Here's my portfolio. Which fund(s) would you top up?

Here is the current state of my 10-fund portfolio after some very bullish market conditions. They are ordered from highest value to lowest value, and the % figures are the annual returns. Initial selection criteria (growth and risk targets) were similar for all funds.



I'm very interested in what other PC members would do, given the choice to make additional investments into 3 of these funds (or fewer).

Which fund(s) would you top up?

 

Do you have current charts?

Personally, I'd be looking to top up the ones that are growing, as counter intuitive as that seems. I prefer to add to positions that are gaining rather than losing, but ideally early in their growth rather than when the trend is nearing the end. As it gets chopper/more indecisive, I'd lighten up.

 

Impossible to say without looking at the individual funds - ie. would I invest in any of them. Short term fund performance is a very poor yardstick for assessing viability of the investment over the long term. Fooled by randomness etc.

 

+ 1

I looked at this and just assumed you had forgotten to include any information on the funds...

 

This is more about a scenario where after thorough research, you've hand-picked 10 funds, made initial investments, seen the above results after a few years, and then want to make additional investments.

All 10 funds still satisfy the same long-term investment viability criteria (whatever you want, low fees, morningstar ratings, distribution history, etc)

Which ones do you invest further into?

 

With the information provided. None.

 

I must be doing something wrong then, if the experts on this forum think the information provided is not enough. I see 3 glaring opportunities here but maybe what I'm not conveying properly is the fact that all 10 funds satisfy my personal investment viability criteria, so I already have confidence in each of them and they all fit into a unified strategy with target asset class allocations.

I'm curious though, what minimum information would you need to see for each fund to make a decision?

 

I haven't kept charts personally; I was using InvestSmart initially but turns out they don't have a method of correctly recording distribution reinvestments so that's now out the window (they say they must be recorded as additional purchases, i.e. incurring a cost when they actually didn't.)

My goals are the same... try to find funds that are growing and ride an upward trend before it runs out of steam. That worked for one fund but not for others Conversely I tried buying what I thought was undervalued, thinking it will be more likely to go up, but that didn't work either.

Currently using a modified version of value-averaging that has worked reliably.... so far

 

I really have no idea what you are doing or what you are after, but as long as you do that's all the matters.

If you are a momentum trader you will follow whats going up (though odd to be doing this with managed funds). If you are a value investor, you'll be buying whats beaten up. Mean reversion suggests you should buy the 3 worst performers...and then the question is how much performance comes from the manager, and how much from the factor or randomness?Im not sure how you can draw conclusions, in such a short time frame and certainly i cant with the info provided.

 

I have enough confidence in my own strategy to commit my own money to it, but I would not say I know what I am doing And it would definitely not be to everyone else's liking.

When I started this thread I thought others would have different inclinations for further investment and I was interested in what those were. To my surprise the option I needed most was "not enough information" That has been eye-opening in itself.

Although the numbers above are short-term, they belong to investments chosen on long-term performance... and then short-term movements after purchase used to decide which fund is built up next and how fast. My strategy leans more towards value investing going by your descriptions.

Agree that funds are too slow to momentum trade, but momentum trading feels like gambling to me anyway.