House price decline from peak... so far

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by TheSackedWiggle, 5th Feb, 2019.

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  1. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

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    Rising tide lifts every one and all that - quite easy to find opportunities
    Falling market - much harder and also easy to get burned
    Flat market - harder but not that hard.

    I've made money in the 2012-14 mini-boom in Perth. I've also made money in the recent Melbourne boom. Exited both markets when I saw the writing on the wall. Happy to take profits than trying to squeeze every last bit. I get fearful when others are greedy with FOMO and hype-frenzy when the market peaks.

    I also get greedy when others are fearful. Every man and his dog are talking about how bad Perth market is with no bottom in sight. I just finished my 3rd purchase. Started buying a bit over a year ago. Huge price drops and plenty of choices means = kid in a candy shop. A few more and I'll stop before the interstate investors come in. When will Perth market turn again? - Your guess is as good as mine.

    When Melbourne and Sydney markets bottom out and sentiment is at an all time low, trust that I'll come shopping again.
     
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  2. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Last 18 years of successful investing and wealth creation . That's my source buddy. ;)
     
  3. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    T'was a little joke. Pointing out the irony of saying data and stats don't matter using a stat.

    But to be honest, it's semantics. Comparables are data too, just micro. Due diligence is looking at macro through to micro, but "markets within markets" refrain is a little redundant for Syd and Melb right now as all their markets have are falling, some just started later.
     
    Last edited: 7th Feb, 2019
  4. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    Brisbane peak completely wrong, but anyhow...
     
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  5. kitdoctor

    kitdoctor Well-Known Member

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    The point was to show an example where a market does not recover in even nominal terms above its previous peak after almost two decades. No comparison to residential property was being made.

    2019 should show just how bad things in Europe are. If the Brits were to wait long enough there will be no EU. Watch this space.
     
  6. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    How strange, I thought I saw some posts indicating otherwise.... :p
    VIC - Frankston 2019
    VIC - Booming prices in Phillip Island 2018/2019
    Multimillion-dollar water views
    Top Growth Suburbs January 2019
    Top growth suburbs February 2019
    A snap shot of what is happening on the ground in Melbourne

    The Y-man
     
  7. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I'm always a big fan of markets within markets mate .There are plenty of applications . Eg, yes i agree most of Syd is correcting but then some markets more than others and then some stock types more than others. Also , some markets will have a higher probability of further falls and longer in duration . These are all markets within markets and can be very useful for assessing buying opportunities and trying to better time purchases .
     
    Last edited: 7th Feb, 2019
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  8. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    touché:p
     
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  9. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    With all due respect, those areas that are actually in Melbourne, are falling. Frankston is falling, Clayton, your link says up 13%... according to what? Houses are down -17% yoy according to Corelogic data... Is Phillip Island booming? I dunno, but I can tell you it's not in Melbourne. Some places are up yoy sure, the lower end of the market jumped at first but it's started falling now.
     
  10. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Not me BTW! :D

    The Y-man
     
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  11. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Very true mate. I'm sure a savvy enough investor can suss out a profit in almost any market. I'm not at that level, need the lower hanging fruit :)
     
    Last edited: 7th Feb, 2019
  12. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    To me lower hanging fruit currently is a house with add value potential in middle ring Brisbane:)
     
    Last edited: 7th Feb, 2019
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  13. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

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    If the current credit environment does turn out to be the new normal then I think that will be the model for property investing. Buy something with enough cash flow to cover holding costs, make your money out of modest capital gains because house price growth is largely limited by wages growth. Certainly none of this house prices doubling every 7-10 years.
     
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  14. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    "When housing data is adjusted for the effects of inflation, it provides valuable insight, especially in the context of nominal dwelling values now falling across the country. Note that in the following analysis all data is adjusted for national CPI"

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    Real Home Values Are Falling Across Most Capital Cities
     
  15. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    is it naive of me to think that incorporating CPI just paints too much of a negative filter over the
    that last graph is a good one, but it sort of only shows a <4 quarters for melb and syd

    a bit hard to compare
     
  16. Dmarkw

    Dmarkw Well-Known Member

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    What app is that?
     
  17. Gockie

    Gockie Problem solver Premium Member

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    RP data subscription
     
  18. Dmarkw

    Dmarkw Well-Known Member

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    Thanks
     
  19. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

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    33% real decline from peak for Perth, ouch. It's been a long slow grind.
    These charts really illustrate how Sydney & Melbourne have been an aberration, and that there hasn't really been much house price growth in Australia outside of these centres over the past decade.
     
  20. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    What about my 55% growth properties over the last 4 years in Brisbane's south? Or my 22% growth property in the North over the last 15 months, to name a few.

    Most of these graphs are just economic porn portraits for economists to enjoy. While they often will tell you part of the picture, it's what they DONT tell you (which is a hellvalot) which is the grossly misleading part. I wouldnt put too much stock into most of them.
     
    Last edited: 13th Feb, 2019 at 10:10 AM