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Herron Todd White - July monthly report - interesting property clock??

Discussion in 'General Property Chat' started by Mac Fields, 1st Jul, 2016.

  1. Mac Fields

    Mac Fields Well-Known Member

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    Comparing the HTW July property clock (http://htw.com.au/Downloads/Files/283-Month-in-Review-July-2016.pdf) to June's proeprty clock (http://htw.com.au/Downloads/Files/282-Month_In_Review_June_2016.pdf), it seems as though they have different analysts this month, or typos or ???

    Sydney houses went from start of decline in June to a rising market in July??
    Canberra houses went from a rising market in June to the start of a decline in July??

    I haven't read the commentary between the 2 reports but if I followed this month's cycle for Sydney, either I would be eagerly reviewing RE.com.au for another quick purchase or doing a quick reno in readiness to sell one of my current Sydney IPs in the next few months!

    Has anyone seen any price changes or market movements to support/deny the July HTW property cycle?
     
  2. mcarthur

    mcarthur Well-Known Member

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    Interesting - Sydney has moved quite a lot hasn't it!
    Coff Harbour's run has only lasted a month as well.
    I follow Canberra houses a bit, and haven't seen any indication of a start of decline, as an overall statement anyway. I would have left it at 9pm.

    Their clock does seem to be getting irrelevent - not because of the concept, which I quite like, but because of their accuracy.
     
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  3. Mac Fields

    Mac Fields Well-Known Member

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    I would agree, I'm questioning the relevance of the clock seeing the swing this month. I'll have a read of the commentary to see if there's anything to back up the placements on the clock.

    I'm interested that Canberra has moved to the start of a decline - I would have thought that an election (and the month after) could trigger more jobs (or at least stablisation) as the new government (either returning or incoming) gets some runs on the board.

    I'll keep following the PC clock.
     
  4. Angel

    Angel Well-Known Member

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    Don't hold your breath thinking HTW are infallible. I refinanced at the start of this year and they did a few valuations for my new bank. They classed my three bedroom townhouse as having two bedrooms and valued it about $70K less than several local RE agents had told me it was worth.
     
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  5. turk

    turk Well-Known Member

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    It would seem that there is good reason for moving the Sydney clock back to a rising market,



    Property prices have showed no signs of abating, with Sydney and Melbourne apartment and house prices surging over the latest quarter, data released on Friday shows.


    In the three months to June, property prices surged 6.8 per cent in Sydney

    Property prices continue to surge in 2016
     
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  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I guess the clocks are just a guide, the proof in the pudding is what is happening on the ground, this clock wont give you this information and most will be 3 months behind what is happening.

    Lesson to learn, dig deeper and you will find the answer.

    MTR:)
     
    Last edited: 1st Jul, 2016
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  7. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    People still want to buy Sydney property, even with this massive boom from the past 3 years.... :)
     
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  8. Mac Fields

    Mac Fields Well-Known Member

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    I liked using the HTW clocks as a first cut for where each state is at, then dig further into the individual suburbs from there. I'm now a little confused as I stayed away from markets that were between 10 around to 6 on the HTW clock, but now they seem to be moving all over the place!

    Always good to keep the prices stable for current owners!
     
  9. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Hmm. Interesting sydney houses go from 12 to 9 in a short time frame. .
     
  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    As long as you understand that these are guides only and behind the 8 ball, perhaps this is why you are confused.
     
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  11. Mac Fields

    Mac Fields Well-Known Member

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    mmm, cheers. I think I'll just use the PC o'meter as my guide (and general reading) rather than tools where I can't see the background work.
     
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  12. big max

    big max Well-Known Member

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    Gold Coast has peaked? That is absolute BS. No way has it peaked. What were they thinking???
     
  13. teetotal

    teetotal Well-Known Member

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    From price perspective, Sydney is still holding some growth (especially Hills area, where i m on the ground helping a friend) however i do see a lack of interest in properties now. As such they stay on market for slightly longer than boom period.

    Will also be interesting to see election results, as Labour win could cause another short boom for established properties.
     
  14. truong

    truong Well-Known Member

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    Don’t worry, this clock can go backwards! :rolleyes:
     
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  15. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    And regularly does.... I wouldn't read too much into it, HTW obviously doesn't.:p
     
  16. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    Month to month sentiment in cities can drastically change... very quickly interest rates and APRA can affect some cities sentiment (i'm looking at Sydney when saying this).

    But elsewhere in other cities jobs may be a far bigger concern and that is a slow moving beast... it wont change overnight.

    Therefore I feel the movement in the clock for Sydney has merit. Sentiment can shift on a dime. Interest rate cuts in largely unaffordable Sydney means Sydney gets a second wind. Some month to month changes are very odd though... recent Brisbane movements in the clock would make the majority scratch their heads...
     
    Last edited: 2nd Jul, 2016
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  17. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    All true...but you are giving it more attention than HTW do IMO.:D
     
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  18. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    I reckon HTW have people on the ground in all these places. But they are not all the same people, (one person cannot intimately know all of Australia). Maybe the classification lacks some objectivity/lacks a set of formal rules? Maybe some are prone to overstating change? I don't know their methodology.... Just my thoughts.
     
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  19. Luka

    Luka Well-Known Member

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    I think the Gold Coast in general is one HTW actually got right. I would have expected Brisbane to be somewhere between 9-12.

    It's so erratic, it's a fun chart for a bit of a giggle
     
  20. Special order

    Special order Well-Known Member

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    Seems strange Logan isn't on there, must have its own special clock somewhere