House price decline from peak... so far

Rising tide lifts every one and all that - quite easy to find opportunities
Falling market - much harder and also easy to get burned
Flat market - harder but not that hard.

I've made money in the 2012-14 mini-boom in Perth. I've also made money in the recent Melbourne boom. Exited both markets when I saw the writing on the wall. Happy to take profits than trying to squeeze every last bit. I get fearful when others are greedy with FOMO and hype-frenzy when the market peaks.

I also get greedy when others are fearful. Every man and his dog are talking about how bad Perth market is with no bottom in sight. I just finished my 3rd purchase. Started buying a bit over a year ago. Huge price drops and plenty of choices means = kid in a candy shop. A few more and I'll stop before the interstate investors come in. When will Perth market turn again? - Your guess is as good as mine.

When Melbourne and Sydney markets bottom out and sentiment is at an all time low, trust that I'll come shopping again.

 

Last 18 years of successful investing and wealth creation . That's my source buddy.

 

T'was a little joke. Pointing out the irony of saying data and stats don't matter using a stat.

But to be honest, it's semantics. Comparables are data too, just micro. Due diligence is looking at macro through to micro, but "markets within markets" refrain is a little redundant for Syd and Melb right now as all their markets have are falling, some just started later.

 

Brisbane peak completely wrong, but anyhow...

 

The point was to show an example where a market does not recover in even nominal terms above its previous peak after almost two decades. No comparison to residential property was being made.

2019 should show just how bad things in Europe are. If the Brits were to wait long enough there will be no EU. Watch this space.

 

I'm always a big fan of markets within markets mate .There are plenty of applications . Eg, yes i agree most of Syd is correcting but then some markets more than others and then some stock types more than others. Also , some markets will have a higher probability of further falls and longer in duration . These are all markets within markets and can be very useful for assessing buying opportunities and trying to better time purchases .

 

touché

 

With all due respect, those areas that are actually in Melbourne, are falling. Frankston is falling, Clayton, your link says up 13%... according to what? Houses are down -17% yoy according to Corelogic data... Is Phillip Island booming? I dunno, but I can tell you it's not in Melbourne. Some places are up yoy sure, the lower end of the market jumped at first but it's started falling now.

 

Very true mate. I'm sure a savvy enough investor can suss out a profit in almost any market. I'm not at that level, need the lower hanging fruit

 

To me lower hanging fruit currently is a house with add value potential in middle ring Brisbane

 

If the current credit environment does turn out to be the new normal then I think that will be the model for property investing. Buy something with enough cash flow to cover holding costs, make your money out of modest capital gains because house price growth is largely limited by wages growth. Certainly none of this house prices doubling every 7-10 years.

 

"When housing data is adjusted for the effects of inflation, it provides valuable insight, especially in the context of nominal dwelling values now falling across the country. Note that in the following analysis all data is adjusted for national CPI"











Real Home Values Are Falling Across Most Capital Cities

 

is it naive of me to think that incorporating CPI just paints too much of a negative filter over the

that last graph is a good one, but it sort of only shows a <4 quarters for melb and syd

a bit hard to compare

 

What app is that?

 

RP data subscription

 

Thanks

 

33% real decline from peak for Perth, ouch. It's been a long slow grind.
These charts really illustrate how Sydney & Melbourne have been an aberration, and that there hasn't really been much house price growth in Australia outside of these centres over the past decade.

 

What about my 55% growth properties over the last 4 years in Brisbane's south? Or my 22% growth property in the North over the last 15 months, to name a few.

Most of these graphs are just economic porn portraits for economists to enjoy. While they often will tell you part of the picture, it's what they DONT tell you (which is a hellvalot) which is the grossly misleading part. I wouldnt put too much stock into most of them.