House price decline from peak... so far

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by TheSackedWiggle, 5th Feb, 2019.

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  1. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    Respective peak by cities:
    • Sydney: Jun-17
    • Melbourne: Dec-17
    • Brisbane: Mar-08
    • Adelaide: Jun-10
    • Perth: Dec-06
    • Darwin: Mar-13
    • Canberra: Jun-10
    • Combined Capitals: Sep-17
    • National: Jun-17

    [​IMG]

    Source: corelogic / Cameron Kusher (@cmkusher) | Twitter
     
  2. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Thanks for sharing be interesting to see the next 12 months
     
  3. Gockie

    Gockie Problem solver Premium Member

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    So Peth has been down that much since Dec 06? Big ouch.

    I would have thought Brisbane's peak would have been after March 08, I guess the 2011 floods stopped it from peaking again later.
     
  4. Peppas

    Peppas Well-Known Member

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    Do you have data for the respective bottoms as well?
     
  5. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    So does this mean Brissy done nothing since 08?
     
  6. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Real values=adjusted for 11 years of inflation.
     
  7. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    Ok. I still would take this data with a grain of salt. It baffles me Hobart is a neat 0%...
     
  8. Tonibell

    Tonibell Well-Known Member

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    I think that just means it is currently at its all time peak.
     
  9. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    True. But would have been more accurate to completely remove it.
     
  10. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Time to buy in Perth? oh wait...
     
  11. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    It is mostly nonsense. I have had 30-60% gains with my properties over the last 4 years in Brissy. If you look at these stats it makes the markets look dead when in reality many savvy investors dont buy at peak times and buy good deals , value add etc etc. Anyway i take 95% of most stats posted with half a grain of salt.
     
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  12. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    No, i am sure some markets have moved in Brissy, it will possibly be a certain product, older houses in desirable inner city locations??? I heard Holland pk performed in double digit?? Perhaps others know more than me I am not an expert on Brissy

    If you look at Perth stats peaked dec 2006 this is correct, however there was a short boom 2 year boom between 2013-2014. These stats are not showing this? Why stats too broad, you can never get it right. I know this i was buying/developing in this boom cycle

    Take it with a grain of salt
     
  13. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Bought 4 years ago 3 properties in Holland Park and growth has been 50% plus to date.
     
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  14. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Nice
     
  15. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Makes one wonder with this data,as the bcc rates bills which I have just paid and ucv values in the wife""s name have not gone down some over 100k increase in the last year alone then they jack up the rates ,that's the mistake when people bury themselves in useless statistics..
     
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  16. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    It depends on the area but pretty much yes. Ouch for sellers. Not so much ouch for buyers ;)
     
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  17. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Yes and No
    Perth is a fragmented market

    There was a boom in 2013-14 in the main driven by FHB changes to stamp
    Duty. Stats dont show this

    however blue chip $1.5m+ still not recovered since dec 2016
     
  18. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

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    I think because in real terms (inflation adjusted) 2006 values were higher than 2014, although nominal values in 2014 were higher. E.g. $450K in 2006 dollars was actually worth more than $500K in 2014 dollars thanks to inflation, or whatever the true numbers may be.
     
  19. Shogun

    Shogun Well-Known Member

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  20. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    You would be much better off checking suburb by suburb data to have a better more detailed picture of what's happening on the ground.
    For example, established suburbs with mostly Owner Occupier properties who don't need to sell or who bought ions ago shouldn't drop as much if at all in the current environment.

    But in general, these are some healthy drops and should keep going down for a while too by the looks of things
     
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