stoke your offsets (and/or have some cash) and be prepared for any opportunities that may present whether median priced IP's or in stocks and the like. Sensible LVR's are also prudent at the moment. None of this is advice merely...................my 0.02
     
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  15. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    dreamin'.... living in lala land
     
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  16. big max

    big max Well-Known Member

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  17. Tim & Chrissy

    Tim & Chrissy Well-Known Member

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    This is 'expectations' not based on actual results. I had trouble reading it at first as well, it's all over the place because the opinions were all over the place and the survey was also carried out pre-2010.

    Take it with a grain of salt.