Hindsight mindset: collapse/correction

I was making the point that until recently there were people in denial, thinking that the price falls in Sydney and Melbourne could or would not affect their properties. I've seen it in Perth over the last five years, it takes a while for reality to set it. I agree if you are holding 10 - 20 years it doesn't really matter, aside from ability to access equity until the market improves, and then only if you bought in the last three years. But that's not really a 'markets within markets' mentality, it's a long term property cycle strategy. But broadly speaking, these two capital city markets were/are overvalued by pretty much every metric.

I don't know much about the Sydney market at a suburb-by-suburb level, you'd know better than me. I'm sure there will be a handful of suburbs that buck the trend.

 

Saying the same thing in 2008 GFC, most markets fell back, apart from Melb.

Just part of the cycle, just different reason today why it is falling back, credit squeeze, we just don't know how long it will last and actual impact on each State..... it will be dependent on many variables

Main thing is don't buy at peak or assume market recovery will be swift, historical data proves otherwise. Sit tight this time will pass

 

Im still trying to work out for melb whehter Melbourne still has a lot to drop or we are near the bottoms

 

Global economy going to have a rough 6 months at least, don't think any chance of a reversal until 6-12 months which means continuing falls to come.

Stock market leads the way in terms of the real economy.. haven't quite hit capitulation, but maybe getting close.

 

All you need to know is not to buy, its sit and watch.... it will be dependent on and when credit squeeze eases.... until then do nothing

I expect Melb will be soft landing unless you have major oversupply perhaps outer burbs land and house cookie cutter stuff. ???


Then again I could be wrong

 

Doubtful. Melb and Syd fell 1.6% in the last month. The falls are accelerating and headwinds both local and international are increasing.

I was planning to buy early next year but will likely sit 2019 out now.

 

I hope you are right.
Im looking at bayside and another 10% drop wpuld allow me to almost buy my dream ppor

At the moment im looking at entry level
I feeel there is about 10% fall so far

My gut feel is the majority of falls is done

 

What is the tldr? often these property shows ride out these interviews to fill in our time as he points out at the start of the video they were going to have a meandering discussion. did you listen to the whole thing and can summarise please

 

Bayside is down about 12% on average: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-property-sydney-melbourne-price-falls-2018-12 but with the clearance rates where they are and the steepening declines over the past two months there's no way it's over yet.

 

Q1 and q2 2019 will be the worst of it me thinks.

 

I hope you are right, as Im ready to pounce!

it would be interesting to see in hindishg, which price ranges fell the most/least AND which price range started to fall first/last

 

Im at the start of my second cycle of investment (yes im a baby considering my age)

But ive learnt/trying not to get swayed by biased/incorrect/.emotional media articles of doom and gloom, it seems every cyle, there is a immense amount of talk about the biggest fall/collapse coming up,

I now try to ignore the most of the articles, but acknowledge that obviously we are in a downturn

as to the extent, I am still unsure