Has Warren Buffett Lost His Touch?

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by Redwing, 10th Jul, 2020.

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  1. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Apple has performed spectacularly well compared to the rest of his portfolio. Clearly he's not a big fan of rebalancing. I wouldn't be comfortable holding that much Apple stock though.

    Buffett hasn't been able to pick up too many cigar butts in a while. As a result, he's at least been honest with his shareholders since about 2000 to expect more "market like" returns from Berkshire Hathaway due to asset bloat and how hard it is to move the needle in any significant way. Since 2002 for instance Berkshire came close to the market, but still underperformed the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX).

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. oracle

    oracle Well-Known Member

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    So with all of the high flying growth stocks coming back to ground Berkshire ain't doing too bad compared to S&P500 since 2020.

    Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if Berkshire handsomely outperforms the S&P500 over the next few years. Remember, his style is to bet big during bear markets (which we are in now).

    Cheers,
    Oracle.
     
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  3. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: 10th Nov, 2022
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  4. iloveqld

    iloveqld Well-Known Member

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    Interesting to read this thread, let's revisit all of these arguments above after the current credit crunch as we can clearly see the affects on crypto and growth/speculative stocks...
    PS: I am a stock viewer only (love to watch and play but don't invest) and a WB died-hard fan for more than a decade.
     
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  5. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    upload_2023-7-7_14-50-28.png
     
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  6. Robbo80

    Robbo80 Well-Known Member

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  7. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    I'd also like to petition for a wage rise for wazza

    He also repaid $50k to cover the cost of personal calls and postage
     
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  8. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    Berkshire Hathaway reported $147 Billion in Cash on their Balance Sheet

    Warren Buffett is trying to tell us something about the economy with Berkshire Hathaway’s earnings and the $147 billion of cash on hand

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  9. Ruby Tuesday

    Ruby Tuesday Well-Known Member

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    Dunno what credit crunch you're talking about, NDQ is up 40% since this post,some stocks much more Nividia is up 400%. Not taking a position guarantees missing out
     
    Last edited: 8th Aug, 2023
  10. iloveqld

    iloveqld Well-Known Member

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    Nobody knows at that time and you can read above to see how many ppl questioning WB :)
    Turning out buying in in 2020 was a great move.
     
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  11. Andrew Allen

    Andrew Allen Well-Known Member Business Member

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    WB turning 93 this month!

    The BH portfolio is 70% in the top 4 holdings. The cash holding are equal to the AAPL stake.. so they should do ok regardless as will be able to pick up good buys when they appear in a large market correction might be the WB method at work.
     
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  12. Gmfren

    Gmfren Well-Known Member

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    "You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant"
    -Warren Buffett
     
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  13. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    Losing with a Losing Hand

    The question is: If Warren Buffett has periods of underperformance, why would you expect anything differently for your personal portfolio?
     
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  14. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    Why would anyone compare funds that just buy stocks to BRK which has a completely different business model?
    Other than the index as a reference there's not much similar in listed LICs or people with his advantages.

    See's profits growth from 1977 to 1999, x1000
    12,840
    12,482
    15,475
    21,891
    23,884
    27,411
    26,644
    28,989
    30,347
    31,693
    32,473
    34,235
    39,580
    42,390
    42,357
    41,150
    50.200
    51.900
    59,000
    65,000
    74,000
    He missed investing in dental supplies though.
     
  15. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    upload_2024-3-3_3-3-44.png

     
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  16. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    Surely that's fake news!?:eek:
    Buffett never sells, all the buffetologists say, more like yell at everyone to never sell :confused:
     
  17. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Don't bet on it ....last time as the article was during the internet era...he had the last laugh.
     
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  18. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    Warren Buffet's latest buys and sells

     
  19. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    There's a long list of stocks ole Wazza sold over the years, here's some.

    Affiliated Pub
    Aluminim Comp
    Amerada
    American Broadc
    Arcata
    Beatrice
    Capital Cities
    Champion
    Cleveland iron
    Crum & Forster
    Exxon
    Fred mac
    Gannett
    GATX
    General Dynamics
    General Foods
    Gillette
    Gov Emp.
    Guiness
    Handy & H
    Interpublic
    Kaiser Aluminum
    Kaiser Ind
    Knight-Ridder
    Lear Siegler
    Media gen
    Nat Detriot
    Nat Student
    Northwest Ind
    Ogilvy
    Pinkertons
    PNC Ban
    RJR
    SAFECO
    Time
    Times Mirror
    USAir
    Wash Post
    WoolWorth
    Wellls Fargo
     
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  20. dunno

    dunno Well-Known Member

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    Many so called Buffetoligists miss the nuance in Buffett’s ‘buy as if never need to sell’ message for ‘never selling’.

    Maybe best explained as a simple story.

    You have a cow – it produces $1 of milk a day, it will produce for 1,000 days. If a Muppet will sell it to you for $750 then you can get your return without ever needing to sell.

    Now if you get 500 days down the road and some Muppet will give you $750 for your cow that only has 500 days of production left then you would be stupid to not sell to said Muppet and it hasn’t breached the buy as if to hold for ever rule.

    Also true is if you get 500 days down the road and with your heightened insight from owning realise you were initially wrong and the cow will only produce for 600 days total and at that point Mr Muppet is there offering $250 to get his perceived bargain, then once again you would be crazy to not sell and again wouldn’t have breached your ‘buy as if never to sell rule’

    If you buy never needing to sell you have optionality to sell and make even greater return/ get out of mistake if a Muppet comes along.

    If you paid more than $1,000 initially – you need a Muppet to come along to get a return or you need better than originally expected milk production.

    I buy direct shares based on never needing to sell – But I also sell when it makes sense. I don’t see the contradiction. I don't think Buffett Would either.

    Now where are those Muppets gone.