Here we go again...

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MyPropertyPro, 8th Mar, 2017.

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  1. MyPropertyPro

    MyPropertyPro REBAA Buyer's Agents Sutherland Shire & Surrounds Business Member

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  2. Ted Varrick

    Ted Varrick Well-Known Member

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    PG, reading the comments in online news articles is generally more painful than bowling into the nearest pub, picking the biggest and meanest looking bloke, and, pointing and shouting at him, " Hey! ********, you look like a cupcake mate!"...
     
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  3. Guest

    Guest Guest

    Perhaps. Though I think complex structuring would put many off. The bottom line is that I think it's reasonable to treat some assets differently, so if excessive property investment / speculation continued post changes then more could be done.
     
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  4. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I found a paper for you:

    A historical study including data from 1870 to 2010, partly based on historical data from Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data for seventeen selected advanced economies, found that private-‐debt-‐to-‐GDP ratios remained in the range of 50-‐60 per cent until 1980, but increased to 118 per cent in 2010 (Jorda et al., 2014). This swelling debt was primarily based on mortgage debt. The ratio of mortgage-‐debt-‐to-‐outstanding-‐private-‐loans increased from around 30 per cent in the period 1900-‐1960 to 60 per cent in 2010. While non-‐mortgage bank loans remained stable around respectively 41 and 46 per cent of GDP between 1914 and 2010, mortgage loans increased from 20 to 64 per cent of GDP in the same period (Jorda et al., 2014). These statistics clearly show that the increase in private debt was formed primarily on the back of real estate. This should have implications for the way in which political economic changes are perceived in the age of financialization.

    It's interesting because this is the first time I have seen it argued that there is a direct link between funded pension schemes (Superannuation in Australia) and rising house prices.

    From a different perspective, the supply-‐side, we see that a ‘wall of money’, a global pool of liquid assets, seeks investment opportunities. There are four different sources that have been feeding this wall of money. First, the increasing pool of assets by institutional investors, characterized as ‘pension fund capitalism’ (Blackburn, 2002; Clark, 2000; 2003; Drucker, 1976) or ‘money manager capitalism’ (Minsky, 1996). This rise represented an increase from 36 per cent of global financial assets in 1995 to 44 per cent in 2005 (BIS, 2007) and 114 per cent of global GDP in 2009 (IMF, 2011a). The main argument in this debate is that the build-‐up of funded pension schemes in particular countries—notably US, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, Singapore and Chile—and other institutionalized savings vehicles, like insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds, resulted in a growing pool of savings relative to their respective GDPs. These vast pools of capital lacked the required liquid domestic markets and therefore started to diversify globally in search of yield in the 1990s. This source is directly linked to demographic change.

    It's a fascinating read and I highly recommend it.

    https://www.researchgate.net/profil...Capitalism/links/56b0753b08ae8e37214e87ad.pdf
     
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